Republican Debates

[HALL85]

With all the build-up to the debates on Thursday, this has all the makings of a Mayweather/Pacquio let down.

At the kids table, the only candidate that I like Carly Fiorina. Self-made and she has actually accomplished a lot and has that ability to connect. VP candidates don't have much of a positive effect on the outcome, but I could see her as a VP choice for the Republican winner. Everyone else in that group has very little to postively distinguish themselves IMO.

My guess is that Trump, Walker, Kasich will build momentum off the debate. Trumps message of "anti-politician" is resonating and Kasich may be the one that ends up drafting off that since he is a nuts and bolts, common sense, get-it-done guy that works well across the aisle...and he has a very good record.

Jeb is certainly capable but is having Romney-type connection problem...you can only mis-speak so many times as a politician (although Trump gets a pretty unlimited amount of bogeys)...I see Jeb continuing to drop with the first three above taking his share. I get the feeling that Paul, Cruz and Huckabee have hit their ceiling. My pick is for Rubio and Carson as potentials to break into that top group.

 

[Merge]

I'll disagree slightly. I think Trump has hit his ceiling of support. People who already like him will continue to do so and the people who don't like him will see all of the reasons they don't like him. Trump definitely will make it interesting though.

Biggest opportunity is Jeb because a lot of people still only know him in name only, and the ones who don't probably expect to hear someone like his brother and he is a significantly better speaker than his brother was so he has the opportunity to impress as long as he is prepared and I expect he will be. I still think Jeb will win the nomination.

This is a practice stage for Fiorina. They will be vetting her for the VP spot with her ability to handle a debate. I think she will do well and would probably be a good choice for the GOP.

 

[HALL85]

Merge, I thought the same thing about Trump originally too but despite the Mexican rapist and John McCain dis, his numbers keep climbing and those that said they wouldn't vote for him keep shrinking. I don't expect him to win the nomination but he will stay (and continue to lead) the top 4-5 coming out of the debate.

Bush just does not look comfortable and he is the profile that Trump is attacking. Each candidate has about five minutes of time and I don't think that favors Bush.

 

[Seton75]

With all the build-up to the debates on Thursday, this has all the makings of a Mayweather/Pacquio let down.

At the kids table, the only candidate that I like Carly Fiorina. Self-made and she has actually accomplished a lot and has that ability to connect. VP candidates don't have much of a positive effect on the outcome, but I could see her as a VP choice for the Republican winner. Everyone else in that group has very little to postively distinguish themselves IMO.

Fiorina was an awful CEO - here s a blurb from Wikapedia:

"In 2002, Fiorina undertook the biggest high-tech merger in history, with rival computer company Compaq, which made HP the world's largest personal computer manufacturer.[4][5] HP gained market share following the merger and subsequently laid off 30,000 American workers.[6][7] By the end of 2005, the merged company had more employees worldwide than they had separately before the merger.[8] As of February 9, 2005, HP stock had lost more than half its value, while the overall NASDAQ index had fallen 26 percent owing to turbulence in the tech sector.[9][10][11] On that date, Hewlett-Packard's board of directors forced Fiorina to resign as chief executive officer and chairman."

Before that she was at Lucent. A great example of the peter principle.

 

[Seton75]

The repub ticket will be Trump at the top, and Kasich as his VP.

 

[HALL85]

Merge, I thought the same thing about Trump originally too but despite the Mexican rapist and John McCain dis, his numbers keep climbing and those that said they wouldn't vote for him keep shrinking. I don't expect him to win the nomination but he will stay (and continue to lead) the top 4-5 coming out of the debate.

Bush just does not look comfortable and he is the profile that Trump is attacking. Each candidate has about five minutes of time and I don't think that favors Bush.

 

[HALL85]

Lol...quoting Wilipedia? That's fact? Carly took over the company and had to make tough decisions. There are just as many if not more overviews that paint a very different story.

 

[Merge]

The repub ticket will be Trump at the top, and Kasich as his VP.

Not happening. Just look where the money is.

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016repnomination

 

[Seton75]

Lol...quoting Wilipedia? That's fact? Carly took over the company and had to make tough decisions. There are just as many if not more overviews that paint a very different story.

Carly sucked. I knew it, being in the computer industry as did everyone I ever spoke to about her. I quoted wiki to get some quick facts.

 

[HALL85]

I know someone who was on her Board who is CEO of a Fortune 50 company; he does not share your opinion of her.

 

[SPK145]

I see Kasich and Paul doing well in this debate.

 

[Merge]

Merge, I thought the same thing about Trump originally too but despite the Mexican rapist and John McCain dis, his numbers keep climbing and those that said they wouldn't vote for him keep shrinking. I don't expect him to win the nomination but he will stay (and continue to lead) the top 4-5 coming out of the debate.

He has his base of support. Really isn't going to grow much more than it is now.
Actually just read a comment from Nate Silver today that Trump is similar to Gingrich in 2011 who also had a huge bump and was leading the field for a few weeks. I'd say Trump has about 2 or 3 weeks left in the lead and will start to fade away after that.

 

[Merge]

I see Kasich and Paul doing well in this debate.

This will be an introduction to Kasich for most people, I expect he will do well.
I haven't seen Paul doing that well with the spotlight on yet. I like him but expect he will get overshadowed.

 

[Seton75]

This will be an introduction to Kasich for most people, I expect he will do well.
I haven't seen Paul doing that well with the spotlight on yet. I like him but expect he will get overshadowed.

I would prefer Kasich of all the repub candidates. I thought he was impressive when he was in Congress and I hear he has done a good job in Ohio.

 

[HALL85]

I like Kasich a lot. This is a great opportunity for him and I don't see him having a foot-in-mouth moment.

 

[knowknow456]

I would prefer Kasich of all the repub candidates. I thought he was impressive when he was in Congress and I hear he has done a good job in Ohio.

Kasich is way too moderate to survive the Republican primary. If he could, he would have a good chance in the general election. Depending on who the Republican nominee is, Kasich would make a strong VP candidate. Capturing Ohio is critical to Republican chances for victory.

i will be interested to see how he fares in the debates. I am not one who thinks this format will play to his strengths. In my (admittedly) limited knowledge of him, he comes across a little wishy washy.

 

[shupat08]

I believe Kasich said he either does not oppose the Iran deal or would adhere to the Iran deal... That's a deal breaker in the Republican Primary.

 

[Seton75]

I believe Kasich said he either does not oppose the Iran deal or would adhere to the Iran deal... That's a deal breaker in the Republican Primary.

Same thing a bunch of Israeli generals told Bibi.

 

[SnakeTom]

With 10 "debaters" how much time will anyone get to present their views? i don't really expect much from it.

TK

 

[shupat08]

The guidelines are calling for 10 minutes TOTAL for each candidate. I assume that combines "answers" and "rebuttals"... So 30 second sound bites. No real substance.

 

[HALL85]

The guidelines are calling for 10 minutes TOTAL for each candidate. I assume that combines "answers" and "rebuttals"... So 30 second sound bites. No real substance.

I think it's 90 minutes I believe so best case is 9 minutes each. Add windbag moderators asking lengthy questions, admonishing candidates for going overtime, opening and closing etc, and redirects, you can see that there will be more like 5-6 minutes each total. Very little substance. There will only be about five questions....this is all about getting your points across crisply, quickly and looking Presidential. No Rick Perry moments...you would think this should be an easy format to prepare.

 

[shu09]

Fiorina is a total lightweight. Never puts forth any ideas, just attacks Hillary Clinton non-stop. I'm no Hillary fan by any means, but Fiorina's act is tiresome. Reminds me of Sarah Palin in some ways.

As for the big time candidates, I think Kasich, Christie, Walker and Trump will come out of this debate looking strong. Possibly Rubio as well, but he strikes me as a better candidate a few years down the road in either 2020 or 2024. I am interested to hear what Carson has to say tomorrow night and see if he can make a move.

I remain surprised that Paul Ryan didn't throw his hat in the ring this cycle. He would have done well, but it's way too late to get in now.

 

[cernjSHU]

Interesting that no one brought up Christie. I am looking to see what Christie does in this debate. This is extremely important debate for him. I think he is looking for his chance to dress down Trump with a good one liner and then make himself out to look like the one who actually is not the joker but a serious stand up front player in this race. I actually think he is the only one that can take him on with that brash personality.

Jeb just needs to be steady and not make any mistakes. Who will be able to push their way into the spotlight with Trump and Jeb? Do you really think Walker, Carson or Kasich have that charisma? Kasich to me has VP written all over him. He needs to perform steady. He is from the critical state of Ohio. He has to be a top VP candidate and that is why he is in this race. He knows he has no shot at the nomination. But a good display should get him a VP slot.

 

[Merge]

Interesting that no one brought up Christie.

Personally I just think his chances are extremely low.
He is probably the most well known of the bunch outside of Trump, and hasn't been able to move the polls at all. There just doesn't seem to be the support... although once Trump drops out (and he will) his supporters may be looking for someone with a similar tone and Christie is definitely closest.

 

[HALL85]

Whose poll numbers rise and fall?

My guess:

Most Up: Rubio and Christie
Some Up: Bush, Carson and Walker
Marginal Up/Down:Huckabee, Kasich,
Paul, Cruz
Most Down: Trump

Christie was on point...very prepared and compelling

 

[shu09]

I think Kasich, Rubio, Walker and Trump did well tonight. I think their numbers will see a slight bump (maybe not in Trump's case since he's so high up to begin with).

Thought Huckabee and Paul had awful nights. Bush didn't do great either, but I doubt his numbers will change much either way.

 

[HALL85]

I think Kasich, Rubio, Walker and Trump did well tonight. I think their numbers will see a slight bump (maybe not in Trump's case since he's so high up to begin with).

Thought Huckabee and Paul had awful nights. Bush didn't do great either, but I doubt his numbers will change much either way.

No offense but I thought Trump was dreadful.

 

[shu09]

No offense but I thought Trump was dreadful.

I thought he conducted himself fairly well and certainly didn't look like the bumbling fool the media and the sound bytes would lead you to believe. I think he helped himself tonight at best and stayed in the same position at worst. We'll see what the general feedback is over the next few days.

 

[cernjSHU]

Fox went after Trump with multiple tough questions. Some he handled well, some not so well. But I don't think he was awful. Overall, I don't think anyone was outstanding. I thought Rubio did the best. I also thought Christie came out looking fairly well. Jeb seemed a bit unsure but didn't do anything to harm himself which is exactly what he wanted.

Carson didn't have much to say but did end well. Huckabee didn't do well until that last tlne of the debate. Cruz looked like a maniac and Rand Paul looked overmatched. Kasich doing his thing so he can be named as VP. He is not looking to win, he is looking for the number 2 spot.

Way too much bible thumping from the Republican candidates.

 

[Merge]

It was a very entertaining debate overall. It will be very interesting to see what kind of movement there will be in the polls.

Best performances for me were Kasich and Rubio. I think both will see a nice bump in the polls.

Bush is basically Romney 2012. No one is really excited about him, and he will stay boring enough to maintain in the top 3 for the entire primary and watch everyone else around him mess up enough to fall out of favor. He just needs to not mess up too badly and he accomplished that.

Exit stage left Rand Paul, Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee. All performed poorly and Paul trying to drop a few soundbites got absolutely crushed by Trump "You're having a hard time tonight". Carson's prepared close was very good but was just bad every other instance he had a chance to talk.

Walker and Cruz may get some traction from trump supporters when he drops out. I can see Walker taking a lead for a week or two but will fade eventually. Cruz is just absolutely crazy.

Christie performed well overall but again comes of as a bully and I am not sure evoking 9/11 will play well. His answer about the Obama hug was prepared well in advance and fairly distasteful honestly... Paul also should have gone after him harder for the mass surveillance.

I am not convinced more than ever that Trump is trolling us all and is basically a caricature of all of the crazy talking points that have appeared on Fox News. Everyone knows that the GOP cannot win the election in Trump is running and Fox has no idea how to handle it. They are now blatantly trying to discredit Trump and the people in the polling room afterwards were plants to push that agenda.

The true winner was probably Carly Fiorina. By not being in the debate she got to shine against a group that no one cares about and didn't have to worry about being overshadowed by anyone on the main stage.

 

[SPK145]

I learned very little, mostly a waste of time.

Rubio was pretty impressive.

Trump strikes a nerve but is an asshole.

Christie is an asshole.

Merge hit it on the head with Kasich when he sucked up to Trump, was clear to see what he was doing.

Don't like Huckabee as a candidate but he had the line of the night for me with his "Obama: Trust but villify" line.

I still like Rand Paul on ideology grounds and Kasich on leadership grounds.

 

[Merge]

and Kasich on leadership grounds.

I would probably vote for Kasich over Hillary. He does seem like a good pick but probably too centrist for the primary?

My gut still says it will be one of
Bush / Kasich (Two incredibly important swing state representations)
Bush / Rubio (Will help slightly with Hispanic voters)
Bush / Fiorina (Will help slightly with women voters softening the Hillary historic moment voters)

 

[HALL85]

I would probably vote for Kasich over Hillary. He does seem like a good pick but probably too centrist for the primary?

My gut still says it will be one of
Bush / Kasich (Two incredibly important swing state representations)
Bush / Rubio (Will help slightly with Hispanic voters)
Bush / Fiorina (Will help slightly with women voters softening the Hillary historic moment voters)

The sad thing about Bush is that he has been a very effective governor and accomplished a lot. He lacks the presence on stage that others have, and you know he'll be pigeon-holed as Romney-esque and the press will try at every corner to get a sound byte that makes him sound out of touch with the poor.

I still wonder what Trump's exit strategy is...If he tries to go the third party direction, his support will drop like a rock.

 

[SnakeTom]

Rubio can't run as VP candidate on a Bush ticket. Unless the rules changed the President & VP can't be from the same state.

Tom K

 

[Merge]

Rubio can't run as VP candidate on a Bush ticket. Unless the rules changed the President & VP can't be from the same state.

Tom K

Not exactly. Their electors in Florida would not be able to vote for one of them so if they ended up with less than 299 electoral votes it could be a problem but even then there may be ways to work around it.

 

[HALL85]

I would probably vote for Kasich over Hillary. He does seem like a good pick but probably too centrist for the primary?

My gut still says it will be one of
Bush / Kasich (Two incredibly important swing state representations)
Bush / Rubio (Will help slightly with Hispanic voters)
Bush / Fiorina (Will help slightly with women voters softening the Hillary historic moment voters)

It's way too early, but my guess is that a Rubio/Fiorina or Kasich/Fiorina ticket would be Hillary's worst nightmare.

 

[Seton75]

Funny how the deck was stacked against trump, getting way harder questions. FOX is such a sham and bad influence on America. I really don't think it matters what he says. Surprised so many thought he won the debate.

Is the consensus here still that DT is in this for ego/promotion purposes and not in it for the long run?

85's girl had a good day they say, maybe the best of all the candidates, but not as good as the day HP stockholders had the day after she got canned...lol.

I can't believe I watched the whole debate. I felt sorry for SPK when Christie did the verbal equivalent of kneeling on Paul's chest (sorta like Rudy attacking his Dad 8 years ago). I guess the reason I watched though was cause both the Mets and Dodgers were not playing last night.

I didn't see a guy who I thought could win the presidency, but I do like Kasich.

 

[Merge]

Is the consensus here still that DT is in this for ego/promotion purposes and not in it for the long run?

I am not 100% certain of his motive but a shrewd businessman would not walk into this primary without understanding the electorate and the path to win the election.

I have spent a decent amount of time researching what it will take to win the next election and where each party will need to get their votes to win. Is it reasonable that I would have spent more time that Trump and his team? You can not win a general election without the support of Hispanics and women. It is just not possible and there is not a chance in hell that Trump doesn't understand that.

If he drops out than I will have to assume it was for the publicity. If he stays in or God forbid runs as a 3rd party candidate, I might start to think he is actually trying to have Hillary win.

 

[Seton75]

I am not 100% certain of his motive but a shrewd businessman would not walk into this primary without understanding the electorate and the path to win the election.

I have spent a decent amount of time researching what it will take to win the next election and where each party will need to get their votes to win. Is it reasonable that I would have spent more time that Trump and his team? You can not win a general election without the support of Hispanics and women. It is just not possible and there is not a chance in hell that Trump doesn't understand that.

If he drops out than I will have to assume it was for the publicity. If he stays in or God forbid runs as a 3rd party candidate, I might start to think he is actually trying to have Hillary win.

I think old research and trends and polling data is far more irrelevant than it ever has been. If a guy gave the performance he gave last night 4/8/20 years ago, his polling would be cut in half and he would be on his way out. Now, I wonder if it budges.

Sadly, the vast majority of Americans' votes will not count at all, as so many states are already red or blue. Hillary isn't changing that. Neither is Jeb or the next repub in line. But an out of the box guy (out of his mind...lol) might shake things up.

 

[SnakeTom]

I guess the reason I watched though was cause both the Mets and Dodgers were not playing last night.

I didn't see a guy who I thought could win the presidency, but I do like Kasich.

I also was most impressed with Kasich. He did a good job presenting his image as a problem solver. I especially liked his answer to the gay marriage question. "I opposed gay marriage but now that the Supreme Court has decided the issue I will abide by it. We must treat all our citizens fairly".

And like Seton75 I must say that I only watched this debate because the METS were not playing last night.

Tom K