Republican Debates

[knowknow456]

I think that supports my point.

I do agree with you. Ronald Reagan was not divisive. Neither is Barack Obama. Ronald Reagan couldn't reach 40% of the population. You are part of the 40% of the population that Barack Obama can't reach. The 40% often find the majority as divisive. I prefer to find myself in the swing vote group where opinions can be different but not automatically divisive. You prefer a different worldview.

 

[Merge]

I agree that Obama could have handled it better. Clearly he took it personally and was pissed off. I am just not convinced if rising above it would have accomplished anything. I think any attempt to work with them would have been rebuffed like the debt ceiling talks where Boehner was forced to walk away because of the Norquist pledges. How can the president work with a group unwilling to move?

 

[HALL85]

I agree that Obama could have handled it better. Clearly he took it personally and was pissed off. I am just not convinced if rising above it would have accomplished anything. I think any attempt to work with them would have been rebuffed like the debt ceiling talks where Boehner was forced to walk away because of the Norquist pledges. How can the president work with a group unwilling to move?

We'll never know...but failure is guaranteed if you don't try.

 

[HALL85]

I do agree with you. Ronald Reagan was not divisive. Neither is Barack Obama. Ronald Reagan couldn't reach 40% of the population. You are part of the 40% of the population that Barack Obama can't reach. The 40% often find the majority as divisive. I prefer to find myself in the swing vote group where opinions can be different but not automatically divisive. You prefer a different worldview.

OMG...Obama is the most divisive President that we've had in my lifetime. Barack DOESN'T want to reach me....arrogant and divisive people don't care about those that don't share their opinion. Different is good..you always need to challenge the status quo and do better; divisive is not; demonizing those that don't agree is not. You have your opinion; I have mine. I don't vote party lines....my guess is you do. I prefer leaders that unite; which is why I didn't vote for Christie the first time around. Thought he had that blind spot.

 

[knowknow456]

Obama is the most divisive President that we've had in my lifetime.

I understand that is your mantra but repeating it over and over doesn't necessarily make it true. The good news is your argument remains sound - the 40% who didn't vote for Reagan in 1984 felt he didn't want to reach him either but the 60% who did vote for him sure felt he united them.

I am sure you are tiring of this back and forth; I know I am. So I will leave you with two things - There is big news afoot...Trump will not run as an Independent! And I do not vote by party line.

 

[HALL85]

I understand that is your mantra but repeating it over and over doesn't necessarily make it true. The good news is your argument remains sound - the 40% who didn't vote for Reagan in 1984 felt he didn't want to reach him either but the 60% who did vote for him sure felt he united them.

I am sure you are tiring of this back and forth; I know I am. So I will leave you with two things - There is big news afoot...Trump will not run as an Independent! And I do not vote by party line.

As with Merge, I agree that this is something we'll have to agree to disagree. I look more at the leaders actions vs. the voter breakdown. I'm sure there is a percentage of the base that could care less if the President unites us or not. That's important to me. I've had the good fortune to work for and with some great leaders who got results by uniting an organization, clearly articulating the vision and leading by example.

I still don't think Trump will be around at the end as the Republican candidate. Nor do I think Hillary will, especially now it looks like someone is claiming to have hacked her and has the 32,000 emails she erased. Without The Donald or Shrillary, hopefully we get two candidates to choose that can bring us back together.

 

[shu09]

One thing I will say Obama has been divisive and demonizing on is the issue of global warming. I think he has done a decent job overall (I'd give him a B), but he gets bad marks from me on that issue. No need to bash and make fun of people who have legitimate disagreements.

 

[Merge]

No need to bash and make fun of people who have legitimate disagreements.

Of course but a lot of it has not been legitimate... If any politicians ever says "well, I'm not a scientist"... they should be disqualified from talking about anything that they don't have experience in. There is a pretty strong consensus among scientist that humans are causing climate change. I will agree that Obama shouldn't be so quick to make fun of them but it is pretty frustrating that they just ignore science. Many of the major republican players have all come out saying "I'm not a scientist" or "I'll leave the debate to the scientists"... There was definitely a memo put out by the party instructing them to answer in that way. I'm kinda glad they were called out on their BS,but yeah... probably shouldn't be Obama that is calling them out.

I was also just watching an interview with Ted Cruz who was making fun of liberals for changing the name from "global warming" to "climate change" because the rate of temperature change has slowed... even though this is exactly what Al Gore was talking about 15 years ago, we would heat up, arctic ice will melt, sea levels will start to rise, currents and jet streams will change, storms will increase in power and parts of the world will start to cool.

 

[shu09]

Unrelated but kind of ironic.

 

[Merge]

Hahaha, touché.

 

[Seton75]

One thing I will say Obama has been divisive and demonizing on is the issue of global warming. I think he has done a decent job overall (I'd give him a B), but he gets bad marks from me on that issue. No need to bash and make fun of people who have legitimate disagreements.

IMO, calling it "global warming" and insisting man contributes makes the topic easier to attack. Back when I was a kid, we called it pollution. And no one wants pollution. Nixon started the EPA I think. The pushback on global warming seems to really just be a reason to protect American businesses from having to do the right thing cause it costs money. Maybe man is speeding up the melting of the icebergs or maybe he isn't, but nobody wants pollution. But if China and the rest of the world is going to pollute at the rate they are doing...

 

[SnakeTom]

Divisive = Pick a side and demonize the other...he does this all the time.

Isn't that exactly what Donald Trump is doing?

Tom K

 

[HALL85]

Isn't that exactly what Donald Trump is doing?

Tom K

I'm not sure what Trump is doing. Yes, divisive and then he turns around and says everyone is his friend. Another guy I wouldn't want to get the nomination.

 

[Seton75]

Divisive = Pick a side and demonize the other...he does this all the time.

We demo and libs have to admit, other than denying he was American, calling him a Muslim and saying he hated America and wanted to destroy it, Obama has been treated with respect.

I bet if some republic tried to cooperate with him a la Oneil/reagan, his next opponent would make that cooperation the centerpiece of their campaign. The partisan media - Fox rush etc has poisoned political dialogue. Breaking this up could be trumps best accomplishment cause he is crazy and arrogant enough to tell them to stick it.

 

[knowknow456]

Tonight is Round 2 of the Republican debates. I won't watch it live (good grief, it's scheduled for three hours) but will record it just in case something good happens. By something good, I am looking for three things:

1. Seeing how Carson does now that the spotlight has more or less turned to him. Unlike Trump, for whom the regular rules don't seem to apply, Carson will be punished at the polls if he makes a major gaffe

2. Seeing if Walker, Bush or Rubio find a way to at least separate from each other if not actually gain ground. One of these three will most likely be the Establishment favorite so now is as good a time as any to make their case.

3. Seeing Rand Paul slug Donald Trump. Admittedly, that is a long shot but everyone has dreams. That one is mine.

 

[Seton75]

I watched the last one and was saying NFW can Trump survive this. The next day his #s are up.

I think we have a better chance of seeing Paul cry. And I think Walker and Rubio have no chance. I do think Kasich has to make some hay, and 85's girl Carly will be trying to play as well with the varsity as she played last month in the freshman game. Will be wondering what Bush's strategy is going to be. And can Carson keep up his momentum?

I wonder if there are odds in Vegas on which questioner Trump will pick a fight with.

It is gonna be fabulous, a real five star event!

 

[Merge]

I wonder if there are odds in Vegas on which questioner Trump will pick a fight with.

My guess is that if he goes after anyone (which he may not) it will be Carley, she is the only other businessperson running and her record will be easy to contrast for him.

Jeb needs to make a move tonight. His PAC just started up a $24 million campaign yesterday, so tonight is extremely important that he starts to gain some momentum. I expect to see more energy and passion from him. If he fails tonight he has very little room for error going forward.

Carson will be interesting to watch. He is very impressive when giving a prepared speech but kind of horrible otherwise. This being a foreign policy focused debate, I expect CNN to go after him pretty hard.

I was surprised that Kasich and Rubio really didn't get a bump after the last debate, I think Carly got all of the gains. I think Kasich may be too moderate for the primary and Rubio being the other "establishment" candidate will only have a shot of Jeb starts to drop.

Carly will probably do incredibly well. She just seems much more polished than anyone else that will be on stage.

Cruz, Paul, Walker and Christie will all be looking for their one liner of the night so they can get some press tomorrow but I don't think any of them have the ability to turn enough voters to win a primary... and Huckabee I might have to mute when he talks. I liked him (as a person, not his policies) in 2012 but he he crossed the crazy line for 2016.

 

[HALL85]

I'm really surprised that no one has gone after Trump, Fiorina and Carson with regards to experience and results. Can someone just walk off the street and be a pediatric neurosurgeon? Can somebody just come off the street and be a CEO of a fortune 100 company? Of course not. I don't know why Jeb or Kasich play that card, although Carson could shoot back if he had a 15% approval rating as a neurosurgeon he shouldn't deserve to be one.

1-Can Carson build on the momentum from the first debate? I have been talking to people in healthcare recently that have gotten to know him over the years and they think he's the real deal.
2-This is Fiorina's big break...incredibly poised and makes her points concisely. Can she relate? She doesn't need to overtake Trump, just get into and stay in the top three or four.
3-I would like to see Kasich or Rubio breakthrough.
4-I disagree that Jeb has to do something. He has money and time on his side. It's still early, and a good chance those ahead of the him might flameout. Unless he drops to the 1% category, he's going to be around for a long time.
5-They should all thank Trump for bringing so many sets of eyeballs to the TV.

 

[Seton75]

I'm really surprised that no one has gone after Trump, Fiorina and Carson with regards to experience and results.

No one can play that card cause no experience is exactly what people want cause the guys with experience have sucked forever.

1-Can Carson build on the momentum from the first debate? I have been talking to people in healthcare recently that have gotten to know him over the years and they think he's the real deal.

His ideas on many subjects make Trump look like a policy wonk so I am told. But people love him, no doubt and he is obviously brilliant.

2-This is Fiorina's big break...incredibly poised and makes her points concisely. Can she relate? She doesn't need to overtake Trump, just get into and stay in the top three or four.

I agree

3-I would like to see Kasich or Rubio breakthrough.

Cant see Rubio doing anything. Always have liked Kasich back to when he was in the House


4-I disagree that Jeb has to do something. He has money and time on his side. It's still early, and a good chance those ahead of the him might flameout. Unless he drops to the 1% category, he's going to be around for a long time.

Jeb can hang around but he seems tone deaf to me. The Bush/Reagan shirt was a huge advertisement why we don't want him, cause we have had enough Bushes. His dear in the headlights looks make Willard look like Daniel Boone.

5-They should all thank Trump for bringing so many sets of eyeballs to the TV

Yes, and I hear Trump is considering naming Mike Nzei as his running mate.

 

[HALL85]

I'll ride Carly as long as you ride Nzei....lol

Jeb is just so underwhelming to me. Seems like a smart and accomplished guy that can't get people to notice him...

I do like Kasich...a concensus builder who has gotten things done...moderate on social issues.

 

[shu09]

Watching the debate....Trump is hurting himself big time tonight. When you're ahead, you don't attack. But he can't help himself. Will be interesting to see if the numbers reflect this.

Rubio and Kasich have been strong so far tonight. Bush and Walker are more engaging and better prepared than they were in the first debate.

 

[HALL85]

Watching the debate....Trump is hurting himself big time tonight. When you're ahead, you don't attack. But he can't help himself. Will be interesting to see if the numbers reflect this.

Rubio and Kasich have been strong so far tonight. Bush and Walker are more engaging and better prepared than they were in the first debate.

I thought that about Trump in the first debate and his numbers went up...I don't get it.

Kasich is doing well, but maybe I'm bias because I like him. Actually, I think Christie has also shown well, but I doubt he will get any bump. So far Fiorina continues to show a very strong handle on the issues and very passionate....wouldn't be surprised to see her numbers improve significantly.

Serious question....if it was Fiorina vs. Clinton today, who would you vote for?

 

[shu09]

I thought that about Trump in the first debate and his numbers went up...I don't get it.

Kasich is doing well, but maybe I'm bias because I like him. Actually, I think Christie has also shown well, but I doubt he will get any bump. So far Fiorina continues to show a very strong handle on the issues and very passionate....wouldn't be surprised to see her numbers improve significantly.

Serious question....if it was Fiorina vs. Clinton today, who would you vote for?

Trump is much more aggressive tonight. He performed fairly well in the first debate. One of the big losers tonight IMO.

If it's Fiorina vs. Clinton I would not vote (or vote third party as a protest). That would be a dreadful matchup for this country. Fiorina is well prepared but all she has is talking points. She's been coached up on what to say, can easily see through it.

 

[Seton75]

Trump is much more aggressive tonight. He performed fairly well in the first debate. One of the big losers tonight IMO.

If it's Fiorina vs. Clinton I would not vote (or vote third party as a protest). That would be a dreadful matchup for this country. Fiorina is well prepared but all she has is talking points. She's been coached up on what to say, can easily see through it.

I thought trump sucked in the first debate.

 

[HALL85]

I thought trump sucked in the first debate.

I thought he sucked too in the first debate.

Nzei/Fiorina in 2016

 

[shu09]

Well now that the marathon is over...

I thought Rubio was the big winner tonight. I had said before that I was waiting for him to break out. I think he just did, he's a guy I can get behind going forward.

Christie and Kasich performed pretty well, I'd put them in the second tier.

Status quo for Walker, Fiorina and Cruz. They did nothing to help or hurt themselves. I guess I'll put Bush in this category as well. There still seems like there's something missing with him. Not his best or worst performance tonight.

Trump and Carson were the clear losers tonight, I don't think there's any question about it. Trump's attack strategy backfired on him and he showed little to no substance on most issues. Carson missed an opportunity to show a deeper understanding of the issues. Doesn't come off as a strong leader either.

Paul and Huckabee are irrelevant

 

[Seton75]

Carly is the only winner imo. Carson takes steps back and she may grab some of his support. The Republican party should hope half of the candidates scram and allow the ones with a chance more room. Trump was like last time sround, not good but big.

 

[HALL85]

IMO, Carly gained the most ground. Rubio showed his strengths on policy knowledge. Kasich showed more of who he is and separated himself from others on some issues and style. Christie showed his strength in this kind of setting. Carson was flat, but not sure he hurt himself. Agree 75; at this point I'm hoping right after the SC primary, that we see a top 4-5 emerge and others drop out.

Trump IMO has done three important things:
1-By responding to public interest in the "outsider" candidate he has provided immediate credibility to Carly and Ben.
2-He is delivering the audience. No one knew Kasich two months ago. Now the country does...really helping him.
3-He has raised the issues that everyone else has been able to pile on.

 

[Merge]

My wife just made me turn it off in the middle, haha, so I only caught the first half and then some of the wrap up shows afterwards.
From what I saw Carly and Rubio were by far the most polished. Carly did her homework and was ready and had a little more style to her substance than Rubio so I would give her the edge overall.

I think Kasich was third but I am a little biased since I liked his answers the best.

Christie really made a pivot to the right and was in democrat attack mode. Some of his comments fell a little flat but seemed to perform better than expectations.

Jeb did finally show some energy at points but I agree with 09. Just something missing with him.
He lacks charisma and is a little more awkward than his brother was, although appears to have more political knowledge. There was one moment early on that I thought looked really bad for Jeb when Trump and Jeb were trying to talk over each other and Jeb went silent to let Trump finish. Just made Jeb look weak.

Trump was Trump but seemed to get a little tired towards the end. I expect to see a decline in his numbers in the next couple of weeks but should still hold a lead since he didn't really do anything that would kill him.

Carson should have the biggest losses since he was the flavor of the week candidate and I expect his supporters to start to move towards Carly.

Paul, Cruz, Walker, and Huckabee didn't really do anything to help or hurt. Hopefully all 4 drop out soon but I doubt they will.

 

[Seton75]

My wife just made me turn it off in the middle, haha, so I only caught the first half and then some of the wrap up shows afterwards.
From what I saw Carly and Rubio were by far the most polished. Carly did her homework and was ready and had a little more style to her substance than Rubio so I would give her the edge overall.

I think Kasich was third but I am a little biased since I liked his answers the best.

Christie really made a pivot to the right and was in democrat attack mode. Some of his comments fell a little flat but seemed to perform better than expectations.

Jeb did finally show some energy at points but I agree with 09. Just something missing with him.
He lacks charisma and is a little more awkward than his brother was, although appears to have more political knowledge. There was one moment early on that I thought looked really bad for Jeb when Trump and Jeb were trying to talk over each other and Jeb went silent to let Trump finish. Just made Jeb look weak.

Trump was Trump but seemed to get a little tired towards the end. I expect to see a decline in his numbers in the next couple of weeks but should still hold a lead since he didn't really do anything that would kill him.

Carson should have the biggest losses since he was the flavor of the week candidate and I expect his supporters to start to move towards Carly.

Paul, Cruz, Walker, and Huckabee didn't really do anything to help or hurt. Hopefully all 4 drop out soon but I doubt they will.

The rules of the debates need to change. You just can't have 11 guys in a debate. Maybe the first time allow them all. Then agree on a few polls and say they need X% to make the second, and X% to make the third. I would think the party would want to do this to give the leaders more traction and to se where the supporters of the others are bound.

Hillary's bit on Fallon was really terrific. She should have his writers join her staff.

 

[Section112]

Cruz looks and sounds like a cartoon character to me.

Kasich did well and I really like him and he has one of the best records of all the candidates in working across the aisle as a Senator, in governing a state with problems and solving some of those problems. The guy has done well but I just don't think he will get the nomination unfortunately because the electorate likes flash and good speeches etc. He is a principaled moderate and that is what I prefer. He'd be my first choice among the candidates and I believe he is also electable if people give him a chance and get to know him.

Carly did very well and I thought she was the winner last night. Very articulate. Has a lot fire and listens really well and is very succinct and smart in her answers. The HP debacle will weigh heavily on her but she may be able to overcome it.

Rubio and Kasich probably came in 2nd IMO. Both did well. Rubio is easy to listen to and is becoming a very good speaker and seems to have the charisma needed to possibly get the Latin vote and may sway some independents too.

Carson and Paul are really smart guys and have different ideas and views that folks should listen to some more, but they lack charisma and fire on stage and that hurts them. Bush stepped up last night but he is awkward. He is clearly the better of the Bush brothers and did a good job in Florida overall but he will not get the nomination as the country and me are tired of the Bush's and Clintons.

Christie did well and is comfortable in this setting. I liked his comment about who cares and lets talk about the real issues. His record unfortunately in NJ has not been positive in delivering the goods and he should drop out soon IMO.

Walker and Huckabee have no shot. Walker would be a good Senator.

Trump seemed to be more in a like me mode vs attack mode after the first fifteen minutes. He agreed a number of times with very good points made by the others and seemed to be enjoying the banter. He neither hurt nor helped himself and even admitted he needs to learn more about foreign policy and said he is at a disadvantage as he is not privy to the briefings the Senators get (which in my opinion does not hurt him). I hope the polls change because he is not the guy but he is getting people to discuss a lot of problems that the current administration has done nothing about like immigration.

I was skeptical of CNN but overall I think they moderated a good debate. It was long but I watched just about the whole thing (missed the first fifteen minutes live but went back and watched it) and thought they did a good job. A few of their questions were stupid and they were clearly trying to start some brawls but the candidates usually then got back on track regarding the issues and I think that slowed the moderators from asking more of those questions. I give them a B. Could have got an A if they took out a few of those questions where they were trying to start a fight.

 

[knowknow456]

1. I wanted to see how Carson would do. He did ok, but not as well as Carly who has been more or less deemed the debate winner. It is reasonable to assume her poll numbers will rise. The only question is how many Carson and/or Trump supporters will switch over to her.

2. I wanted to see if Walker, Rubio or Bush could separate from each other. As far as I can tell, Walker was the least effective. I don't see how he can survive over the long haul. Kasich and Christie handled themselves ok but are a long, long ways from getting love from the Establishment. So I will be interested to see if either Rubio or Bush get any increase in poll support.

3. I wanted to see Trump punch Rand Paul. As expected, it didn't come to pass. However, I saw nothing from Trump that would erode his support too dramatically. As Seton75 first pointed out, Trump is in it to win it. As Hall85 first pointed out, Trump has tapped a deep wellspring of anti-establishment anger that is not going away. Trumps poll numbers will not ebb away any time soon. In fact, I fully expect to see him last all the way thru until the convention, which in my opinion, will be brokered.

 

[shu09]

Good post by Section112, though I disagree on Fiorina. All she did last night was show she can memorize her lines and deliver them. She was so obviously coached up and so fake it was actually sad in a way.

Your description of Cruz as a cartoon character got me laughing. Couldn't agree more. His role is to throw red meat to the base regardless of the facts. A true puppet.

 

[Seton75]

Good post by Section112, though I disagree on Fiorina. All she did last night was show she can memorize her lines and deliver them. She was so obviously coached up and so fake it was actually sad in a way.

Your description of Cruz as a cartoon character got me laughing. Couldn't agree more. His role is to throw red meat to the base regardless of the facts. A true puppet.

I thought Carly did well and told my wife. She saw exactly what you guys saw. Funny an out cruz. They say he is brilliant but he seems able to hide it pretty easily.

 

[HALL85]

Good post by Section112, though I disagree on Fiorina. All she did last night was show she can memorize her lines and deliver them. She was so obviously coached up and so fake it was actually sad in a way.

you can say that about any politician so that comes across as somewhat disingenuous. Jeez, take the TelePrompTer away from Barry and he's a stuttering fool. Small sample but my wife and middle daughter who are both somewhat politically apathetic (and disgusted) found her to be charismatic and sincere. She has moved to the top of their list.

 

[Merge]

Not really buying sincerity with Carly but that doesn't really matter in politics. She was charismatic, poised and more polished than anyone else up there. In the end I don't think she can overcome her business record at HP. It's just too easy to attack, but she is making a strong push for VP which would help the ticket.

 

[knowknow456]

I know I was pushing for some fisticuffs between Rand Paul and Donald Trump but I am more than satisfied with the alleged fight between Paul and Rubio's campaign staffers. Seriously, what are the chances?

http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/index.ssf/2015/09/john_yob_aide_to_rand_paul_cla.html

 

[knowknow456]

The first post-debate popularity poll apparently claimed another victim - Scott Walker and his 1% support is dropping out of the race. To recap:

1. As expected, Carly Fiorino surged to 15% (from 3%), Carson dropped to 14% (from 19%) and Trump dropped to 24% (from 32%). The bottom line is the three anti-establishment candidates are shuffling the deck. Overall, 49% voted for the big three in early September and now 53% are voting for the big three. It remains to be seen if this is the ceiling for anti-establishment types. I suspect it might. My prediction is Carly can still go higher, Trump will not drop below 15% and eventually Carson will be the odd man out.

2. Rubio is now at 11%, ahead of Bush at 9%. There is lots of room for growth for both candidates.

3 Kasich and Christie, despite having strong debates, barely moved the needle. Both are too moderate to appeal to Conservative Republicans so I expect their numbers will remain low, especially if Rubio can hold on to his 11%.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/20/politics/carly-fiorina-donald-trump-republican-2016-poll/index.html