Trump's America

[NYShoreGuy]

 

[shu09]

Just my opinion, but I think opinions about the economy are more about feel than specific stats.

- When you fill your tank, is there a noticeable difference?
- What’s the week to week grocery bill compared to recent weeks?

I saw an article that Costco grocery sales are up significantly and the conclusion they came to was that people are eating out less. I’ve noticed this at restaurants in the region. They just don’t seem as crowded. Are people shopping at discount/volume stores more because they are eating out less? We can afford it but spending $150-200 for two of us for a nice meal with cocktails & tip is noticeable.

Although inflation toward the end of Biden’s term was low, there were two things that they missed. One, you can’t tout your own version of statistics to convince the public that they were wrong to feel that way. Second, Biden didn’t do much especially the last two years so prices got more attention and another example of people complaining about his inaction.

Restaurants were one of the biggest offenders in taking advantage of inflation over the last few years. They have tacked on a considerable amount more than their costs have risen by, and that doesn't even include the credit card fees almost all of them are passing along now. "Checkout adjustments," lol. Some Italian places are charging upwards of $20 for basic pasta dishes. It's absurd. Not going to feel bad for most of them when the crowds stop coming.

Over the mid term, a deflationary bust should be the bigger concern. It won't happen until the unemployment rate rises, but I think that's coming. Much greater risk to the economy from the downside (deflation) over the next 12-18 months than the upside (inflation).

 

[HALL85]

Restaurants were one of the biggest offenders in taking advantage of inflation over the last few years. They have tacked on a considerable amount more than their costs have risen by, and that doesn't even include the credit card fees almost all of them are passing along now. "Checkout adjustments," lol. Some Italian places are charging upwards of $20 for basic pasta dishes. It's absurd. Not going to feel bad for most of them when the crowds stop coming.

Respectfully disagree. Restaurant business is brutal and I think wage increases have had the greatest impact. Some restaurants flourished during COVID (pizza shops or strong take out models). Others never recovered. Many are family run businesses which is the backbone of the economy. Restaurant customers are going to shop with their feet. Restaurants that gouge or are overpriced are not sustainable. Customers either won’t go or choose to eat at a different place.

Over the mid term, a deflationary bust should be the bigger concern. It won't happen until the unemployment rate rises, but I think that's coming. Much greater risk to the economy from the downside (deflation) over the next 12-18 months than the upside

Who knows where it’s going, but the fundamentals of the economy remain generally strong.

 

[shu09]

Respectfully disagree. Restaurant business is brutal and I think wage increases have had the greatest impact. Some restaurants flourished during COVID (pizza shops or strong take out models). Others never recovered. Many are family run businesses which is the backbone of the economy. Restaurant customers are going to shop with their feet. Restaurants that gouge or are overpriced are not sustainable. Customers either won’t go or choose to eat at a different place.

Who knows where it’s going, but the fundamentals of the economy remain generally strong.

Problem is, all of them are gouging now. Consumers have nowhere to turn if they want to go out to eat.

I disagree, the fundamentals have been weakening over the last 12 months. I think a recession is more likely than not within the next 12 months.

 

[HALL85]

Problem is, all of them are gouging now. Consumers have nowhere to turn if they want to go out to eat.

I don’t get that. There’s hundreds of choices for a consumer. Or they could choose to eat at home. No one is putting a gun to their head to walk into a specific restaurant that overcharges.

I disagree, the fundamentals have been weakening over the last 12 months. I think a recession is more likely than not within the next 12 months.

We’ll just have to see.