Dr. Fauci gives grim projection

[SPK145]

Take the number of new hospitalizations per day over the last 7 days. Drag that formula down. Which way is it trending?

That's there, see column G. Trending up slightly but still below before re-opening. Last 5 days hurt but trends need to be looked at over longer terms, especially since the main crux with Florida was re-opening.

We can assume that the rate of hospitalizations will be relatively consistent based on the number of infections... but we don't really know the number of infections. We can only really track actual hospital activity and we can extrapolate the number of cases from there. Looking at New York, based on these sites, we can assume a hospitalization rate of about 2.8%

Why would you use NY or NJ to extrapolate around the country when we know those governors put infected people into homes of the most vulnerable, that makes no sense?

In Florida, they are probably closer to 500k cases than 100k.

Now you are just making stuff up.

Same thing with the rate of positive cases. Gotta look at new tests per day and what percentage was positive.
They are currently around 10% when they were around 3-5% the last 2 months.

Yup, could be a trend, could be a blip. But how come now and not after re-opening? Anything happen recently?

 

[Merge]

That's there, see column G. Trending up slightly but still below before re-opening. Last 5 days hurt but trends need to be looked at over longer terms, especially since the main crux with Florida was re-opening.

Of course... As I have said all along, need time to understand what is happening... but reopening doesn't go from 1 guy infecting 100,000. It takes time to get from 1 to 2 to 3 to 4 etc..

Why would you use NY or NJ to extrapolate around the country when we know those governors put infected people into homes of the most vulnerable, that makes no sense?

Use any state you want using those sites.
Hospitalization rate seems to be around 2 to 3 percent of how many cases we expect there have been.

Now you are just making stuff up.

https://covid19-projections.com/us-fl

^ that site projects 590k cases as of today in FL. A hospitalization rate of 2.25% (ignoring the slight lag between infection date and hospitalization date)

Yup, could be a trend, could be a blip. But how come now and not after re-opening? Anything happen recently?

Because there are a lot of variables including who is getting infected, when they are getting infected, how many people are going out, are they gathering in larger crowds, are people wearing masks less than they were etc etc... All stuff we really don't know.

 

[shufan1993]

Hi @SPK145. Health experts are concerned about Florida becoming the next epicenter of the Coronavirus. John Hopkins has just released that Florida has had its highest 7 day average of Coronavirus cases since the pandemic began. Thoughts?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/18/us/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

 

[SPK145]

Hi @SPK145. Health experts are concerned about Florida becoming the next epicenter of the Coronavirus. John Hopkins has just released that Florida has had its highest 7 day average of Coronavirus cases since the pandemic began. Thoughts?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/18/us/us-coronavirus-thurslower than mnths ago. day/index.html

That's true but the 7-day positive rate has always been higher except for the last 5-7 days. 7-day hospitalizations are low and lower than they've been in the past.7-day deaths are as low as they've ever been. So what's the big deal? Getting the virus is not a death sentence.

 

[shufan1993]

That's true but the 7-day positive rate has always been higher except for the last 5-7 days. 7-day hospitalizations are low and lower than they've been in the past.7-day deaths are as low as they've ever been. So what's the big deal? Getting the virus is not a death sentence.

Again a very blind sided look. "Getting the virus is not a death sentence" shake my head. Tell that to the families that lost a loved one during this pandemic. People are still potentially spreading the virus to vulnerable people. That is not good! What don't you understand about that???

 

[shufan1993]

@HALL85 the voice of reason of the pandemic Michael Osterholm has said the Coronavirus "will rage like a forest fire" with no exit. Please note I was making these predictions back in March and people were calling me a "moron" and "fear monoger". Unfortunately I am right again. This virus has no end in sight and will continue to linger in this country for the next 2 to 3 years. Social distancing and wearing masks for the the next 2 to 3 hear and state economies will continue to open and close. A lot of people of people on this board should admit I've been right!

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/michael-osterholm-covid-19-forest-fire_n_5ef02d05c5b60f58759876e7

 

[shufan1993]

Well as the great Tony Fauci, MD said today, if the country cannot contain the virus by the fall we are in deep trouble. This is what I have been predicting for months and unfortunately the worst is yet to come. People on this board just did not want to listen. We will be going in and out of economic shutdowns and social distancing/wearing masks for the next 2 to 3 years.

 

[shufan1993]

Not good. Not good at all.

 

[shufan1993]

We have been given an ultimatum. Wear masks or 180,000 in our country will be dead by October.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-06-24-20-intl/index.html

 

[NYShoreGuy]

Not good. Not good at all.

View embedded media

Nate silver is a stats and data guy with an agenda, said shu09 somewhere soon

 

[shufan1993]

Nate silver is a stats and data guy with an agenda, said shu09 somewhere soon

I'm blocked by @shu09 but facts don't care about Shu09's feelings.

 

[shufan1993]

Hi @SPK145. Numbers continue to go up in Florida. Who has been right about this?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html

 

[shu09]

Nate silver is a stats and data guy with an agenda, said shu09 somewhere soon

Cases up and deaths down is a good thing. That means younger people are getting the virus and most of them will be just fine.

Cases isn't the magic number. Hospitalizations relative to system capacity and deaths are the only metrics that matter.

 

[SPK145]

Hi @SPK145. Numbers continue to go up in Florida. Who has been right about this?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html

Cases going up but hospitalization and death rates going down so I’d have to say you are still wrong, you’re still on this “positive is a death sentence” malarkey.

 

[shufan1993]

Cases going up but hospitalization and death rates going down so I’d have to say you are still wrong, you’re still on this “positive is a death sentence” malarkey.

Hospitalizations going down? The numbers say the exact opposite. Stop your malarkey and fake news @SPK145

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...cases-rise-by-most-ever-hospitalizations-jump

 

[NYShoreGuy]

 

[shufan1993]

@NYShoreGuy sorry but that meme has been debunked

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN2252T6?__twitter_impression=true

 

[NYShoreGuy]

@NYShoreGuy sorry but that meme has been debunked

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN2252T6?__twitter_impression=true

 

[shufan1993]

View embedded media

Ok that doesn't take away the fact that the first tweet you posted isn't true. And you obviously know I am high on wearing masks. I wear one in my house all day.

 

[anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0]

NYShore posts such fake news even Bubble Boy is calling him out ha

 

[anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0]

Fake news CNN now predicting "apocalyptic" surges.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

 

[SPK145]

Hospitalizations going down? The numbers say the exact opposite. Stop your malarkey and fake news @SPK145

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...cases-rise-by-most-ever-hospitalizations-jump

As a pct. of positives they are going down, refuting your death sentence mantra.

How come you stopped focusing on GA, NJ, and NY like you use to?

 

[HALL85]

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936

Not to beat a dead horse, but the only two stats that really a matter are hospital capacity and fatalities. Fatalities have flattened out even with the increase in cases.

 

[shu09]

Fake news CNN now predicting "apocalyptic" surges.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

I thought the MSM had reconsidered the panic porn a few weeks ago with the riots going on but that seems to have moved to the rear view. They are back with the virus because that's the issue they can badger Trump the most with.

 

[Merge]

As a pct. of positives they are going down, refuting your death sentence mantra.

How come you stopped focusing on GA, NJ, and NY like you use to?

"As a pct. of positives"

I pointed out how flawed that stat was earlier. Not sure why you would stick with it.
Your denominator is wrong.

Hospitalizations are what you watch to understand the spread. If new hospitalizations are increasing, it is spreading.
If new hospitalizations are decreasing, the spread is being controlled.

The virus is being controlled in NJ and NY.
The virus is spreading in GA, FL, TX, AZ etc...

I am not arguing that those states need to shut down, but they could get to that point if people think they can just go about life normally.

 

[Merge]

I thought the MSM had reconsidered the panic porn a few weeks ago with the riots going on but that seems to have moved to the rear view. They are back with the virus because that's the issue they can badger Trump the most with.

I agree with that. The reporting on the pandemic during the protests was irresponsible in my opinion.

 

[Merge]

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936

Not to beat a dead horse, but the only two stats that really a matter are hospital capacity and fatalities. Fatalities have flattened out even with the increase in cases.

Agree. Those are the stats that matter and the story that data shows me is that basic social distancing and wearing masks help to keep resource use manageable.

 

[HALL85]

Agree. Those are the stats that matter and the story that data shows me is that basic social distancing and wearing masks help to keep resource use manageable.

Does it or is the virus working its way through the population and weakening. We had tens of thousands of protesters and rioters not social distancing or wearing masks, businesses opening, beaches opening (and few wearing masks...makes for interesting tan lines), with no material change in fatalities.

 

[Merge]

Does it or is the virus working its way through the population and weakening. We had tens of thousands of protesters and rioters not social distancing or wearing masks, businesses opening, beaches opening (and few wearing masks...makes for interesting tan lines), with no material change in fatalities.

Well, yes - It is working it's way through the population but at a higher rate than it needs to be because people in certain areas are not taking it seriously enough.

Weakening? I have not seen any evidence that would suggest the virus is weakening?
What are you referring to there?

Protests will lead to an increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
Business openings depends on if people are taking the virus seriously
Beaches are not really a concern for me assuming crowd levels are normal.

 

[HALL85]

Well, yes - It is working it's way through the population but at a higher rate than it needs to be because people in certain areas are not taking it seriously enough.

Weakening? I have not seen any evidence that would suggest the virus is weakening?
What are you referring to there?

Protests will lead to an increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
Business openings depends on if people are taking the virus seriously
Beaches are not really a concern for me assuming crowd levels are normal.

Not sure how you measure taking it seriously or not. Weakening in that cases are going up, but fatalities are going down. There is one school of thought from researchers that it is weakening although I think we are also doing a better job of protecting the most at risk populations as well. We are also seeing that medical professionals are triaging pateints better and not venting them so quickly. Acting on the data.

When I see pictures of beaches, they are crowded, few masks and you know darn well, there is no hand washing going on.

 

[SPK145]

Hospitalizations are what you watch to understand the spread. If new hospitalizations are increasing, it is spreading.
If new hospitalizations are decreasing, the spread is being controlled.

If new hospitalizations are not increasing as fast as new positives, the virus strength is decreasing, no?

 

[anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0]

If new hospitalizations are not increasing as fast as new positives, the virus strength is decreasing, no?

Or more young people are getting it, who will be fine.

 

[Merge]

Not sure how you measure taking it seriously or not. Weakening in that cases are going up, but fatalities are going down. There is one school of thought from researchers that it is weakening although I think we are also doing a better job of protecting the most at risk populations as well. We are also seeing that medical professionals are triaging pateints better and not venting them so quickly. Acting on the data.

When I see pictures of beaches, they are crowded, few masks and you know darn well, there is no hand washing going on.

I mean, we should be getting better at identifying cases earlier and having better treatments as we learn more... not sure that meets the definition of weakening though.

Like I said, beaches don't concern me much. The virus is spreading through air. If you are outdoors, it is much less likely you would get an infectious dose of the virus in the air... On a beach it is even less likely because of the wind.

 

[HALL85]

I mean, we should be getting better at identifying cases earlier and having better treatments as we learn more... not sure that meets the definition of weakening though.

Like I said, beaches don't concern me much. The virus is spreading through air. If you are outdoors, it is much less likely you would get an infectious dose of the virus in the air... On a beach it is even less likely because of the wind.

Weakening in that more people are testing positive, but hospitalizations are not nearly at the same pace.

If beaches don't concern you, are you okay with outdoor sporting events?

 

[Merge]

If new hospitalizations are not increasing as fast as new positives, the virus strength is decreasing, no?

I am not sure where the disconnect is here.
Maybe I am not doing a good enough job of explaining what I am saying?

We are not identifying all cases. Initially we were only testing people with symptoms.
Of course the rate of hospitalizations would be higher then because you are excluding people with no or mild symptoms.

As you expand testing, the rate people will be hospitalized will go down.

 

[Merge]

Weakening in that more people are testing positive, but hospitalizations are not nearly at the same pace.

That only works if you assume we have identified all cases. We are not even close there.
We don't know how many people were infected.

If beaches don't concern you, are you okay with outdoor sporting events?

Depends on if they are taking precautions or not.
Full stadium seating with no precautions? No.

 

[HALL85]

That only works if you assume we have identified all cases. We are not even close there.
We don't know how many people were infected.



Depends on if they are taking precautions or not.
Full stadium seating with no precautions? No.

Not sure what identifying "all" cases has to do with anything. Like I said earlier, I recall reading a story from a researcher indicating that infections are weakening. Also in speaking with a couple of hospital folks, they have shared that the cases they are seeing are not as severe and length of stay is less on average. I would guess we will see some retrospective data at some point.

 

[Merge]

Not sure what identifying "all" cases has to do with anything.

When you say

"Weakening in that more people are testing positive, but hospitalizations are not nearly at the same pace." -

There is no way to know if that is true or not because we don't know how many people have actually been infected.

If Texas ends up with the same number of infections that New York had, there is nothing to suggest that will not result in a similar number of hospitalizations.

Like I said earlier, I recall reading a story from a researcher indicating that infections are weakening.

Saw that come from Italy and some US doctors did not agree.
No studies on it though.

Also in speaking with a couple of hospital folks, they have shared that the cases they are seeing are not as severe and length of stay is less on average.

That's good, but anecdotal. Length of stay should decrease as we learn how to treat it
I just don't think we should be going with a presumption that the virus itself is weakening which would lead to people not being vigilant in efforts to contain it.

 

[HALL85]

I just don't think we should be going with a presumption that the virus itself is weakening which would lead to people not being vigilant in efforts to contain it.

Yes, I'm not Dr. Fauci and giving guidance....lol. I think it's encouraging to hear health providers saying that the symptoms they are seeing are not as severe as they had been seeing.

 

[shufan1993]

Fake news CNN now predicting "apocalyptic" surges.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

Hi @kniespolice. I have to correct you on this. CNN did not predict an "apocalyptic" surge. This quote is from a direct person. CNN just quoted this person. Dr. Peter Hotez said, "The big metro seem to be rising very quickly and some of the models are on the verge of being apocalyptic". CNN as a news industry did not say this. Please read the article next time.