Dr. Fauci gives grim projection
- Thread starter NYShoreGuy
- Start date
We will keep an eye on that. They have a long way to go to catch NY, NJ, MA deaths/100K
Cases were rising before 14 days ago yet deaths remain either fairly consistent or are decreasing.
Maybe it's 21 days? Run the numbers, move the goalposts, and see what fits.
But they just started tracking probable covid-19 deaths. That means these deaths could be from March. It doesn't mean there is a spike now.
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
Guest
And sadly this is an election between the lesser of two evils. Do you want your rights infringed on, be told you're a racist, maybe have to pay reparations for things you had nothing to do with or do you want to deal with the lunatic another 4 years. We seriously need a 3rd party to emerge that runs center.
As I have explained many times here. It's never been about the number of cases.
We have no idea how many people have actually been infected. Not sure why you aren't grasping that.
Using your baseball analogy, one team had 1 hit, the other had 18. Who won the game? You can't answer that question because you don't know all of the relevant information you would need to do so.
It is, and has always been about hospitalizations and deaths.
Hospitalizations are starting to trend upwards because the virus is spreading in areas where it has the opportunity to do so.
Deaths in those areas is going to trend upwards as well.
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
Guest
Hospitalizations going up but what's the percent capacity? We can't shut down the country again for people getting infected if 1) 99% of peoppe will be fine and 2) hospitals have plenty of capacity
I'll agree that there are certain people in the media that are glad this is happening under Trump. It's gross, and one of the reasons why I don't watch cable news.
But the virus isn't going away based on who wins the election.
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
Guest
Well said. It's here for the long haul, but we have to figure out a way to live with in to ensure the country doesn't suffer irreparable harm.
I don't know where the virus will or won't be in 4 months. What I do know is the coverage/hype/hysteria over it will be affected by the election result.
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
Guest
I don't think Trump is going to win, although he was counted out in 2016. I just can't believe Biden has 0 ideas on how to run the country and may actually win.
Exactly. We need to learn to live with it including making efforts to keep the spread low.
Right now that means wearing a mask in public and additional restrictions indoors.
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
Guest
Merge answer me this. Why is the mayor of California closing beaches but telling people they should still protest? Am I taking crazy pills? What would stop me from sitting on the beach and saying I am protesting the shutdowns? Can I peacefully protest this?
If the situation on the ground is the same as it is today (hospitalizations getting worse) I think the more liberal media will still blame Trump and his "enablers" and conservative media will start to blame Biden for not having a plan.
No idea.
I don't see as much of a risk in outdoor environments and I don't think closing beaches makes much sense as long as they can maintain some type of crowd control.
Agree, it's hard to see Trump winning at this point. The relentless hammering of him in the press has finally achieved its goal. His support is down to pretty much only his hardcore supporters who will never abandon him.
Dr. Gottlieb says the worst will be over by January.
An interesting quote from him: "We should do everything we can to preserve what we want of our way of life over that time period to just get through it.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/dr-...navirus-epidemic-will-be-over-by-january.html
An interesting quote from him: "We should do everything we can to preserve what we want of our way of life over that time period to just get through it.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/dr-...navirus-epidemic-will-be-over-by-january.html
Not sure we hit herd immunity by January... but agree that we are buying time until we have a vaccine and we should get there around that time frame.
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
Guest
Maybe this will mutate down into something along those lines. Who knows? The outbreak will eventually burn itself out.
Dr. Gottlieb has certainly been more credible than Dr. Fauci through all of this.
Obviously they are still researching, but initial studies suggest that there is at least short term immunity from getting reinfected.
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
Guest
Is the Texas Covid ‘Spike’ Fake News?
By Ron Paul
07/06/2020
On July 2nd, Texas Governor Greg Abbott issued an executive order mandating the wearing of face masks across the state, whether indoors or outdoors, when six feet cannot be maintained between people. In the governor’s decree, he cited a rise in Covid cases, a rise in test positivity, and a rise in hospitalizations as justification to force people to cover their faces in public.
The move is not only a violation of the civil liberties of all Texans. Abbott may have based his executive order on inaccurate information about a “rise” in Covid cases due to the Texas State Department of Health Services changing the definition of what constitutes a “Covid case.”
Thanks goes to Collin County Judge Chris Hill for blowing the whistle on what appears to be a move in mid-May to redefine what was a “Covid” case to open the door to a massive increase – all to match the mainstream media line that a “second wave” was on the way.
In a Commissioners Court hearing for Collin County on May 18th, it was revealed that while previously the determination of a Covid “case” was a confirmed test result, the definition was suddenly changed to count “probable” cases as “cases.” At the same time, the threshold for determining “probable” was lowered to a ridiculous level.
As Judge Hill said at that May 18th meeting, “If you have a subjective fever and you have a headache and you live in Collin County, you now meet the qualifications to be a probable COVID patient. It is remarkable how low the standard is now.”
Even worse, once a “probable” case was determined based on possibly unrelated subjective criteria, up to 15 people in possible contact with that “probable” case were also listed as “probable cases.” And “probable cases” were considered cases.
Repeat that farce across Texas and is it any wonder there was a “spike” in “cases”?
Also, Governor Abbott’s claim that hospitals were being over-run by Covid patients was refuted by the Houston hospital directors themselves, who said they were nowhere near actual capacity and in fact were about the same level as they were last year.
The basis for Abbott’s unconstitutional “executive order” has been shown to be false. Will he admit his mistake?
It is encouraging to see so many local and county officials across Texas announcing they will refuse to enforce Governor Abbott’s unconstitutional face mask order. Thankfully the spirit of freedom and love of liberty is still alive in Texas.
The “second wave” is driven by propaganda. Across the country, Covid testing increased from about 150,000 to more than 700,000 per day. You can’t drive through Houston without seeing a flurry of signs advertising “Free Covid test! Results in 15 minutes!” Last week Reuters reported that tests shipped around the country by the federal government were contaminated.
Deaths from coronavirus – even the deaths “with” coronavirus rather than deaths “from” coronavirus – are down more than 90 percent since the peak in April. The decline in deaths continues. That means we are closer to the “herd immunity” that will finally kill this virus. Yet Governor Abbott and others across the country see this as a reason to lock the country back down.
By Ron Paul
07/06/2020
On July 2nd, Texas Governor Greg Abbott issued an executive order mandating the wearing of face masks across the state, whether indoors or outdoors, when six feet cannot be maintained between people. In the governor’s decree, he cited a rise in Covid cases, a rise in test positivity, and a rise in hospitalizations as justification to force people to cover their faces in public.
The move is not only a violation of the civil liberties of all Texans. Abbott may have based his executive order on inaccurate information about a “rise” in Covid cases due to the Texas State Department of Health Services changing the definition of what constitutes a “Covid case.”
Thanks goes to Collin County Judge Chris Hill for blowing the whistle on what appears to be a move in mid-May to redefine what was a “Covid” case to open the door to a massive increase – all to match the mainstream media line that a “second wave” was on the way.
In a Commissioners Court hearing for Collin County on May 18th, it was revealed that while previously the determination of a Covid “case” was a confirmed test result, the definition was suddenly changed to count “probable” cases as “cases.” At the same time, the threshold for determining “probable” was lowered to a ridiculous level.
As Judge Hill said at that May 18th meeting, “If you have a subjective fever and you have a headache and you live in Collin County, you now meet the qualifications to be a probable COVID patient. It is remarkable how low the standard is now.”
Even worse, once a “probable” case was determined based on possibly unrelated subjective criteria, up to 15 people in possible contact with that “probable” case were also listed as “probable cases.” And “probable cases” were considered cases.
Repeat that farce across Texas and is it any wonder there was a “spike” in “cases”?
Also, Governor Abbott’s claim that hospitals were being over-run by Covid patients was refuted by the Houston hospital directors themselves, who said they were nowhere near actual capacity and in fact were about the same level as they were last year.
The basis for Abbott’s unconstitutional “executive order” has been shown to be false. Will he admit his mistake?
It is encouraging to see so many local and county officials across Texas announcing they will refuse to enforce Governor Abbott’s unconstitutional face mask order. Thankfully the spirit of freedom and love of liberty is still alive in Texas.
The “second wave” is driven by propaganda. Across the country, Covid testing increased from about 150,000 to more than 700,000 per day. You can’t drive through Houston without seeing a flurry of signs advertising “Free Covid test! Results in 15 minutes!” Last week Reuters reported that tests shipped around the country by the federal government were contaminated.
Deaths from coronavirus – even the deaths “with” coronavirus rather than deaths “from” coronavirus – are down more than 90 percent since the peak in April. The decline in deaths continues. That means we are closer to the “herd immunity” that will finally kill this virus. Yet Governor Abbott and others across the country see this as a reason to lock the country back down.
On July 6th, the Texas DOHS website says 8,181 people are hospitalized with Covid.
On June 26th, the Texas DOHS website says 5,102 people were hospitalized with Covid.
On June 6th, the Texas DOHS website says 1,822 people were hospitalized with Covid
That is a sizeable 10 and 30 day increase. https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f
On July 6th the Testing Positivity Rate is 13.52%
On June 26 the Testing Positivity Rate was 13.23%
On June 6th the Testing Positivity Rate was 8%
The good news is in the last 10 days the rate of Positive tests seems to have leveled off. The bad news is 13% is too high and has increased significantly in the past 30 days.
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f
Hi folks. Like I have predicted NJ is now going backwards. The very crucial transmission rate is now above 1 again. Like I have been saying the state has just opened too quickly and unfortunately the transmission rate of this horrible disease is going up again. Governor Murphy has announced he is stopping all reopening steps today. I did predict the state will be lock down again in September. It looks like it could be sooner now.
Simple virology suggests that. Found an interesting article by Dr. Francis Collins, an opinion piece, but a very educated opinion:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...wuAg59tqorePXDK41dOhAHiutuXMRb-K1WCON04g3UbSI
Hi folks, the United States is now in the threat of "Free Fall". A few states are now reaching hospital capacity. Not good, not good at all. And people on this board will continue to ignore how dangerous this virus really is.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html
"If 99% of people will be fine"
1% of 328 million Americans is 3.28 million people. We can't shut down the country for 3.28 million people??
Hi folks. Can you let me know what I have got wrong so far? I was called a "moron" and "joke" for making predictions months ago and I am correct now. I also said we will be making masks for the rest of our lives indoors! Looks like that will be right too! Do I look like a moron now? Will people on this board start listening to me?
you got me. early modeling said without mitigation 70% of the US would become infected. 2.3 million people is nothing. it's fine, everythings fine. you should go to disney world
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
Guest
You should protest with your buddies, shut down the economy, but protest and loot.
Yes, let's rely completely on the models. The models that predicted the 2016 election incorrectly, the models that predict the weather incorrectly on any given day, the models that predict college basketball and get it wrong. And the models that predict diseases! Oh, got that one wrong too!
what happens when you do get the virus a second time? is it just a fluke oddity?
The models in 2016 were within the margin of error. Projected to win by about 1% less than she won the popular vote by.
Weather models are actually pretty damn good overall... but like any other statistics when there is a 70% chance of rain, 3 times out of 10 means it’s not going to rain.
It’s projected that about 6% of the country has been infected with 130k dead. Left to run it’s course and 50% of this country gets infected what does that look like as far as the number of deaths?
