It’s not linear though. Treatments and therapies are available now that weren’t 3-4 months ago.
Dr. Fauci gives grim projection
- Thread starter NYShoreGuy
- Start date
Agreed. Which is again why wearing masks and slowing the spread is better than the virus spreading rapidly with a r0 approaching 3.
50% infected in 2020 would be far worse than 50% infected by 2022.
Models are not perfect. There will be errors, but let’s not throw away the data just because you brought your umbrella to the park and it didn’t rain.
It’s pretty obvious that many young people are not wearing masks and social distancing. It goes with the territory. And they are not getting hospitalized nor dying. That’s driving the infection rate. Fatality rate is still declining.
Right. The modeling assumption of 6% of the US having been infected includes young people who do not get as sick.
Their estimate of the mortality rate is somewhere around 0.8%. We can probably still improve that further but that still represents a lot of people if half the country gets infected.
Wolf: State in better place STATE
Amid concerns of a spike, Pa. has far fewer new cases than some areas
Wolf
By Ford Turner and Julia Shanahan
HARRISBURG – Gov. Tom Wolf on Monday said that while he was concerned about potential increases in new coronavirus cases after Fourth of July gatherings, Pennsylvania was in a better position than some other states.
“Pennsylvania has shown as a state an increase in the number of cases, but keep in mind that is from a pretty low base,” Wolf told reporters Monday. “States are talking 10,000 new cases a day. We are now at 500, over the weekend, in new cases.”
Overall, Wolf said, “Pennsylvania is in pretty good shape.”
Amid concerns of a spike, Pa. has far fewer new cases than some areas
Wolf
By Ford Turner and Julia Shanahan
HARRISBURG – Gov. Tom Wolf on Monday said that while he was concerned about potential increases in new coronavirus cases after Fourth of July gatherings, Pennsylvania was in a better position than some other states.
“Pennsylvania has shown as a state an increase in the number of cases, but keep in mind that is from a pretty low base,” Wolf told reporters Monday. “States are talking 10,000 new cases a day. We are now at 500, over the weekend, in new cases.”
Overall, Wolf said, “Pennsylvania is in pretty good shape.”
Imagine being a restaurant owner and you have to plan to stop, start, stop, start opening and closing your business every day based on how Murphy feels when he wakes up in the morning. Do you order food? Bring staff in? etc.? Then he shuts it down and that creates more employee hardship, spoiled food....
On another front, airlines are now all selling middle seats, so it's okay to be sitting six inches away from someone for 2, 3, 6 hours. Also, if you go to one of the "high risk" states you have to quarantine when you return home, however that flight crew is probably in 3-4 cities each day, but doesn't apply to them. The random application of restrictions is pretty amazing.
it's not okay to do this and the airlines shouldn't be doing that
Shu09 why did republican gov in ohio not ok the pro football hof ceremony, why is the memorial now without spectators and no wednesday pro am?
The gymnastics these politicians are performing to argue that the protests didn't have any effect on the increased case numbers when the data indicates it is the most likely cause is funny and sad to watch at the same time. All of the graphs in these states seeing surges spiked a couple of weeks after the big protests happened. The average age of a positive test has fallen considerably. Who protests? Mostly young people. Hmmmm. But go ahead, get out there and exercise your right to protest because BLM!!**
**- only when a white police officer is responsible, but please ignore the 87 shot and 17 killed in Chicago over the weekend and the 3 poor souls shot in cold blood in a NYC apartment hallway.
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
Guest
It's a war on whites. It happened in Zimbabwe twenty years ago, and were trending that way here.
Little doubt in my mind that they contributed, but the large spikes are not occurring everywhere there were large protests. There were large protests all over the country.
The spikes are happening in areas where they don't wear masks and bars and restaurants are open.
He is bright guy. Born with a silver spoon
Ran his family business before being Governor. That is a plus.
Well duh, when they change how they define having COVID like they did, numbers will go up. Again, duh.
You are wrong.
The number of hospitalizations in Texas is going up due to Lab Confirmed positives.
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f
I provided numbers, not theories. How you interpret the numbers is up to you. My opinion is broadening the criteria of what constitutes a Covid case does not account for why hospitalizations increased from 1,716 on May 15th to 8,698 yesterday.
On May 15th the Positive test rate was 5.09%. On July 5th it was 13.5%. The test, as I understand it, is objective. Broadening the criteria for a Covid19 hospitalization would not have an effect on the percentage of positive tests.
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
Guest
Phil Murphy imposing a quarantine on anyone coming in from Delaware. He can F off, the hypocrite marches in protests and now imposes a 2 week quarantine in someone coming from our neighbors. I will not be following his orders after my beach vacation .
The governor and administration are pretty prescriptive on KRIs and when they will and will not open and or order a pause. Much more so then Texas for example that is backtracking or Florida whose Governor has completely abdicated his leadership to local authorities rather then mandate masks or close bars.
Hi All. This health expert supports my view on mask wearing. If you remember correctly I was saying back March that we will be wearing masks for the rest of our lives. Looking more likely this will be the case. Does anyone still doubt me?
http://dlvr.it/Rb97bN
http://dlvr.it/Rb97bN
It will take a very very long time to reach herd immunity. Probably 8 to 10 years. We will be wearing masks coverings until then. Gone are the days of going to a sporting event without a mask. Vaccinations will take 3 to 5 years to distribute throughout the world too. I don't think people on this board fully realize that. We are years from being out of the woods from this virus
Yesterday was not a good day for Texas hospitals. Covid hospitalizations increased from 8,698 to 9,286 and available ICU beds are now at 1,148. For comparison purposes, on June 25, there were 1,322 ICU beds available.
Test Positivity Rates seem to have leveled off at around 13.5%. Hopefully, that number will start to trend lower.
Lets not forget Florida where hospitalizations are going "down down down"
Except of course, their 7 day average of new covid admissions is the highest it has ever been in the state.
The first 7 days of July, there were 1,854 new Covid admissions in Florida.
The first 7 days of June, there were 762
Lets not forget Florida where hospitalizations are going "down down down"
Except of course, their 7 day average of new covid admissions is the highest it has ever been in the state.
The first 7 days of July, there were 1,854 new Covid admissions in Florida.
The first 7 days of June, there were 762
Agreed, the numbers in Florida are not good either. On June 25th the available ICU beds were as follows
As of today there are 924 ICU beds available.
https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABI...ital?:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&:embed=y
I believe Covid-19 represents a serious national health emergency. Not everyone on this board agrees.
Lets not forget Florida where hospitalizations are going "down down down"
Except of course, their 7 day average of new covid admissions is the highest it has ever been in the state.
The first 7 days of July, there were 1,854 new Covid admissions in Florida.
The first 7 days of June, there were 762
Aren't those numbers really minuscule over the population of the entire state of FL of 21.48 million?
New positive cases in FL over the last 2 days are trending lower than last week.
How much hospital capacity do they have? How long can they sustain the increase in hospitalizations?
Not as many tests performed and a higher positive rate.
Last 2 days 68,995 tests (34,498 per day). 13,683 positive = 19.83% positive
7 days prior - 318,302 (45,472 per day) tests. 59,036 positive = 18.54% positive.
You think that's good news?
I can only imagine the scorn that would be heaped upon you if after two days of increasing positive cases you declared a new trend. Oh how the mighty have fallen.
In the past two days, hospitalizations in Texas increased from 9286 to 9689 and available ICU beds decreased to 953 from 1148.
After a week of test positivity rates in the range of 13.5%, in the past two days rates increased to 15.03% & 15.56%. Two days is not a trend but rates are moving in the wrong direction.
Approximately 85% of total ICU beds are in use . Available ICU beds have decreased from 924 to 859,
The last update was June 25
1.IHME projects 148,934 deaths by August 4 & 185,087 by October 1
2.Youyang Gu projects 152,635 deaths by August 4 & 204,437 by October 1
3. Projected NJ deaths by August 4 are 15,943 for IHME & 15,825 for Gu
4. Per the NJ dashboard, ventilators in use decreased from 210 to 79 (2.5% of capacity)
5. The critical/ICU beds in use decreased from 252 to 149
The available number of ICU beds increased since July 8 from 924 to 1037. The total Census is 6132. The % available is 16.9%
Georgia
June 14
901 available ICU beds
4,773 available hospital beds
July 14
449 available ICU beds
2,522 available hospital beds
June 14
901 available ICU beds
4,773 available hospital beds
July 14
449 available ICU beds
2,522 available hospital beds
I was talking about NJ too. You have stated in the past that NJ’s healthcare system managed covid sufficiently. Some hospitals barely. Wouldn’t the steps Murphy took have helped to smooth the curve? And most of the steps he had taken was directly out of the administrations playbook. He was the first governor to mandate masks. Many other states, including Deep South, are now doing the same. Murphy has not backtracked nearly as much as most other states.
Finally, LTC death percentage is average across states. Murphy has done as well as one could imagine with proactively mitigating risks where the impacts were not well known.
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-...rus-model-predicts-224-000-deaths-by-november
Around a quarter of a million people dead by November in the United States per this projection. 44,000 could be be saved if 95% of Americans wear face covering between now and November. But unfortunately I don't have faith in my fellow Americans. Who would ever imagine this pandemic would get this bad. A terrible terrible time for this country. And as I have been saying we are far from out of the woods. This is just the beginning. We won't be out of the woods for a few or maybe several years. I was reading a study that said today we could be realistically be looking at a social distancing/face covering mandate to 2027.
Around a quarter of a million people dead by November in the United States per this projection. 44,000 could be be saved if 95% of Americans wear face covering between now and November. But unfortunately I don't have faith in my fellow Americans. Who would ever imagine this pandemic would get this bad. A terrible terrible time for this country. And as I have been saying we are far from out of the woods. This is just the beginning. We won't be out of the woods for a few or maybe several years. I was reading a study that said today we could be realistically be looking at a social distancing/face covering mandate to 2027.
@NYShoreGuy Also interesting going back to the original article on this thread back in late March. Dr. Tony Fauci said between 100k-200k dead. And we might already be seeing a quarter million by October. Not good. Not good at all. And I was criticized early on for saying how bad this pandemic would get. Unfortunately we are not even close to the finish line yet. After reading a study today we probably won't be at the finish line until 2027.
If by Fuzzy math, you mean real math that the majority of the country doesn't understand so they make fun of it out of ignorance, then yes... I agree.
