Speaking of, while I'm not in real estate, when it comes to residential, I do know that the pipeline for those wanting to move out out of NYC into the NJ suburbs - particularly along the Morris-Essex train line - is red hot. It's always strong, but this has really shot it through the roof.
Dr. Fauci gives grim projection
- Thread starter NYShoreGuy
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Speaking of, while I'm not in real estate, when it comes to residential, I do know that the pipeline for those wanting to move out out of NYC into the NJ suburbs - particularly along the Morris-Essex train line - is red hot. It's always strong, but this has really shot it through the roof.
NJ and LI are about to get back to bidding wars...I know there was last weekend in my hometown for a house that needs to be completely gutted. Time to buy in NYC if you want to stay or make a long term investment will be the next 2-3 years. With reduced commercial rent look for PE backed small brands or large chains to dominate and take up all the good spots in NYC. Lets not forget all the M&A that is about to go down for department stores and other clothing brands.
Interesting read. Collateral damage in lives lost from shutdown. I’ve seen multiple cases in the last few weeks of multi-generational family businesses that have been decimated. Entire businesses destroyed with little chance of recovering.
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anon_fsijwwodmilhm
Guest
Thanks to shu09, we have a new model to track. The new model is highly critical of the IHME model so it will be good to compare them. Here is the link https://covid19-projections.com/
1. IHME projects 143,357 deaths by August 4. The range of uncertainty is 115/206
2. Youyang Gu projects 195,077 deaths by August 4. The range of uncertainty is 120/337
3. Projected NJ deaths are 14,077 for IHME and 16,495 for Gu.
4. Per the NJ dashboard, Ventilators in use decreased to 789 (25% of capacity) down from 1,169 two weeks ago
5. The critical/ICU beds in use decreased to 977 from 1534 two weeks ago.
Been seeing more and more publicity around success with critically ill patients using ECMO. Complicated procedure but seems to be working well for patients that are not elderly and are critically ill.
https://labblog.uofmhealth.org/rounds/when-ventilators-dont-help-covid-19-patients-might
https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...arl-viddal-doctor-recovers-severe-case-2020-5
https://labblog.uofmhealth.org/rounds/when-ventilators-dont-help-covid-19-patients-might
https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...arl-viddal-doctor-recovers-severe-case-2020-5
https://www.uscovidplasma.org/Mayo Clinic should be publishing safety and efficacy data in the next couple of weeks on Convalescent Plasma therapy. To date about 20,000 patients have been treated with a subset under the Mayo protocol. If results are positive I would expect the FDA will approve and expanded use.
1. IHME projects 135,109 deaths by August 4. The range of uncertainty is 120/160
2. Youyang Gu projects 163,205 deaths by August 4. The range of uncertainty is 124/215
3. Projected NJ deaths are 12,577 for IHME and 13,902 for Gu
4. Per the NJ dashboard, ventilators in use decreased from 789 to 459 (15% of capacity)
5. The critical/ICU beds in used decreased from 977 to 639
i left nyc early. officially out this month. my gf job basically got rid if their nyc office for good. were not ready to buy unfortunately. suburbs will be skyrocketing, but cities arent really offering anything but disease, crime, dirt, and cramped spaces. pay more for all the worst things? no thank you. cant imagine it gets back to normal anytime soon.
I don’t know what others are experiencing but I can tell you that there’s been no real significant movement of NYC buyers at any of the suburban new construction communities I represent. There has been a bump at higher end rental properties in Hoboken and Jersey City. Not saying it won’t happen, but it hasn’t happened yet.
Dr. Fauci the ping pong ball continues to bounce around like never before. Yesterday he says a potential vaccine may not provide long term immunity but there may be 100 million doses available by the end of the year. Remember, he said it would be 12-18 months at best when this first started.
Said the same back in March. We won't know if it is effective or not before we are producing it.
Link messes up. replace the xx with tt
hxxps://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/dr-fauci-explains-the-timeline-and-risks-of-creating-a-covid-19-vaccine-81255493858
The NIH and Moderna started their vaccine study on January 13, 2020. Almost like he was basing that 12-18 month timeline based on his experience developing vaccines, and that our hope right now is that we have a vaccine produced which beats his timeline by a month which we won't know if it is effective yet.
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
Guest
Moderna has never successfully commercialized a drug in their 10 years of existence, but their executives just cashed out BIGLY on their stocks on the news of their vaccine. They should be investigated.
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to play devils advocate, end of year could be 10 months (as opposed to 12, big deal) and nobody has ever seen this level of pharma fast tracking. its unprecidented.
and isnt it too early for you and spk to judge? with new info comes new projections. there may be a chance its end of year, but what if its not? then hes right?
i think this is a bit much of a witch hunt.
I don't disagree with that... but that has nothing to do with what we are talking about.
Fauci has been saying 12-18 months for a vaccine.
Phase 1 started in January 2020, and we hope to have production by December.
He's giving his best estimate based on his experience in the field and people try to find holes in what he is saying for some reason.
shame on him for maybe being 2 months off on a prediction for something thats never been done before!
The facts are that he's been all over the place on this issue. In January and February he was saying the virus wasn't a threat to Americans. Then he wants all these lockdowns, now he's all over the place on vaccines. Can we really take him seriously? His education and background is one thing, but his public statements are another.
Makes estimates based on historical experience and modifies his views as he learns more about the virus.
He was always pretty reasonable and hedged that things could change quickly if we saw community spread.
i guess his opinion changes once he gets more information. what do you expect him to do? as it relates to vaccines, having one available is more a matter of business/politics since its shortcutting all the medical checks and balances to get something asap. i the winner of the race will have a few high level politicians making a lot of money.
It's really awful. He has been all over the map. You cannot get a straight answer from any in Washington.
And forget the President. He's simply starring in his own bizarre reality show. He conned anyone who thought he'd come in and "drain the swamp". Instead he fell right into the bickering.
this is more of a factor for not getting one over the bill gates theory. sadly nobody will ever be punished if it all fails
the 50 part netflix special is going to be outrageous. hell give entertainment content for centuries.
people dont want to get a vaccine because they think they are being micro chipped. sorry that was a confusing post
I don't think I'll be taking this vaccine 1) because this virus isn't a major threat to me at my age, 2) I don't trust something rushed though so quickly. There should be real safety concerns here.
I've never even had a flu shot, not going to take one for corona either.
How often do you see people who are more at risk than you?
Will you modify your interactions with them if they have not received the vaccine?
Genuinely curious, not trying to say you should or shouldn't.
I would not judge anyone that chose to have or not have the vaccine. Personally, I would not be the first one on line to receive it. I am not in one of the at risk categories and it’s not like taking the vaccine doesn’t come with its own set of risks (and especially a drug that is new and has been fast tracked.) If I had comorbidities I would probably consider it.
I'm not concerned about that. Visited my grandmother recently. She's still here, imagine that?!
Fair enough. Hopefully you find out you already have had it as you suspect and are immune now.
I had an interesting conversation with one of my clients today. He is a CEO who heads up two companies that do some business in Wuhan.
His Wuhan contacts warned him about the virus way before we heard about it. They heeded the warning and stocked up on masks and made other provisions for sanitizing and for working remotely. The guys from China gave him a bunch of advice and lesson learned they listened to all of it.
They were declared to be an essential business and kept their operations going. They ended up having one person in the company test positive which put them into very stringent controls.
During the conversation it was clear they were taking this serious on all levels.
He told me about what happened when he told the shop for employees that the person was infected. He said these are hearty, surly kind of guys and the reaction was fear in their eyes.
He was surprised at that and ask them how they were feeling and turns out they were not worried about themselves but more worried about what they might have done to their families.
That made me think of some of the things Merge has posted regarding his concern for infecting others.
His Wuhan contacts warned him about the virus way before we heard about it. They heeded the warning and stocked up on masks and made other provisions for sanitizing and for working remotely. The guys from China gave him a bunch of advice and lesson learned they listened to all of it.
They were declared to be an essential business and kept their operations going. They ended up having one person in the company test positive which put them into very stringent controls.
During the conversation it was clear they were taking this serious on all levels.
He told me about what happened when he told the shop for employees that the person was infected. He said these are hearty, surly kind of guys and the reaction was fear in their eyes.
He was surprised at that and ask them how they were feeling and turns out they were not worried about themselves but more worried about what they might have done to their families.
That made me think of some of the things Merge has posted regarding his concern for infecting others.
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Sad..... no....tragic.
Black lives matter.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/small-town-police-chief-killed-officers-cities-wounded/story?id=71017820
Black lives matter.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/small-town-police-chief-killed-officers-cities-wounded/story?id=71017820
My routine wouldn't change much whether I had it or not. I believe I did, but that's just speculation based on timing, what I've read and what I felt.
Saw this today and then his grieving family. Heart wrenching.
Sad to say, I think there are leaders out there that want to keep this issue alive. I am skeptical about those that are outraged about Floyd’s death but don’t offer any solutions.
As the US increasingly becomes an international outlier on schools being closed (I've said from the beginning that schools shouldn't be closed as the data/facts say children are at little to no risk), Dr. Ping Pong Ball now says keeping schools closed in the fall might be "a bit of a reach."
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/us/fauci-schools-reopening-coronavirus/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/us/fauci-schools-reopening-coronavirus/index.html
Whether schools will be open in the fall has little to do with the risk to the children.
It has to do with the risk that the children will spread it to their teachers and families when they get home. There are millions of school aged children who live with their grandparents and even more where grandparents are the ones picking them up from school and watching them while their parents are at work.
I expect schools to be open though the teachers union is a wild card here. . Not sure if they will fight reopening before a vaccine is available.
Children as vectors has not been proven. It is assumed by some, but there is little evidence that they result in a dramatic increase in cases.
This has become another opportunity to see how inept our government is as well and people questioning over-reach.
For the last three months, the vast majority of the population has been compliant to every restriction the federal and state governments have put in place because we were warned that hundreds of thousands or millions of people would die and our hospitals would be over-run. But all of that has gone out the window since George Floyd was killed. If I had a small business, I would have been fined if opened, but no warnings, plans much less consequences for tens of thousands that protest/riot.
Where is the truth?
For the last three months, the vast majority of the population has been compliant to every restriction the federal and state governments have put in place because we were warned that hundreds of thousands or millions of people would die and our hospitals would be over-run. But all of that has gone out the window since George Floyd was killed. If I had a small business, I would have been fined if opened, but no warnings, plans much less consequences for tens of thousands that protest/riot.
Where is the truth?
