One of my pet peeves is people who eat like crap, drink soda and alcohol like a fish, get sick and then complain that they can't work, don't have insurance and want an entitlement from the state.
Dr. Fauci gives grim projection
- Thread starter NYShoreGuy
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One of my pet peeves is people who eat like crap, drink soda and alcohol like a fish, get sick and then complain that they can't work, don't have insurance and want an entitlement from the state.
Half of the fatalities in PA are from nursing home or personal care facility residents.
https://www.lvb.com/nursing-homes-a...l&utm_source=Act-On+Software&utm_medium=email
https://www.lvb.com/nursing-homes-a...l&utm_source=Act-On+Software&utm_medium=email
$3,360 per year discount for Employee and Spouse ($1,680 each)
Body Mass Index ≤ 29.9 ($15 Monthly) ($6.92 Biweekly)
or waist ≤ 34.5 inches (female), ≤ 37 inches (male)
Blood Pressure ≤ 130/85 ($20 Monthly) ($9.23 Biweekly)
LDL Cholesterol ≤ 130 ($20 Monthly) ($9.23 Biweekly)
Glucose ≤ 110 ($15 Monthly) ($6.92 Biweekly)
or A1C ≤ 6
Negative Tobacco/Nicotine Result ($20 Monthly) ($9.23 Biweekly)
PCP Exam ($30 Monthly) ($13.85 Biweekly)
Teladoc Registration ($20 Monthly) ($9.23 Biweekly)
Bronx ER doctor calls for an end to all lockdowns.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/27/ive-w...HQRaWKmFNCoPEXPR3b5Z45tvi5n6aAySmIWbTVdtts_Dk
https://nypost.com/2020/04/27/ive-w...HQRaWKmFNCoPEXPR3b5Z45tvi5n6aAySmIWbTVdtts_Dk
Thanks for that. I hope more adopt something similar. Makes so much sense in my opinion.
I’m trending that way as well. The data so far seems to suggest that it’s time to ease restrictions.
IHME updated their projections on April 27
1. Projected US deaths increased from 67641 to 74,073
2. The range of uncertainty is about the same and slightly higher from Min/max from 50/120 to 60/130
3. Projected NJ deaths increased slightly from 7058 to 7250
4. NJ Ventilators in use decreased from 1462 to 1303 (41% of capacity) (The high was 1705)
5. Critical and ICU bed totals declined from 1035/955 to 907/894
6. The divert list is no longer much of an issue
Some Monday morning quarterbacking among the talking heads suggests the right path would have been to isolate he elderly with pre-existing conditions and and then let everyone else go on with their lives with some sensible hygiene and distancing. Issue strong warning for younger people who have hypertension or diabetes or other compromises.
The new buzzword is "herd Immunity". I took that to mean that we missed an opportunity to let strong healthy people get the virus and develop the immunity. It will hurt us next year when it comes back not to mention the economic toll.
The new buzzword is "herd Immunity". I took that to mean that we missed an opportunity to let strong healthy people get the virus and develop the immunity. It will hurt us next year when it comes back not to mention the economic toll.
The more data that is coming out is pointing to the impact on the elderly population. I saw a story on ABC National news last night that 56% of deaths in Massachusetts have been nursing home patients. Add that to the PA data which indicated the same.
I’m close. I think open areas with social distancing and mask recommendations is not that risky at this point and should open.
I think Murphy’s plan of a 14 day continuous improvement and doubling the testing capacity is reasonable but should have been more quantifiable. We are in the middle of those improvements now. He should have provided some expectation of a timeline.
If we continue to see positive trends the rest of this week, hopefully we can open parks by the weekend and set a date for non essential businesses.
A lot of that is still guessing. There is still too much we don’t know. Culturally, I don’t think we would do a good enough job with social distancing without seeing that it does pose a major risk.
I think the stay at home orders were necessary to help fight this.
Warren County PA had 1 infection. They shut the entire county down.
I do not believe that was necessary.
Apparently, others agree with that.
One case was lost in the PA Supreme court and they plaintiffs are appeal to the US Supreme.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/us/corona-virus-lawsuits.html
Since that article was published, cases in PA grew by 500% and deaths by 1,800%. All while PA was essentially shut down.
If you leave one county open, and close the rest, all of the surrounding counties will flock to the one open county. Kind of negates the point of staying home in the first place so I do believe it was necessary. We are all in this together.
Looking back on this, it appears that the most prudent strategy if this happens again is to trigger a series of containment strategies to prevent spread, but also maintain economic balance. Good piece on 60 Minutes on Sunday with a company called Blue Dot Technology. It really points to that we should shut down all international travel as a first step. Not only from the guilty country (China in this case), but anywhere, as they were able to track via cell phone, movement from Wuhan through Europe and Japan especially. Once the virus was identified here, it would have been best to lockdown cities, states or regions depending on infections. If we had closed the tunnels, bridges, roads into and out Westchester County, Kirkland Washington, etc., it would have contained the initial movement with little or no movement to the rest of the country.
The more and more that comes out about this over the next few months, the more and more people will realize we were totally bamboozled by the government on this. When all is said and done, I think it probably comes out as an illness that is only slightly more deadly than the flu. Probably a death rate in the 0.5% neighborhood.
I believe Sweden had the right approach. Heightened awareness/common sense among younger people, but business as usual for them. Precautions for at risk folks.
I believe Sweden had the right approach. Heightened awareness/common sense among younger people, but business as usual for them. Precautions for at risk folks.
I think you are missing the point.
Look at the entire eastern portion of the state. I posted the map previously. One size shutdown policy does not fit all.
The argument that because we shut one place down we need to shut the entire country down because people will just go to the non-shutdown places en masse is not valid.
Here is a more current article on the lawsuits, i.e yesterday.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pe...avirus-executive-order-supreme-court-tom-wolf
The map I posted previously is shown below. Other data is below that.
Shutting down Counties that had 1-5 infections total is nuts.
Data:
Pennsylvania coronavirus numbers county-by-county:
- Adams County: 122 patients, 1 death
- Allegheny County: 1,224 patients, 73 deaths
- Armstrong County: 47 patients, 2 deaths
- Beaver County: 387 patients, 46 deaths
- Bedford County: 21 patients, 1 death
- Berks County: 2,526 patients, 89 deaths
- Blair County: 21 patients
- Bradford County: 28 patients, 2 deaths
- Bucks County: 2,585 patients, 148 deaths
- Butler County: 170 patients, 6 deaths
- Cambria County: 21 patients, 1 death
- Cameron County: 1 patient
- Carbon County: 164 patients, 12 deaths
- Centre County: 87 patients, 1 death
- Chester County: 1,214 patients, 81 deaths
- Clarion County: 22 patients, 1 death
- Clearfield County: 11 patients
- Clinton County: 25 patients
- Columbia County: 277 patients, 7 deaths
- Crawford County: 19 patients
- Cumberland County: 282 patients, 9 deaths
- Dauphin County: 529 patients, 21 deaths
- Delaware County: 3,361 patients, 142 deaths
- Elk County: 3 patients
- Erie County: 81 patients
- Fayette County: 79 patients, 4 deaths
- Forest County: 7 patients
- Franklin County: 227 patients, 2 deaths
- Fulton County: 3 patients
- Greene County: 25 patients
- Huntingdon County: 24 patients
- Indiana County: 63 patients, 4 deaths
- Jefferson County: 4 patients
- Juniata County: 79 patients
- Lackawanna County: 833 patients, 63 deaths
- Lancaster County: 1,633 patients, 75 deaths
- Lawrence County: 63 patients, 5 deaths
- Lebanon County: 621 patients, 7 deaths
- Lehigh County: 2,636 patients, 56 deaths
- Luzerne County: 2,035 patients, 71 deaths
- Lycoming County: 57 patients
- Mckean County: 5 patients
- Mercer County: 65 patients, 1 death
- Mifflin County: 30 patients
- Monroe County: 1,083 patients, 46 deaths
- Montgomery County: 3,817 patients, 232 deaths
- Montour County: 48 patients
- Northampton County: 1,834 patients, 49 deaths
- Northumberland County: 90 patients
- Perry County: 26 patients, 1 death
- Philadelphia County: 11,361 patients, 274 deaths
- Pike County: 352 patients, 12 deaths
- Potter County: 4 patients
- Schuylkill County: 324 patients, 5 deaths
- Snyder County: 33 patients, 1 death
- Somerset County: 25 patients
- Sullivan County: 1 patient
- Susquehanna County: 81 patients, 4 deaths
- Tioga County: 14 patients, 1 death
- Union County: 31 patients
- Venango County: 7 patients
- Warren County: 1 patient
- Washington County: 107 patients, 2 deaths
- Wayne County: 93 patients, 3 deaths
- Westmoreland County: 377 patients, 19 deaths
- Wyoming County: 18 patients, 2 deaths
- York County: 606 patients, 9 deaths
This was entirely unknown to us. We were seeing something rapidly spread and chose to err on the side of caution and mitigate the risk. I'm sure people will always question how we handled it, but we were far from bamboozled.
Unlikely from the data available to us at this point. I'd be happy to be wrong. Even so, 0.5% is 500% - 700% higher than the mortality rate of the flu. That's not insignificant.
They may have good results, or they may not. Right now, deaths per 100k in Sweden is 23. In neighboring Norway and Finland it is 4. It may or may not work, but their citizens got to see what happened around the world first so they know to take it seriously. Not sure that happens in the US had we not shut down.
It's easy to play Monday morning quarterback and say "See, we shouldn't have shut down because the virus wasn't here" but just as easy to respond by saying that map showing green means the shutdown worked by preventing the spread.
Disagree. If you try to stop the spread by limiting only the red areas, the people in the red areas start roaming around the green areas.
Regarding, "the shutdown worked by preventing the spread.", I don't think shutting down rural farmland counties had any impact on the spread. You are ignoring pretty obvious data.
I don't think rural Montana was necessary nor did it have any materiel impact. Maybe a city or two but not the boonies.
Yes, it is somewhat hindsight up until this point. Not opening up now is not hindsight or Monday morning quarterbacking. The data is there. To say, that, "if we open up now, we are all going to die" is ridiculous in light of the data.
Feel free to stay home if you believe it is unsafe in your neck of the woods My wife and I have a Friday tee time.
The points you make re real estate/NYC are already starting to happen; businesses coming up with alternatives to having their employees take public transportation, ie getting them cars/service, shuttles, opening satellite offices in suburban locations, etc. NYC may/will suffer the impact of this long after many/most areas. Could change the real estate landscape....just as urban areas were just becoming more popular again, living close to mass transit, etc....we may now see a shift back.
That is not from me...that is from the WSJ
I'm not ignoring data. I am assuming that if there is a large amount of people in a area with nothing to do because everything is shut down, many of them will drive to a nearby area that is not shut down.
Neither of us would be able to prove our argument because we are relying on assumptions of behavior.
but I'm glad the premise of your argument is that we shut down too much as opposed to looking at a red map and me saying that we didn't do enough.
I've never quite understood why people flock to urban areas where there are people on top of people. I've always preferred the suburbs and I absolutely love when I visit an even more rural area. Urban areas have much higher costs and my opinion is that outweighs the benefit of being close to a job, which is probably the #1 reason people move to cities.
The more data we see, it just seems that hard movement restrictions as opposed to broad behavioral changes would have had a much better outcome. As an example, the two hosptials in the Pocono's had a spike of COVID patients in their ER in early April and the vast majority were NYC residents (that had a house in the Poconos or wanted to get out of the city). If we had closed the state borders between NJ/NY and NY and PA and restricted all movement between those states, I'm pretty certain that the PA numbers would not be that bad. Outside of dealing with supply chain issues (that you can monitor drivers), it's more palatable for me to be able to move freely in my county or state than have to limit everything.
Yes, for some, but not for ALL areas. No one is going to drive 2 hours to a remote County to get their mani-pedi or dry cleaning.
Maybe. I disagree, but like I said, it's impossible to know and I would go with erring on the side of caution.
I think we did the right thing but it is time to reassess and start opening things up.
This should give an indication of hospital capacity and where we are on curve. Spoke to two major hospital systems in PA today. One is starting a seven-day/week surgery schedule starting Monday and will do that until they catch up. The other going normal full schedule next week and expanded hours in June.
Hi all. Dropping off this article here. Trying to warn people that we are truly in for the long term but people on this board don't want to listen to this advice. The experts in this article truly confirm that we are in for a brutal fall/winter.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/health/report-covid-two-more-years/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/health/report-covid-two-more-years/index.html
IHME has updated a couple times since April 22, incrementally increasing the projected US deaths from 67,000 to about 72,000.
1. Yesterday's update increased the projection to 134,475
2. The range of uncertainty has a min/max of 95/240
3. Projected NJ deaths increased to 16,044
4. NJ Ventilators in use decreased to 1,169 (37% of capacity).
5. The NJ dashboard stopped differentiating between Critical and ICU beds. They now only provide the total. The total is now 1534, down from 1990 on April 22
6. The divert list remains quiet, mostly at zero or maybe 1 hospital at any given time.
If the point is we should discontinue following the IHME model, that is ok. I chose this model originally because it is the one referenced by the WH. IHME has come under considerable criticism in the last two weeks and although I don't totally understand the math behind the models, they put their work out there to be peer reviewed.
I don't agree at all that we should stop using models. There are a number of them out there and the more we/they look at the data and try to interpret what is happening the more accurate they will become going forward. Rather than relying on one model, we should be using several, which is what the CDC seems to be doing. I relied on IHME for two reasons - it was the first major one I could find and it was easier to for me to track the changes on one model.
I don't agree at all that we should stop using models. There are a number of them out there and the more we/they look at the data and try to interpret what is happening the more accurate they will become going forward. Rather than relying on one model, we should be using several, which is what the CDC seems to be doing. I relied on IHME for two reasons - it was the first major one I could find and it was easier to for me to track the changes on one model.
Some people like the options you have with Urban living in terms of activiites and ease of transport. They are willing to pay a premium fo that, I know I was when I lived in Hoboken. Now I live in suberbea and miss certain aspects of that life. Everyone has a differnt goal in life and different approach.
But on the topic at hand I remember in March when somedoctor went on TV and said if at the end of this we all look around and say we overracted then its a good thing. I get his point but there needs to be balance and adjustments as life has gone off the rails here.
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I work for a think tank who is currently gathering tons of data (problem is the accuracy) and will submit a comprehensive report in 2021 or possibly depending on circumstances. I feel bad for NJ and NYC as those Governors (Cuomo and Murphy) really screwed the pooch with how they handled this outbreak. Dr. Fauci has been an unmitigated (2nd time) disaster and should be replaced with Dr. Ioannidis. Dr.(stay home and lock yourself in your house) Fauci is anticipating another wave to hit . Staying at home severely weakens the immune system. We have a model to compare two elements.Very interested to see how the states who are shut down the longest do with infection when they open up. Life needs to go on the fear mongering negative nancy's aren't helping the situation. Hopefully, nutrition (diet, vitamin's), health (physical and mental) and hygiene will be the building blocks. I say three Hail Mary's every morning for everybody who's life has been affected and also for the safety and good health for all.
Thanks for the insight. What is your data telling you about risk to the working population? Let's say those under 50 or 60 for purposes of this exercise.
If there is a vitamin or supplement that will prevent infection that company will get all the business
I can respect your opinion, but can you be a little more specific about what you mean by saying they screwed the pooch?
Again, maybe some specifics? Dr Ioannidis? Why? Because he published a flawed study that lines up with your belief?
I'd be interested to know more about this. How long would it take to weaken your immune system? Are you talking about being locked inside or does that include walking around outside?
I'm not for fearmongoring. I am for understanding what it is, and erring on the side of caution.
We are going to lose more than 100k lives due to this, while shutting down. Hopefully your company is also modeling out how many people would have died had we not shut down.
Got an invitation to a conference call that one of the major banks was providing their view on Main Street Economy, Real Estate, and the Healthcare M&A Landscape. The big takeaway was that major cities that have been effected by COVID (most notably NYC) will take years to recover from this pandemic; much, much longer than 9/11 and the financial crisis. No surprise, but they expect commercial and residential real estate in effected cities to plummet. Storefront retail in cities will probably not come back, and mall closings will accelerate even faster. They are already seeing a residential city flight out of NYC and others. Fulfillment will continue to expand (ecommerce) but the Amazon's, and other fulfillment models will supplement their large million sq. ft. DC's with smaller centers in major cities as they will see this as an opportunity to control the last mile of the delivery. Finally, hospital M&A will be heavy in the next 12-36 months, once large systems can get back on track and recoup the losses during this crisis through volume or subsidy.
