What’s “controlling well enough”? How many deaths are acceptable to you without mandatory testing?
Georgia opening up
- Thread starter NYShoreGuy
- Start date
Controlling well enough to me means that we don’t have to do this all over again. It means our models show the r0 value should drop to a level low enough where we are not seeing outbreaks again to the point where our healthcare system is again at risk.
what does that look like as far as the number of deaths? I agree with 09 that if we have reached a conclusion that we have a plan in place that will keep deaths from the virus below 100k, then coming out of this makes sense.
Thanks. The value of mandatory testing enables businesses and lifestyles to get back to normal. If everyone in a company is tested it enables a business to return to a normal work environment. If everyone is tested it makes getting on a plane, train or bus safer and enable those businesses to return to pre-Covid volumes and full employment.
Yet again, twisting words. I'm talking in ranges, not exact dates. My general range is a week ahead of yours.
Exactly. And think of the # of tests needed just to do that one time, let alone the repeated testing you would really need to do to ensure those same people haven't picked it up since the previous test.
Although I do think if you're tested one time and then are living in a responsible way - basically just work and groceries - that first test is likely good for a while, but what company can assure that of all of its employees?
Eventually we have to take some risk. You cannot do this for a lot longer. Rooting for big pharma right now.
It's also why I think the NFL will have a season. Maybe without fans, but something. They play one game per week and you can test them all.
Question for hall85/shu09 do you really see jersey shore boardwalks food establishments and other businesses being even at 50 percent by mid summer? My take any multigenerational family that was spared as this point is not willing to take a risk that can result in contraction to a young child or grandparent...i really see the shore communities, seasonal vendors and restaurants struggling
I don't know, I can't speak for other people. I know personally, I'd have no problem going there even though I'm not a big shore person to begin with.
Will you be guarded about it in any way though, cloth covering of nose and mouth area amongst other pedestrians?
But how do you know and assure that you asymptomatically wont pass along to others?
I'm pretty sure I've already had it. I'm also not a fan of guilting people into thinking they might have it and be passing it on.
Personal choice is going to vary greatly. For any area or event, I don't see things getting back to 100% by the summer. There is a segment of the population that is going to be more cautious and opt out.
For me personally, I will more likely engage in the activities and things I did before the pandemic hit and if masks are optional, I will choose not to wear. If there is a home/physician office antibody rapids test available soon, I'll do that voluntarily to know whether I had it or not. If I did, I would donate my plasma so that it can be used to treat a patient now or in the future.
By the summer, we will also see some treatments that out of clinical trials and available as well. I would treat this as any other risk we take in our daily lives; flu, auto accidents, accidents, para-sailing, etc.
All true. But your perspective would be different if it was your mother.
Possibly, but I also know I have no control over that. She will pass one day, as will all of us.
Oh, I definitely see the value. I would love if we could. I just don't think we can get there legally.
Very true. In one setting I work in, contact tracing has been hampered by people who tested (+) responding to callers with "none of your business." We live in a much different, much more selfish society than people in the post-Depression and post-WWII worlds did. I would love nothing more than to get out and return to "normal," but there is a very real threat of a second surge if we do not re-open correctly. I have elderly parents and young children, and am trying to balance my concern for them with those of the unemployed/small business owners.
Ok but its a false premise to presume if you acquired it once you can't get it again...also this is the exact issue murphy is gonna be cautioned about unless every last documented and undocumented resident gets tested
I know, immunity isn't proven. But again, I'm not going to live my life in fear of this thing.
The 2nd week of may starts on May 10th and the 2nd on May 17th.
That is what I was referring to. Not sure how that is twisting anything or why you feel the need to keep arguing. I even said previously that your range was reasonable and thought I was agreeing with you wen I posted 2nd or 3rd week.
Yeah, no sh*t, Descartes. But if you told me I could have my mom for another week or another decade, I'd choose the latter.
Yup...This is why we have to accept higher casualties than other authoritarian (China) countries or compliant cultures (South Korea). We are a more litigious society that will not comply without questioning to government demands.
What if you cross the international date line during this time period?
And let's not assume people who have had or have the virus are all going to be so forthcoming either. Sadly, I think it's become a bit like the Scarlet Letter in some places thanks to panic. For that reason people may not want to be tested by their employer for fear of handling.
I am closer to the lines of HALL85 and shu09 about going out and living life, but I likely draw the line a bit differently, needing to see scaled treatment (not waiting for a vaccine) to fully restore 100% with confidence. Until then I don't feel a need for myself or family to hop back into 100% normal life and throw caution to the wind by sitting in restaurants, theaters, sporting events, on trains into NYC and so forth with the general public just yet, despite how much we usually do those things. That's all recreational. Especially in the NJ/NY area.
But getting together in smaller groups at houses with friends and family would be nice, going back into the office, and so forth.
I am closer to the lines of HALL85 and shu09 about going out and living life, but I likely draw the line a bit differently, needing to see scaled treatment (not waiting for a vaccine) to fully restore 100% with confidence. Until then I don't feel a need for myself or family to hop back into 100% normal life and throw caution to the wind by sitting in restaurants, theaters, sporting events, on trains into NYC and so forth with the general public just yet, despite how much we usually do those things. That's all recreational. Especially in the NJ/NY area.
But getting together in smaller groups at houses with friends and family would be nice, going back into the office, and so forth.
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My question is how does NYC re-open up? For starters how many NYers get to work via penn station? How many people want to share the subways? How many people work there from NJ and get there via NJ transit or the Path? I take a train to NYC occassionally and it's standing room only by the time you get to Newark Broad Street. I agree with @shu09 on getting the country back going, but how is a question I'm 100% clueless on. Everyone driving to the city would be a nightmare from the perspective of traffic on the bridges and parking. More trains? Open it up is ideal.....How is very difficult. Also how many lawyers will be lining up to represent employees who don't feel safe going back to work. This will be ugly.
Great points and I have no idea. Until you can open up 100% it's going to have to be a carefully scaled program... Which even if executed well (of which I have zero confidence in with that Mayor) will be a nightmare.
um the mask isnt to protect you as much as it is to protect others.
Just so you know....
Sweden's unusual approach seems to be paying off so far
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ersial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ersial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective
I'm aware. I don't need to be lectured to by an elitist like you. I also don't have the virus, so I'm not spreading anything. We need to stop guilting people into believing they are.
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
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Good article about a different method. Thanks. Seems like the Swedes have a good culture of personal responsibility.
The data out of Sweden is not promising at all right now.
They are up to 2k deaths (70% increase in the last week) which is significantly higher than neighboring countries where the virus appears to have started at the same time but the other countries placed more restrictions. They are also not performing as many tests per million as their neighboring countries. The number of cases there is likely to be severely under reported based on the number of deaths so far.
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
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Just found the comment about losing a parent very strange and devoid of emotion. My wife has lost both her parents, and I can tell nothing in the world will ever replace the hole that will forever be in her heart. I initially thought all the cancellations were bullshit, and for my own selfish reasons I was very angry the tournament was canceled, now I am not so sure. I may not be worried about the virus for myself, but I sure do stay up at night thinking about my parents and if this chinese virus will take them away. Now magnify that to thousands of people who have lost loved ones, plus suffered unprecedented economic losses and it's tough to figure out an approach to move forward to balances these needs.
I personally think we need to open it back up because you cannot have 22 million people out of work, but I would require any companies that have the ability to telecommute to do so for the indefinite future, but that still harms any business that rely on those other businesses. I believe those without a pre-existing condition should maintain the social distancing, while being made whole financially, until we are sure lives will not continue to be lost at an alarming rate.
This goes back to what defines success. Sweden will likely have more fatalities, but they didn't shut their economy down and haven't over-taxed their healthcare system. They have opted to go with a public messaging campaign versus shutting down the economy and being more prescriptive. Time will tell if their healthcare system can flex without creating other issues.
These decisions are not black and white and just based on fatalities. We don't shut the economy down each year with the flu even though it kills 60-70K. We live with it and have a system in place to absorb the sick within our current healthcare capacity.
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