Yes. Bottom line, we are shut down because they thought it might overwhelm the healthcare system. Not because it will kill a lot of folks. Viruses will run their course. We can treat those who get it if we have a functioning healthcare system, which we do.
Georgia opening up
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Yes. Bottom line, we are shut down because they thought it might overwhelm the healthcare system. Not because it will kill a lot of folks. Viruses will run their course. We can treat those who get it if we have a functioning healthcare system, which we do.
I am a big believer in a free and independent media. The more data points we have, the more informed we become. You could have chosen this article from Fox News that was published around the same time.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/sweden-coronavirus-deaths-rise-guidelines
My point isn't to play a game of who finds the best web article - it's to point out that reasonable minds can reach different conclusions based on similar data. I have no idea if Sweden's plan will work or not work and either way, I am not sure exactly how the lessons from Sweden can be applied here.
I try not to find an article to support my position and then stop looking. It's important to see all sides if possible.
You're range estimate is way too high for the flu. More than double what we experience in a normal year.
We have gone over 60k once in the last 10 years.
but to be clear, we didn't shut down because Covid would hit 60k. We should down so Covid wouldn't be hundreds of thousands into the millions. We shut down so it would be double that of a normal flu season.
The risk to Sweden is that not shutting down early means their system will be overloaded in a few weeks and then they end up having to go through a lockdown anyway.
I disagree. I believe we shut it down because of the concern that the healthcare system would not be able to flex to meet a swell of admissions. If you blow through the capacity, then you have big problems. We are also not a culture that would have accepted moving patients all over the country to where there was capacity, however looking back, that should be factored in to future plans.
I may not have worded my earlier response accurately. We have had 60-70k fatalities in a flu season and didn't shut the economy down in those years.
I don't think we can draw any conclusions yet. They may also be a much healthier country. Could be apples and oranges.
It's also inherently difficult to compare more homogeneous populations like Sweden to the behemoth of the United States (although Sweden has been rapidly changing). Similar to how Bernie Sanders constantly pointed to those models for healthcare.
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Does Sweden have the obesity problem that the United States does, particularly the South? I have heard from a doctor friend that Covid is impacting obese people much worse than someone with a healthy weight.
We agree on that, just phrasing it different ways. The healthcare system overload would increase the number of fatalities.
We wouldn't have shut down the economy if Covid would have ended with 60-70k dead.
We are only got to be close to those numbers because of the actions we took.
We'll never know, but there are likely steps we could have taken to get to the same number.
Maybe, I'm just thankful that we we did seems to have been relatively effective.
In some parts of the response, yes.
Like I said previously, the virus gets here and spreads under any president... but at certain times we do need a little leadership from the president. You used to look for that as well.
I was not critical of Trump early on. I became critical of him when he stared gaslighting on the topic and blaming everyone around him.
He should have been in front of this with warnings to take it seriously. He should have been consistent in his messaging. He should have been running at the issue instead of running away from taking any potential blame.
Trolls gonna troll. You could not care less whether 6,000 people die or 6 million people die, but well done by you using verbal jujitsu to try and make Merge make some sort of positive comment regarding the President.
I’m not excusing Trump for his messaging. He clearly is also using the daily press briefings as a substitute for his campaign rallies that he obviously can’t do right now. And I agree words matter.
it’s a delicate balance to manage our healthcare capacity (which has been done), minimize fatalities (which also looks also have been accomplished) while maintaining an economic framework (to be determined but the price tag keeps going up and we won’t know for a while).
He does get credit for putting a team together that has accomplished the first two IMO.
Yes on #1. The administration helped capacity.
No on #2. I don't think Trump directly worked to minimize fatalities, and I would argue the number of deaths would have been less had he expressed caution. When this is over and we can look back on what went right and what went wrong, there is little doubt in my mind that we will find Trump tried to manage his political risk over the potential risk of the virus.
On #3 - incomplete. As I said previously, the scale of the economic toll here is massive. We will need a massive response and frankly very few politicians understand this. If we react when we know what the toll is, it's already too late. Need to get in front of it.
No on #2. I don't think Trump directly worked to minimize fatalities, and I would argue the number of deaths would have been less had he expressed caution. When this is over and we can look back on what went right and what went wrong, there is little doubt in my mind that we will find Trump tried to manage his political risk over the potential risk of the virus.
On #3 - incomplete. As I said previously, the scale of the economic toll here is massive. We will need a massive response and frankly very few politicians understand this. If we react when we know what the toll is, it's already too late. Need to get in front of it.
I don't know 85 personally, but I think that's a vile accusation to level at someone, and having some insight into his philosophy from his posts here, I doubt that is remotely true.
#2 is going to be our opinions so hard to prove. Half of the fatalities are in the NY/NJ/CT metro area...pretty much a population that not only doesn't listen to Trump, but does the opposite of anything he says. His words change on a daily basis. I just don't see the equivalency of his words relating to any materiality of fatalities.
I do know him personally.
You are correct. Not remotely true. IMO, he exercises a great deal of restraint.
I value feedback, especially negative feedback. I will consider what you have said.
So you’re aware. So you’re statement basically says “I am not afraid of getting out so I can do what I want to do and won’t wear a mask”
even though you know a) you can get it at any time and b) without a mask you are then a walking infection machine. But... you don’t care.
And in an elitist.
Hmm.
it’s hard to interpret what people really mean through text, but that is what bothered me about when he said he would be in favor of a lockdown with an Ebola outbreak.
Ebola is far worse of a virus... if you get it, but This virus is significantly more easily spread.
Left to run their course with no intervention, Covid likely kills way more people. But... if a relatively health 30 something got Covid, they would most likely be fine. If they got Ebola though, there is a good chance they would not.
Like I said, it is hard to pick a lot over text but It’s hard not to interpret that as.. I’ll be fine, oh well for everyone else vs. this might impact me, so I support a lockdown.
Correct, I'm not afraid of something that kills 1-2% of the people who contract it. You shouldn't be either. It is also increasingly looking like the death rate is far lower as the number of cases is probably far higher than the number of positive tests.
I'm pretty sure I already had it as I've mentioned to you before. So hopefully I am immune, although we don't know that for sure.
Not sure what Trump/Pence rallies have do with the topic of my opinions on the virus and my response to it, but I'll be voting for Joe Biden in November.
https://feinstein.northwell.edu/new...-patients-in-us-links-comorbidities-to-acuity
First look back on Northwell Health’s analytics of COVID patients. They’ve treated the largest number of patients.
Most patients had a least one comorbidity (diabetes, obesity, heart disease, etc). 88% on vents passed away. As we open up the economy those that are healthy have much less risk. Maybe that’s the message. If you have one or more comorbidities (especially diabetes), the recommendation to stay home longer.
First look back on Northwell Health’s analytics of COVID patients. They’ve treated the largest number of patients.
Most patients had a least one comorbidity (diabetes, obesity, heart disease, etc). 88% on vents passed away. As we open up the economy those that are healthy have much less risk. Maybe that’s the message. If you have one or more comorbidities (especially diabetes), the recommendation to stay home longer.
327,000,000 x .01 = 3,270,000
327,000,000 x .02 = 6,540,000
Deaths in 2018 (all causes) per CDC 2,813,503
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
327,000,000 x .02 = 6,540,000
Deaths in 2018 (all causes) per CDC 2,813,503
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
shu09 stated 1-2% of those who CONTRACT the disease, not 1-2% of the general population.
Is that the new common core math?
In terms of fatalities, COVID-19 has consistently been something that predominantly attacks those with these sorts of underlying issues and/or age. For example, look at the % of deaths in NJ's data that come from long term care faciltiies alone; I think around 40%.
The challenge is the U.S. has a HUGE number of people in those categories; we're talking millions upon millions and high %. Obesity alone is tremendous and cuts across all ages. Going to have to be a tailored approach.
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Bingo. The guy is all over the map. Just hustling.
Last week he's Tweeting about "liberating" states where protests got major news coverage, implying they should open immediately, then last night he's saying he disagrees with Georgia opening and that it's too soon. It's hard to follow. And after about the 3rd "briefing" - a total clown show campaign rally - I had to stop watching them.
Data should drive our decisions. The Northwell data is the largest lookback that we have so far. Instead of "opening up" by type of business, etc., we should also be educating and providing more immediate access to those that are healthy and are at an extremely low risk. Common sense. Make sure the elderly and sick are advised to shelter longer; if you run a business, maybe you bring back your healthy workers first, etc. Start getting things running and minimizing risk at the same time.
There's no need to be afraid, but you should at least have a modicum of concern and empathy for your fellow human beings. Yes, 1-2% fatality rate is low, relatively, but the absolute number of people who are infected is going to be much higher than your average flu, and thus, the ABSOLUTE number of people who die is, for most of us, eye-opening, and goes way beyond "have to die of something." AND it's going to include people in their 20s, 30s, and 40s.
...and it should be noted that I bothered to give it because I believe you are better than that, though you do like to poke a stick in a cage or two.
I'll bet the rate is lower than 1-2% by the time this is over and done with and we learn more about it. Of course it will include younger people. Younger people also die every day sadly from various causes.
Reports out of CA that many people have it who were undetected. Even you have been saying you think a lot more people have it than just the number of positive tests.
6 months out you've made your decision?
I have a few questions I want answered.
For years democrats have been pushing Russia as our #1 enemy. Why did they overlook China? Financial gains?
Why should I believe Biden's bringing back the manufacturing of PPE and medications to this country?
What's the real deal with Hunter?
Yeah, I do think we are under reported since the current mortality rate is 5.6% in the US. That seems too high from other data around the world.
S. Korea in my opinion offers the best estimate since they shut everything down and went for a large amount of testing right away.
Less than 2% of their tests have returned positive (20% for us) . There is a fair amount of confidence that they did better job identifying cases than anywhere else and enough time has passed where the number of new cases and the number of new deaths have been very low (close to zero), so the numbers are not likely to change much.
Their current mortality rate is 2.24%.
I haven't seen much data suggesting that it would drop much below 2%. There will be some variance based on age and health of the overall population, but I don't think the US is particularly young or healthy compared to the rest of the world.
