Jersey Shore Nightclub Closes for 2020 Summer
- Thread starter shufan1993
- Start date
He was making a point that it’s not transported through the air, and I was saying it is. I get that it’s droplets, I wasn’t going to get that technical. I know it doesn’t hang in the air for hours.
That wasn’t the point. It was all towards his comment about not wanting to wear a mask, should be his choice, doesn’t affect anyone but him. And I’m saying that’s not correct.
That’s all.
Think that’s enough on this subject as the Horse has been beaten to death
let’s hope the virus follows
This letter seems like its right from the onion
https://www.nj.com/opinion/2020/05/...html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true
https://www.nj.com/opinion/2020/05/...html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true
Agree on the second part. This is all about the greater good.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...ny-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all
“Christophe Fraser of the University of Oxford, who has studied superspreading in Ebola and HIV. Their mode of transmission may be one factor. SARS-CoV-2 appears to transmit mostly through droplets, but it does occasionally spread through finer aerosols that can stay suspended in the air, enabling one person to infect many. Most published large transmission clusters “seem to implicate aerosol transmission,” Fraser says.”
“Christophe Fraser of the University of Oxford, who has studied superspreading in Ebola and HIV. Their mode of transmission may be one factor. SARS-CoV-2 appears to transmit mostly through droplets, but it does occasionally spread through finer aerosols that can stay suspended in the air, enabling one person to infect many. Most published large transmission clusters “seem to implicate aerosol transmission,” Fraser says.”
is there a link to the report he is talking about?
Drawing a conclusion the the lockdown was somehow causing a higher r0 doesn’t make much sense at all, So I’m curious how they are coming to that and how they are coming up with a factor for measurement lag.
That other site you posted a while back is estimating a small increase in r0 nationally as we are starting to open back up and projects the curve of the number of cases to start to increase through June but at a much more manageable level than what was happening in March.
https://covid19-projections.com/us
I agree it is time to open though.
I'm less concerned about the number of cases. I don't think we have a great understanding of how many people have actually had it. Seeing the number of cases or those with antibodies go up is a good thing as long as hospitalizations and deaths are not increasing as well.
Hospitalizations are on the decline, but it is still too early to know what the impact of opening bask up really is. Georgia and Florida for example have both seen an increase in new hospitalizations per day recently. Both started to peak at the end of April, started to decline in early May and have been on the rise again. Numbers are fairly low so still quite manageable, but it's too early to tell if that is the result of an increased spread.
I could be wrong and I most likely am but does it matter who had it as long as they didn’t die ? I get it shows how bad it was etc but if we look at it like any other infection do we count how many people had the flue each year( we might )?
The increase in the number of cases could be more do do with us getting better at testing than the virus spreading, so I just mean that it's not necessarily a bad thing when the number goes up and hospitalizations would be a better representation of the trend.
Beyond knowing how deadly the virus is, it would also be good to understand if we are getting close to herd immunity where it does not spread as rapidly because people are immune. From what I understand so far, it is likely that those who were infected would at least have short term immunity to getting reinfected.
A very very sad day in America when we will hit 100,000 deaths. Thousands of stories destroyed by this virus. Crazy that people on this board don't take this virus serious enough.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/24/us/us-coronavirus-deaths-100000.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/24/us/us-coronavirus-deaths-100000.html
Just terrible what is happening because of this shutdown choice:
https://abc7news.com/suicide-covid-19-coronavirus-rates-during-pandemic-death-by/6201962/
https://abc7news.com/suicide-covid-19-coronavirus-rates-during-pandemic-death-by/6201962/
Hate to give NJ.com clicks, but this is a decent take on the situation.
https://www.nj.com/opinion/2020/05/...-murphys-head-but-not-his-brain-mulshine.html
https://www.nj.com/opinion/2020/05/...-murphys-head-but-not-his-brain-mulshine.html
What would suicide rates look like without the shut down from your view?
Hard to know the “why” at this point, but had we not shut down, we would still be seeing a lot of death, causing depression and anxiety and we would still be seeing a downturn of our economy.
if there is an increase in suicide rates, it’s because of the pandemic, not the choice to shut down.
Where we have failed is our government has not tried to provide some economic certainty. A $1,200 check doesn’t cut it. It should have been that much per month on top of whatever unemployment people are getting, until 3-6 months after the lockdowns end.
That would have had a meaningful impact on mental health over the last couple months and going forward.
Agree with some of that. Murphy’s metrics should have been more quantifiable and he should have provided some kind of estimates on the dates of reopening.
People in NJ are getting out now. The weather is nice, stores are crowded. Need to allow all businesses to open back up.
I dont believe there is a perfect answer to how long or how much financial support those unemployed and directly afflicted by the suspension of employment should be getting. There are many now getting more combined by state and the extra 600 than what they were typically earning on a weekly basis. There are certain industries that are not juat gonna be back to how it was even after a majority flattening or vaccine comes about. There is gonna be a lot of career changes forced upon people because of this. While I do agree government should be a relief valve in times like this, congress rushed to cobble together a relief package for immediacy of putting a bandaid on a wound that needed stitches.
The 600 was determined as avg american weekly gross. There is still 8 weeks of that remaining or so before it expires July 31.
Also, I am sure there are companies out there that could have kept some on payroll but decided to furlough when they knew government could pay them more.
Yeah, I am sure people and companies will all take advantage of whatever the can take advantage of... but in moment like this which has the potential to crush us, some people getting away with something is the least of my concerns.
Beyond helping those who are losing jobs, we need to find a way to keep consumer confidence up and people putting money back into the economy.
Hard to project there would be “a lot of death” without shutting down businesses. We are 9th in the world in deaths/million and even if we had the highest (Belgium) it would project to about 260k, not “millions”.
Taking the majority of the population out of their routine and taking away their purpose is a major risk factor for declining mental health (depression and suicide).
More and more data shows we should be protecting nursing home patients and those with at-risk comorbitities. Hard to tell what the impact would have been but not out of the realm that we would be more like 50k without shutting down the economy.
Not good. Not good at all. Thanks to actions from people in Georgia and Florida this weekend the virus will rebound in these states. Second peak is already occurring in Arkansas. We are still very far out of the woods. Some people especially on this board do not understand this yet.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/25/health/us-coronavirus-memorial-day/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/25/health/us-coronavirus-memorial-day/index.html
No it’s not, look at the numbers, one day showed a spike, there are so few cases in Arkansas there were never any peaks.
The people still pushing for lockdowns will make anything up. They are getting desperate.
No you're clearly wrong. The governor of Arkansas clearly said "second peak". Is the governor wrong?
https://nypost.com/2020/05/24/swim-party-contributes-to-second-peak-in-arkansas-coronavirus/
I am a man of my word. I said last Sunday give Georgia two weeks. Let's see the numbers next Sunday. It is kind of fishy what Georgia has been doing with their numbers though. We will see what this week brings.
Wrong, look at the actual numbers, not an article without any substance to it. No mention of when/where this party was, how many infected specifically from this party, etc.
I don't agree with your estimate of deaths but that is beside the point. The point is that even if we had perfect hindsight and just went the Sweden route or something, our economy is still hurting and people are still afraid of a virus that is killing hundreds of thousands of people. Even without a shut down, supply chains start to shut down, people stop going out as much, consumer confidence drops etc. An increase in suicides is the result of a global pandemic, not our decision to shut down or not.
We would have hit an economic crisis with or without the shutdown and as with any economic crisis. people lose jobs and suicide rates start to increase.
As I said initially, the government should have stepped up and started to provide some economic certainty in this unprecedented time.
Totally disagree on your suicide assumptions. Businesses (small and large) are being crushed by the pandemic. Sad to see multi-generational businesses closing for good. You want to see depression and suicide...watch something destroyed in weeks that it took a family decades to build. I see more people angry versus afraid. It’s magnifying the incompetence in leadership of our government...federal and state. People see that and we are only seeing the beginning of the frustration.
I also feel bad for our kids as they will bear the financial burden of these decisions.
If only people had taken this more seriously back in March instead of going to cooking classes in NYC (sure, why not?) things may have turned out much differently.
I agree, it’s a horrible situation... but it still happens shutdown or no shutdown.
We can certainly look back and think of things that we could have done better, but let’s not pretend path A hurts the economy and path B keeps our economy moving. Even Sweden’s economy is taking a hit and is projecting a larger 2020 economic contraction than the US.
There are no absolutes, but when you take extreme actions that effect everybody, rather than more surgical approaches, the decimation is going to be much greater. Let's see where the data takes us, but at this point, it doesn't appear that A), the shut downs didn't need to be as draconian and B), that we should have done more up front on containment (geography and demographics).
Georgia has been open for 4 weeks now, I thought that was the new goalpost? Now you want to move it yet again?
4 weeks after the first covid case in Georgia, 100 people had died.
4 weeks after that and it was over 1,000.
It takes time to understand what is happening. 7 day average of new hospitalizations in Georgia was starting to decrease after a peak in early May, and started to increase again a little over a week ago. I'm not going to point to an increase as evidence you are wrong because I have no idea where that trend line is going yet. None of us do. May be going back up, it may be short term and will start to decline again.
I am on the side of reopening, but it will take time to understand the impact.
The shutdown was initiated to ensure that hospital capacity was not overwhelmed. It never happened (which is a good thing) and the day-to-day ups and downs in Georgia have no material impact on their capacity.
Exactly. The goal is not to prevent anyone and everyone from getting sick. That is impossible. The goal is to not overwhelm hospitals when they are needed to care for those who are sick.
Increasingly I feel politicians and some citizens are looking to prevent ALL illness as part of some utopian fantasy. It's not possible.
Right, we're on the same page there but the problem is that we can't see if those day to day ups and downs become day to day ups and ups to the point where it becomes a problem.
Like I said, I am in favor of opening. I understand that will mean increased cases and increased hospitalizations.
I don't expect capacity to become a problem in Georgia, but I'm not going to set an arbitrary timeline to understand the trend especially in the upward side where you can't really understand if there are "super spreading" events happening or not.
Was referring to a 7 day average trend line to smooth outliers from day to day activity.
I am a data guy and want to understand it before I make conclusions.
