Moderna vaccine at 95 percent effective rate

[shufan1993]

Also the latest from Dr. Sanjay Gupta- "This past week has been so bad that, according to one calculation from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, Covid-19 was the leading cause of death in the United States, beating out coronary heart disease. "

Not good, not good at all.

If the United States were my patient: Science cannot rescue us from ourselves | CNN

CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta writes, "Our human spirit has made us innovative, creative, resourceful and tenacious enough to see this dream of a vaccine bear fruit. But it's our human behavior and biological reflexes that will dictate how deep our wounds ultimately go. No...

www.cnn.com

 

[shufan1993]

Great article showing vaccines will not be the end all and be all. And we even with a vaccine per the doctor that this wrote this article. We won't see a change in live until a year after the vaccines are distributed to the general public. So @cernjSHU summer 2021 will probably still look like summer 2020. As you stated previously "everything will be open" in summer 2021. That will just not be the case.

Opinion | How Many Might Die Even With a COVID Vaccine?

Some grim back-of-the-envelope math

www.medpagetoday.com

 

[shufan1993]

Dropping the latest here. In no way has this virus "Levelled off" @donnie_baseball @cernjSHU

N.J. reports record-high COVID-19 cases with 6,046 positive tests. 16 new deaths confirmed.

“These numbers speak for themselves,” Gov. Phil Murphy said in a tweet.

www.nj.com

 

[shufan1993]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/06/...-ptsd.html#click=[URL]https://t.co/rBYyqAQoBE

[/URL]

 

[shufan1993]

Nj.com is now preparing us for mask wearing after the coronavirus. People have to stop saying I am wrong about this. What I predicted months ago is starting to begin. Expect this narrative from the MSM in the coming months.

8 things we won’t have to do in N.J.’s 2nd coronavirus wave.

As we head inside for the winter, we're better prepared than we were in March, experts said.

www.nj.com

 

[donnie_baseball]

Hey, stupid. Rt is now down to 1.03, and has been dropping for weeks, as things levelled off. 6,000 cases in a day, with a declining Rt, suggests (with apologies to Trump) that more positive cases are a result of more testing (in this case, people trying to "clear" themselves for Thanksgiving.

 

[shufan1993]

Hey, stupid. Rt is now down to 1.03, and has been dropping for weeks, as things levelled off. 6,000 cases in a day, with a declining Rt, suggests (with apologies to Trump) that more positive cases are a result of more testing (in this case, people trying to "clear" themselves for Thanksgiving.

Hi @donnie_baseball. I hope you had a great weekend. Hospitalizations are continuing to go up. Hospitalizations are expected to peak around 5,000 around new years. I seriously disagree with your point that the virus is levelling of.

 

[Merge]

Hey, stupid. Rt is now down to 1.03, and has been dropping for weeks, as things levelled off. 6,000 cases in a day, with a declining Rt, suggests (with apologies to Trump) that more positive cases are a result of more testing (in this case, people trying to "clear" themselves for Thanksgiving.

Not quite accurate unfortunately. October 1st, about 3% of Covid tests came up positive in NJ. That has been steadily increasing since and is now over 10%. There were 523 people currently hospitalized and about 30 new Covid patients were admitted each day (7 day avg) which is now over 170 per day. There were less than 100 Covid cases in ICU and that is now over 600.

It has been getting worse in NJ steadily for 2 months.

 

[seton1996]

Not quite accurate unfortunately. October 1st, about 3% of Covid tests came up positive in NJ. That has been steadily increasing since and is now over 10%. There were 523 people currently hospitalized and about 30 new Covid patients were admitted each day (7 day avg) which is now over 170 per day. There were less than 100 Covid cases in ICU and that is now over 600.

It has been getting worse in NJ steadily for 2 months.

I think the true story for NJ is somewhere in between your 2 points..

Good:
RT rate been decreasing for weeks, getting close to 1.
Hospital totals have decreased several days over last 2 weeks, plus stays seem to be much shorter.
More people getting tested - so helps find people without symptons who are positive.

Bad:
7 day Hospital rates still too high
Positivity Rate is high

Hopefully some of the new restrictions, plus people being safer on their own helps flatten the curve. Seen a few things that indicated most models show getting worse in NJ, but this wave peaking in about 3 weeks at the end of December.

 

[shufan1993]

Not quite accurate unfortunately. October 1st, about 3% of Covid tests came up positive in NJ. That has been steadily increasing since and is now over 10%. There were 523 people currently hospitalized and about 30 new Covid patients were admitted each day (7 day avg) which is now over 170 per day. There were less than 100 Covid cases in ICU and that is now over 600.

It has been getting worse in NJ steadily for 2 months.

@Merge Thank you for the follow up.

@donnie_baseball Please see the above information. Thank you.

Also I kindly ask you to stop calling me names as I am bringing up valid points.

 

[shu09]

I think the true story for NJ is somewhere in between your 2 points..

Good:
RT rate been decreasing for weeks, getting close to 1.
Hospital totals have decreased several days over last 2 weeks, plus stays seem to be much shorter.
More people getting tested - so helps find people without symptons who are positive.

Bad:
7 day Hospital rates still too high
Positivity Rate is high

Hopefully some of the new restrictions, plus people being safer on their own helps flatten the curve. Seen a few things that indicated most models show getting worse in NJ, but this wave peaking in about 3 weeks at the end of December.

Seems the peaking has begun. Cases up and transmission rate down is a sign of that.

 

[shufan1993]

Everyone. Thank you for the responses. This has a been great discussion. Do you think there will be a "3rd wave" in the spring time frame? Or will we finally have some relief in the spring with a vaccine?

Please be respectful with responses. Don't need name calling.

 

[Merge]

I think the true story for NJ is somewhere in between your 2 points..

Good:
RT rate been decreasing for weeks, getting close to 1.
Hospital totals have decreased several days over last 2 weeks, plus stays seem to be much shorter.
More people getting tested - so helps find people without symptons who are positive.

Bad:
7 day Hospital rates still too high
Positivity Rate is high

Hopefully some of the new restrictions, plus people being safer on their own helps flatten the curve. Seen a few things that indicated most models show getting worse in NJ, but this wave peaking in about 3 weeks at the end of December.

Agreed.
I think the news starts to change behavior. People who were not taking it seriously 2 month ago may be taking it more seriously now because they see that hospitalizations are up.

Unfortunately December and January look like they will be a rough couple of months.

 

[HALL85]

Have heard Governor Wolf will shut down all indoor dining on Friday.

 

[shufan1993]

Have heard Governor Wolf will shut down all indoor dining on Friday.

Can't say I'm surprised. Everything will be shut down soon. We will continue to go in and out of lockdowns until at least 2023.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

Have heard Governor Wolf will shut down all indoor dining on Friday.

And per shufan1993 this will not be a precedent in not only PA but everywhere in US, indoor dining will no longer exist again

 

[SHUSA]

And per shufan1993 this will not be a precedent in not only PA but everywhere in US, indoor dining will no longer exist again

no longer exist again? lol.

 

[SHUSA]

doomsday preppers hide your eyes

Dr. Anthony Fauci expresses optimism that stadiums could be full again in 2021

Dr. Anthony Fauci, when asked whether NFL stadiums will be full by next season, said it's possible thanks to the coronavirus vaccine efforts.

www.usatoday.com

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.

www.webmd.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/03/bil...e-will-be-headed-back-to-normal-pandemic.html

Article expired

News on Japan, Business News, Opinion, Sports, Entertainment and More

www.japantimes.co.jp

Fauci: 'End is in sight' for pandemic, but Montanans need to keep up with mask and distancing guidelines

www.ktvq.com

COVID-19 Vaccine Expected To Arrive In TX The Week Of December 14th | 96.1 NOW

About 1.4 million Texans will ave access to the vaccine within two weeks.

961now.iheart.com

 

[shu09]

Have heard Governor Wolf will shut down all indoor dining on Friday.

Another stooge governor. Guess the virus doesn't operate between now and Friday.

 

[SHUSA]

Another stooge governor. Guess the virus doesn't operate between now and Friday.

unrelated, have you been trying to gonto restaurants more/takeout more since these restrictions have been in place?

 

[shufan1993]

And per shufan1993 this will not be a precedent in not only PA but everywhere in US, indoor dining will no longer exist again

@NYShoreGuy @SHUSA You put what I said way out of context. Not surprising from @NYShoreGuy.

Serious question: How many restaurants will actually be able to survive this? Especially if there are shut downs for years to come.

 

[shufan1993]

doomsday preppers hide your eyes

Dr. Anthony Fauci expresses optimism that stadiums could be full again in 2021

Dr. Anthony Fauci, when asked whether NFL stadiums will be full by next season, said it's possible thanks to the coronavirus vaccine efforts.

www.usatoday.com

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.

www.webmd.com

View embedded media

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/03/bil...e-will-be-headed-back-to-normal-pandemic.html

Article expired

News on Japan, Business News, Opinion, Sports, Entertainment and More

www.japantimes.co.jp

Fauci: 'End is in sight' for pandemic, but Montanans need to keep up with mask and distancing guidelines

www.ktvq.com

COVID-19 Vaccine Expected To Arrive In TX The Week Of December 14th | 96.1 NOW

About 1.4 million Texans will ave access to the vaccine within two weeks.

961now.iheart.com

The great Dr. Fauci has been wrong about a lot. If you remember correctly he said masks would not be necessary during his infamous March 60 minutes interview where he actually laughed about having to wear masks.

Also he did have an interview a couple months ago saying NJ would not have to worry about a second surge. So he was wrong on that too.

 

[shu09]

unrelated, have you been trying to gonto restaurants more/takeout more since these restrictions have been in place?

I have not changed my restaurant habits since this all started. I don't eat out much to begin with though.

 

[shufan1993]

Hello. Please note I was called an "idiot" and "fear mongering" for saying the Covid 19 pandemic is worse than the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918.

However scientists and experts that know more than us tend to agree with this statement. Dr. Birx has now said the Covid 19 pandemic is the worst event the US will ever face. It looks like I will be right again!

Birx: Pandemic Is Worst Event The U.S. Will Ever Face

"This is not just the worst public health event,” Dr. Deborah Birx said. This is the worst event that this country will face, not just from a public health side."

www.forbes.com

 

[shu09]

Dr. Birx is an idiot if she believes that. The Civil War, the Great Depression, the two world wars and 9/11 were all events far worse than a flu-like illness with a sky high survival rate.

Really insulting that she says this on Pearl Harbor Day, an event which propelled the US into the worst event/period in modern US history.

 

[HALL85]

FWIW, I was on a Zoom call with one of the areas large healthcare systems and their CMO and Infectious Disease leader. They pointed out that they expect us to reach 30% infection rate by May which made the magic number for vaccine administration at 40% to get to 70% herd immunity.

They bragged a little in that they were castigated by some other experts in the spring for limiting patients to ventilators as a last line of therapy, and have ended having one of the best survival rates of their patients. Great success with the monoclonal antibody treatment (EUA from Eli Lilly), treating patients at home before that would likely be hospitalized. Less than 6% ended up being hospitalized.

 

[Merge]

FWIW, I was on a Zoom call with one of the areas large healthcare systems and their CMO and Infectious Disease leader. They pointed out that they expect us to reach 30% infection rate by May which made the magic number for vaccine administration at 40% to get to 70% herd immunity.

Did they note where they believe the infection rate is currently?

They bragged a little in that they were castigated by some other experts in the spring for limiting patients to ventilators as a last line of therapy, and have ended having one of the best survival rates of their patients. Great success with the monoclonal antibody treatment (EUA from Eli Lilly), treating patients at home before that would likely be hospitalized. Less than 6% ended up being hospitalized.

Is that a PA system?
Watching the trends, the data from PA looks pretty bad right now. A positivity rate of over 30%, Almost 6k hospitalized, 1,200 in ICU and 700 on vents which are all high's for the state.

 

[knowknow456]

Did they note where they believe the infection rate is currently?



Is that a PA system?
Watching the trends, the data from PA looks pretty bad right now. A positivity rate of over 30%, Almost 6k hospitalized, 1,200 in ICU and 700 on vents which are all high's for the state.

You missed the point of the story. He was on a Zoom call.

 

[HALL85]

Did they note where they believe the infection rate is currently?



Is that a PA system?
Watching the trends, the data from PA looks pretty bad right now. A positivity rate of over 30%, Almost 6k hospitalized, 1,200 in ICU and 700 on vents which are all high's for the state.

They presented a series of hot spot maps and suggested that we are seeing an 8 week wave and that most of the midwest was in the middle of that right now (including much of PA). It was a PA system. Dashboard they shared showed that ICU's were well below capacity and that this wave should subside by mid-January.

In their view there was very little evidence that mitigation strategies deployed state by state have had any material difference on the infection rates. It's been more a matter of time and when the virus has reached the population.

All hospitals in the area (NJ/PA) continue to schedule elective surgeries and don't anticipate deviatating from that.

 

[SHUSA]

They presented a series of hot spot maps and suggested that we are seeing an 8 week wave and that most of the midwest was in the middle of that right now (including much of PA). It was a PA system. Dashboard they shared showed that ICU's were well below capacity and that this wave should subside by mid-January.

In their view there was very little evidence that mitigation strategies deployed state by state have had any material difference on the infection rates. It's been more a matter of time and when the virus has reached the population.

All hospitals in the area (NJ/PA) continue to schedule elective surgeries and don't anticipate deviatating from that.

thanks for the info. PA is weird. id hope that the current wave is through more of mid and west PA. the philly side went through a burst very early on. hoping the northeast wont be seeing as bad a spike as whats being reported today in america holistically.

 

[Merge]

They presented a series of hot spot maps and suggested that we are seeing an 8 week wave and that most of the midwest was in the middle of that right now (including much of PA). It was a PA system. Dashboard they shared showed that ICU's were well below capacity and that this wave should subside by mid-January.

What is their ICU capacity? Patients in the ICU is up 340% the last month from 353 to 1,191 and almost 3k have died in the last month. The positivity rate is particularly worrying for PA right now.
Can the system sustain daily Covid census increases of 4% every day?

 

[knowknow456]

What is their ICU capacity? Patients in the ICU is up 340% the last month from 353 to 1,191 and almost 3k have died in the last month. The positivity rate is particularly worrying for PA right now.
Can the system sustain daily Covid census increases of 4% every day?

Let's brag about less than 6% being hospitalized. Did you know in Ohio they too only had 6% hospitalized and they didn't even get a shout on the Zoom call.

Key Metrics on Cases

coronavirus.ohio.gov

We're gonna zoomzoomzoomazoom.

 

[HALL85]

What is their ICU capacity? Patients in the ICU is up 340% the last month from 353 to 1,191 and almost 3k have died in the last month. The positivity rate is particularly worrying for PA right now.
Can the system sustain daily Covid census increases of 4% every day?

* Total ICU Beds 233
* Total Occupied ICU Beds: 117
* Total COVID ICU Cases: 24

They have 238 COVID cases in the hospital system. Remember, LOS is significantly less than in the spring (3-4 days). They are turning these patients pretty quickly.

 

[Section112]

Good info 85 thanks for sharing. I hope the lower trend continues.

My sister runs a home health care agency that is sponsored by a Philly area hospital. She has had the toughest three weeks ever losing the services of many of her home health care aides because of Covid or being exposed to Covid and is working around the clock every day of the week to care for the elderly infirmed in their homes and in small care homes etc. She said about a week ago that hospitals in Philly were close to capacity at the time because she had to send a patient and the first three hospitals were not accepting that patient. Her biggest problem is people/relatives not following the rules. Families will come in and visit their elderly Mom or Dad or grandparent without a mask or pile into their small apt or house for birthdays etc. Her aides, who do great work for little pay continue to get exposed by patient's families who don't follow the rules repeatedly. In multiple cases, she has had to pull her aides to keep them from getting infected at the families dismay and protest. At one point about two weeks ago she had 40+ aides out or quarantined and that affected close to 100 patients in their care. Difficult situation all around but she said it seems to be getting a touch better this week - but it is bad in the Philly area right now. Her stories are incredible. She has had aides bring home the virus and elderly folks living in the same home have gotten it and died. Many of these aides are poor and work multiple jobs and live in multi-generational homes/apartments. She has a group of elderly nuns who have traveled the world and survived other pandemics and plagues that all like to sit in one room together without masks. Two died last year and another recently died and she might have to pull her aides because they won't listen. 101 year old man with a family that won't care for him that she has taken care of personally until she could get him into a safe home. On and on. She is so excited about the vaccine but is worried many of her aides won't agree to get it.

My sister's hospital system is supporting her with full PPE but have balked on more rigorous testing of her aides due to the cost and availability of tests and how fast results can be received. And frankly because if they test more she thinks the powers that be are worried they won't have enough aides to do the job but no one has said those words out loud. I feel bad for her but she is doing her best to care for about 400+ infirmed patients and trying to keep her aides safe at the same time. Tough spot but she continues to work through it.

Her aides cared for my Mom for 7 years and these folks are salt of the earth and incredible people.

 

[jcalz88]

Covid is real and serious, just tested positive.

Currently isolating as I have a very High Temp of 102. PulseOx is solid at 99.

Because I got it they have now have to shut down my my fiance's animal shelter for the next 14 days.

If anyone can drop a donation to them it would go such a long way as they had to furlough over 20 employees!

Plainfield Area Humane Society

 

[HALL85]

Good info 85 thanks for sharing. I hope the lower trend continues.

My sister runs a home health care agency that is sponsored by a Philly area hospital. She has had the toughest three weeks ever losing the services of many of her home health care aides because of Covid or being exposed to Covid and is working around the clock every day of the week to care for the elderly infirmed in their homes and in small care homes etc. She said about a week ago that hospitals in Philly were close to capacity at the time because she had to send a patient and the first three hospitals were not accepting that patient. Her biggest problem is people/relatives not following the rules. Families will come in and visit their elderly Mom or Dad or grandparent without a mask or pile into their small apt or house for birthdays etc. Her aides, who do great work for little pay continue to get exposed by patient's families who don't follow the rules repeatedly. In multiple cases, she has had to pull her aides to keep them from getting infected at the families dismay and protest. At one point about two weeks ago she had 40+ aides out or quarantined and that affected close to 100 patients in their care. Difficult situation all around but she said it seems to be getting a touch better this week - but it is bad in the Philly area right now. Her stories are incredible. She has had aides bring home the virus and elderly folks living in the same home have gotten it and died. Many of these aides are poor and work multiple jobs and live in multi-generational homes/apartments. She has a group of elderly nuns who have traveled the world and survived other pandemics and plagues that all like to sit in one room together without masks. Two died last year and another recently died and she might have to pull her aides because they won't listen. 101 year old man with a family that won't care for him that she has taken care of personally until she could get him into a safe home. On and on. She is so excited about the vaccine but is worried many of her aides won't agree to get it.

My sister's hospital system is supporting her with full PPE but have balked on more rigorous testing of her aides due to the cost and availability of tests and how fast results can be received. And frankly because if they test more she thinks the powers that be are worried they won't have enough aides to do the job but no one has said those words out loud. I feel bad for her but she is doing her best to care for about 400+ infirmed patients and trying to keep her aides safe at the same time. Tough spot but she continues to work through it.

Her aides cared for my Mom for 7 years and these folks are salt of the earth and incredible people.

First of all, your sister is a saint. Managing home health care workers and ensuring their safety is virtually impossible.

I haven’t seen the complete priority list for Pennsylvania but I have to think they are going to be one of the first groups eligible to receive the vaccine.

unfortunately, there is no elegant way to protect the elderly. Much of it falls on their shoulders.Heartbreaking.

 

[Merge]

* Total ICU Beds 233
* Total Occupied ICU Beds: 117
* Total COVID ICU Cases: 24

They have 238 COVID cases in the hospital system. Remember, LOS is significantly less than in the spring (3-4 days). They are turning these patients pretty quickly.

Not sure how accurate this is for the state.

U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker

Covid Act Now has real-time tracking of your community's COVID risk level. Explore how your community is doing.

covidactnow.org

Pennsylvania has about 4,156 ICU beds. Based on best available data, we estimate that 57% (2,352) are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. Of the 1,804 ICU beds remaining, 1,191 are needed by COVID cases, or 66% of available beds. This suggests hospitals may not be well positioned to absorb a wave of new COVID infections without substantial surge capacity. Caution is warranted.

Hopefully the peak is close because the upward trend is unsustainable to the state.

 

[Merge]

Covid is real and serious, just tested positive.

Currently isolating as I have a very High Temp of 102. PulseOx is solid at 99.

Because I got it they have now have to shut down my my fiance's animal shelter for the next 14 days.

If anyone can drop a donation to them it would go such a long way as they had to furlough over 20 employees!

Plainfield Area Humane Society

Sorry to hear that man. Hope it's not too bad for you!

 

[SHUSA]

Covid is real and serious, just tested positive.

Currently isolating as I have a very High Temp of 102. PulseOx is solid at 99.

Because I got it they have now have to shut down my my fiance's animal shelter for the next 14 days.

If anyone can drop a donation to them it would go such a long way as they had to furlough over 20 employees!

Plainfield Area Humane Society

were almost fully at my willard gave jcalz covid on the golf course joke...

102 is higher than my any of my direct contacts, (who are your age and ended up fine). good on your fiance for being honest with the shelter. any idea how you got it?

 

[shufan1993]

Grim Dr. Osterholm warning. Looks like we are far out of the woods, folks