Moving to Phase II

[Merge]

He played to his base yesterday. He called out the media for ripping his first moves as racist and all the experts saying go out and enjoy yourself. People are tired of hearing he didn’t do enough early on and he got it wrong from people who would have continued to let people from China in the country for another month.

Not every criticism of Trump is/was fair. There is a lot that is unknown when something fairly unprecedented happens.
Trump is not to blame for all of it, and I think any president would have had missteps dealing with this.

Where Trump is unique is that he is not capable of saying he was wrong about something. A lot of people had this wrong early on, but as the data suggested they need to change their opinions, they did. Trump couldn't which is why as experts were stating to pivot, Trump kept doubling down and now he thinks he can campaign on the fact that other people being wrong too to make himself look better? Keep rating his performance as a 10. Keep saying he knows better than anyone else etc...

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

Not every criticism of Trump is/was fair. There is a lot that is unknown when something fairly unprecedented happens.
Trump is not to blame for all of it, and I think any president would have had missteps dealing with this.

Where Trump is unique is that he is not capable of saying he was wrong about something. A lot of people had this wrong early on, but as the data suggested they need to change their opinions, they did. Trump couldn't which is why as experts were stating to pivot, Trump kept doubling down and now he thinks he can campaign on the fact that other people being wrong too to make himself look better? Keep rating his performance as a 10. Keep saying he knows better than anyone else etc...

He may be unique as a president unwilling to say he’s wrong. I haven’t seen Biden say he was wrong. I haven’t heard DiBlasio take any blame for what’s going on in NYC. I haven’t heard any of the news networks say they got it wrong. So it’s actually common amongst all parties who are providing us information.

 

[shu09]

https://www.foxnews.com/media/judge...f-civil-liberties-during-coronavirus-pandemic

This is what some of us here are concerned about. Specifically, will we get our liberties back after this is over? I have my doubts.

Abuse of power, plain and simple.

 

[Merge]

https://www.foxnews.com/media/judge...f-civil-liberties-during-coronavirus-pandemic

This is what some of us here are concerned about. Specifically, will we get our liberties back after this is over? I have my doubts.

Abuse of power, plain and simple.

When I agree that the risks have been properly mitigated (not removed, just mitigated to a reasonable level) and our civil liberties are not restored, I will stand with you to protest.

 

[HALL85]

Scary is how I would describe it. 9 months in jail for not wearing a mask? Insanity, total authoritarianism.

Curtailing the civil liberties of everyone to save a few is not worth it in my view.

Can you imagine if Trump (or any President) tried to institute these kind of measures? It's nice to try to take the high road and make the claim all lives are precious, but the question I would ask them is, would you be willing to submit to these tactics if you really feel that?

I can only imagine how difficult some of these decisions might be. Once we get through this, it's critical that we do a post-mortem to learn from the data, what could have been done differently (and what would the cost of doing that had been - i.e, effect on the economy, building excess bed capacity, stockpiles, etc.).

The bigger question is holding China accountable. Whether it emanated from a wet market or lab, this virus will kill tens of thousands, taken a toll on many more and crippled our economy. That can't go unpunished. At the very least we should require US manufacturing to be moved out of China, limits placed on importing, etc. It will create inflation and a reaction from China, but we can't have what just happened repeat itself.

 

[knowknow456]

Once we get through this, it's critical that we do a post-mortem to learn from the data, what could have been done differently (and what would the cost of doing that had been - i.e, effect on the economy, building excess bed capacity, stockpiles, etc.).

One month ago today, I said

Process. Because next time we might not be so lucky.

and you said

Results. Let’s see how the numbers play out over time.

I'm glad you're now seeing it my way

 

[HALL85]

One month ago today, I said



and you said



I'm glad you're now seeing it my way

Keep trolling.

 

[knowknow456]

Keep trolling.

I learned trolling from you. Remember this little exchange?

Our entire family was supposed to participate in a cooking class in NYC this evening and just found out my daughter‘s fiancé was with somebody last night who has developed a high fever and flu like symptoms. Decided to cancel as a family and exercise caution… Not that hard really.

Would you have gone if that guys symptoms didn't show up until tomorrow?

Sure, why not?

You were trolling Merge, like it would be ridiculous for him to ask such a question. Just for context (you taught me that too!) this took place after the NBA suspended their season, MLB delayed opening day and the NCAA cancelled the conference tournament. So, either you were trolling him or you were oblivious to the fact that one month ago the world was taking COVID-19 seriously.

 

[HALL85]

I learned trolling from you. Remember this little exchange?







You were trolling Merge, like it would be ridiculous for him to ask such a question. Just for context (you taught me that too!) this took place after the NBA suspended their season, MLB delayed opening day and the NCAA cancelled the conference tournament. So, either you were trolling him or you were oblivious to the fact that one month ago the world was taking COVID-19 seriously.

Merge is quite capable of defending himself...doesn’t need a troll to.

 

[The Crows Nest]

You need to open your mind. Sad. A wise man once said, "Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety."

See my post above.

Right.
Numbers just keep climbing and some people just keep ignoring

 

[The Crows Nest]

Tax deadline vote is expected to pass.

It must have killed him to make that decision though. He can't get his greedy hands on the citizens' money until July, so he has to settle for pulling the rug out from under them instead.

Destroy everyone's livelihood in order to save a few thousand people from dying of an illness. 19,000 people died from heart disease in New Jersey in 2018. 16,000 from cancer. Almost 5,000 from "unintentional injury." Where is the concern for these things?

Question did all of that happen in 60 days??

didn’t think so

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

Right.
Numbers just keep climbing and some people just keep ignoring

Seriously dude, the numbers on heart disease grow every year, people ignore it. The numbers on diabetes grows every year, people ignore it. The numbers on childhood obesity grow every year, people ignore it. People are dying from those things more often than covid-19. There's definitely some hypoocrosy in all of this. I'm all for the war on covid-19, but there better be equal the war on all those other diseases. Yet people freaked out on their civil liberties when Bloomberg said no 32oz sodas.

 

[shu09]

Right.
Numbers just keep climbing and some people just keep ignoring

Numbers are flattening and dropping.

 

[HALL85]

Just got some data on a very large system in NE/Central PA (9 hospitals), daily for the last month. They now have 222 admissions and 107 still hospitalized, 36 in ICU, 27 on vents. The good news is that admissions a month ago were averaging 2/day to a high of 20/day last week and have started to decline over the last five days (14-15/day). April 14th was a date I heard for the peak in Eastern PA and hopefully we will start to see a further decline. No reports of PPE shortages and one system just announced they will resume elective surgeries on June 1. Some of the larger systems in NJ/PA are expected to lose between $0.5 to $1.0 billion each.

 

[Merge]

Seriously dude, the numbers on heart disease grow every year, people ignore it. The numbers on diabetes grows every year, people ignore it. The numbers on childhood obesity grow every year, people ignore it. People are dying from those things more often than covid-19. There's definitely some hypoocrosy in all of this. I'm all for the war on covid-19, but there better be equal the war on all those other diseases. Yet people freaked out on their civil liberties when Bloomberg said no 32oz sodas.

Gonna raise my hand as someone who did not freak out about the sodas. Also believe we should tax unhealthy behaviors and foods overall.

Again though... People need to stop these comparisons to things that are a personal risk to you. If you choose to smoke, eat crap or whatever... you are putting yourself at risk. Not other people.

Right now, if you choose to go get Covid, that's fine. I have no issue with you wanting to go out and get sick.
If, however, you think you should have the freedom to go get sick and then go to a crowded area and infect other people.

 

[HALL85]

Gonna raise my hand as someone who did not freak out about the sodas. Also believe we should tax unhealthy behaviors and foods overall.

Again though... People need to stop these comparisons to things that are a personal risk to you. If you choose to smoke, eat crap or whatever... you are putting yourself at risk. Not other people.

Right now, if you choose to go get Covid, that's fine. I have no issue with you wanting to go out and get sick.
If, however, you think you should have the freedom to go get sick and then go to a crowded area and infect other people.

Not exactly. If you choose to get drunk or high and get in a car, run over someone or hit them head on, your “choice” is not just about hurting yourself.

 

[Merge]

Numbers are flattening and dropping.

Number of deaths yesterday was a little depressing. I thought we were headed down but yesterday was the largest single day yet. Today doesn't look far behind either.

 

[Merge]

Not exactly. If you choose to get drunk or high and get in a car, run over someone or hit them head on, your “choice” is not just about hurting yourself.

but that is illegal?

If you choose to go out and get Covid fine.
If you choose to go out and get drunk, fine.

If you choose to let those actions potentially kill other people, that is a problem.

 

[HALL85]

but that is illegal?

If you choose to go out and get Covid fine.
If you choose to go out and get drunk, fine.

If you choose to let those actions potentially kill other people, that is a problem.

And we should treat them similarly.

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

Gonna raise my hand as someone who did not freak out about the sodas. Also believe we should tax unhealthy behaviors and foods overall.

Again though... People need to stop these comparisons to things that are a personal risk to you. If you choose to smoke, eat crap or whatever... you are putting yourself at risk. Not other people.

Right now, if you choose to go get Covid, that's fine. I have no issue with you wanting to go out and get sick.
If, however, you think you should have the freedom to go get sick and then go to a crowded area and infect other people.

Completely disagree. Go read up on how the government allows marketing to confuse people into thinking they’re living a healthy lifestyle when they’re not. There are a lot of people trying to get healthy but don’t know how because of the gimmicks companies can use to trick them. Also there’s so many preservatives and pesticides in healthy options that make them unhealthy. So there are a lot of people who are choosing to be healthy but the information put out there can easily trick people.

 

[shu09]

Gonna raise my hand as someone who did not freak out about the sodas. Also believe we should tax unhealthy behaviors and foods overall.

Again though... People need to stop these comparisons to things that are a personal risk to you. If you choose to smoke, eat crap or whatever... you are putting yourself at risk. Not other people.

Right now, if you choose to go get Covid, that's fine. I have no issue with you wanting to go out and get sick.
If, however, you think you should have the freedom to go get sick and then go to a crowded area and infect other people.

That's not what we're talking about. People who have the virus are, and should be, isolated. Those who DON'T have it should not face the same restrictions.

 

[shu09]

Number of deaths yesterday was a little depressing. I thought we were headed down but yesterday was the largest single day yet. Today doesn't look far behind either.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. A math guy like yourself should know that.

 

[Merge]

That's not what we're talking about. People who have the virus are, and should be, isolated. Those who DON'T have it should not face the same restrictions.

Yep. See my posts from over a month ago where I am saying we need a massive amount of testing to get out of this.

Until we know who has it and who doesn't, we are just guessing.

 

[Merge]

Deaths are a lagging indicator. A math guy like yourself should know that.

Yes, I do understand that. I was hoping we were over the hump on deaths since it looked like it was starting to drop.
Increase in the number of cases as a percentage has flattened out.

Though NJ is still returning over 50% positive on new tests performed. That is not a good sign.

 

[Merge]

Yep. See my posts from over a month ago where I am saying we need a massive amount of testing to get out of this.

Until we know who has it and who doesn't, we are just guessing.

and following up on that. This is what I said on March 13. When there were less than 2k confirmed cases.

Progress is great but still a long way to go and really need to be testing people beyond those who are sick. If you get sick at all, you have potentially been spreading it for weeks. To contain this, we need millions of tests as soon as possible so those who are asymptomatic can self quarantine.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[shu09]

Yes, I do understand that. I was hoping we were over the hump on deaths since it looked like it was starting to drop.
Increase in the number of cases as a percentage has flattened out.

Though NJ is still returning over 50% positive on new tests performed. That is not a good sign.

Could it be that fewer people are taking tests? Maybe those taking the tests are the ones who truly feel they have it. There could also be a backlog from notoriously slow labs. I don't know the actual numbers on this.

 

[The Crows Nest]

Seriously dude, the numbers on heart disease grow every year, people ignore it. The numbers on diabetes grows every year, people ignore it. The numbers on childhood obesity grow every year, people ignore it. People are dying from those things more often than covid-19. There's definitely some hypoocrosy in all of this. I'm all for the war on covid-19, but there better be equal the war on all those other diseases. Yet people freaked out on their civil liberties when Bloomberg said no 32oz sodas.

they sure do....and they sure are.

BUT they aren't catching any of those things from people suttling next to them at a ballgame.

HUGE difference.

 

[The Crows Nest]

Numbers are flattening and dropping.

I sure hope so.....deaths on the other hand will likely continue to rise for a bit.

One thing I sure hope we can all agree on....we dont want to go thru this again.

Do we?

 

[shu09]

I sure hope so.....deaths on the other hand will likely continue to rise for a bit.

One thing I sure hope we can all agree on....we dont want to go thru this again.

Do we?

Nope, but next time it happens let's not overhype it and shut everything down. Okay?

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

they sure do....and they sure are.

BUT they aren't catching any of those things from people suttling next to them at a ballgame.

HUGE difference.

I don’t see a difference. either you believe we should have a war on diseases that kill people or you don’t. I only want wars on disease I can catch a ball game...Really? You might not have to shut down the country but we still need to attack those diseases just as hard as Coronavirus.

 

[HALL85]

Not sure if anyone has faced this yet, but our one daughter who works for a big Pharma company (and she’s been WFH for about three weeks) had a discussion with her boss today about things that are being considered when they return. The office is an open hotelling concept and they are trying to decide if they need to reconfigure it to provide cubes/additional space. I can only imagine if legislators get involved in this.

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

Not sure if anyone has faced this yet, but our one daughter who works for a big Pharma company (and she’s been WFH for about three weeks) had a discussion with her boss today about things that are being considered when they return. The office is an open hotelling concept and they are trying to decide if they need to reconfigure it to provide cubes/additional space. I can only imagine if legislators get involved in this.

I deal with a lot of restaurants. A lot more table spacing and outdoor dining. Some are discussing rooftop dining. I’m curious what little leagues are going to do with dugouts. Most don’t have room for social distancing.

 

[HALL85]

I deal with a lot of restaurants. A lot more table spacing and outdoor dining. Some are discussing rooftop dining.

Half as many tables...prices will go up. Some areas are going to get socked with hyperinflation.

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

Half as many tables...prices will go up. Some areas are going to get socked with hyperinflation.

I think you’ll be hearing about special priced menus like between 2 and 5. So instead of a restaurant having that 3-4 hour gap, they’re going to try to turn the tables more. I also think towns are going to have be more lenient especially if a restaurant loses 5 tables inside, give them a few extra tables on the sidewalk to make up the difference.

 

[HALL85]

I think you’ll be hearing about special priced menus like between 2 and 5. So instead of a restaurant having that 3-4 hour gap, they’re going to try to turn the tables more.

They are going to have to get creative. On another front, what about commuter buses? Spacing requirements spreading passengers out. Fewer passengers to cover fixed costs. Airlines as well...it may have taken a pandemic to give us more leg and elbow room, but wait til you see the cost of that flight.

 

[The Crows Nest]

I don’t see a difference. either you believe we should have a war on diseases that kill people or you don’t. I only want wars on disease I can catch a ball game...Really? You might not have to shut down the country but we still need to attack those diseases just as hard as Coronavirus.

I get that you obviously cannot see the difference between a socially distributed disease, and one that is singular to the person in question, for the most part (yeah I get there are other factors...but not at all like this).
So, we should have what? social distancing for heart disease? for diabetes? Because why? I can catch it from someone?

C'mon these are apples and oranges, and you just want to make a nice, neat simple comparison...but it isn't

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

I get that you obviously cannot see the difference between a socially distributed disease, and one that is singular to the person in question, for the most part (yeah I get there are other factors...but not at all like this).
So, we should have what? social distancing for heart disease? for diabetes? Because why? I can catch it from someone?

C'mon these are apples and oranges, and you just want to make a nice, neat simple comparison...but it isn't

Why shouldn’t we have preventive measures for heart disease. Social distancing is a cure for Coronavirus. Great let’s do it. A cure for heart disease, childhood obesity, high blood pressure, diabetes, etc is pretty much get rid of the shit that’s bad for you including the shit that’s advertised as healthy but it’s not. Why are you so against that? Don’t want your soda taken away? It’s a drain on the health care system as well as a cause for insane insurance costs. Plenty of areas in the world with almost no heart disease. Go see what they don’t eat. Let’s fight a war against Coronavirus, but let’s not fight one vs overall health. Heck we probably wouldn’t have so many preexisting conditions. Less preexisting conditions = less deaths from Coronavirus.

 

[knowknow456]

Half as many tables...prices will go up. Some areas are going to get socked with hyperinflation.

Not only are you an expert with Pharma, have access to infectious disease doctors, have your CFO on speed dial for those pesky PPP questions and have the world's most politically savvy South Korean dry cleaner, now you are an Economist as well. You are a true Renaissance man.

 

[HALL85]

Not only are you an expert with Pharma, have access to infectious disease doctors, have your CFO on speed dial for those pesky PPP questions and have the world's most politically savvy South Korean dry cleaner, now you are an Economist as well. You are a true Renaissance man.

Now you’ve become a creepy troll...oddly obsessed with me.

 

[knowknow456]

Now you’ve become a creepy troll...oddly obsessed with me.

I give up. I try to give you a compliment and I get grief for it.