Moving to Phase II

[Merge]

This is true, the power of incumbency is always underrated.

I think this is why you're seeing him push for a quick restart and why a lot of governors from the other party (Newsom, Murphy, Pritzker, Cuomo, Whitmer) are showing signs of resisting that. They're going to hide behind "public health," play politics and delay re-opening as long as they possibly can because they know opening up will help Trump.

If we come out of this too soon, we will be forced to do this all over again. That will cause more death and more economic hurt than necessary.

I get the cynicism, but could just as easily argue that Trump and some conservative politicians will want to come out of this too quickly to help Trump in the short term disregarding of the additional death and economic toll in the future. I'd even argue coming out too soon will hurt Trump if we see this start to come back before the election.

Lets just focus on getting this correct now and err on the side of caution. I would happily take another 4 years of Trump over getting this wrong... and I absolutely hate Trump.

 

[Hallsome]

If we come out of this too soon, we will be forced to do this all over again. That will cause more death and more economic hurt than necessary.

I get the cynicism, but could just as easily argue that Trump and some conservative politicians will want to come out of this too quickly to help Trump in the short term disregarding of the additional death and economic toll in the future. I'd even argue coming out too soon will hurt Trump if we see this start to come back before the election.

Lets just focus on getting this correct now and err on the side of caution. I would happily take another 4 years of Trump over getting this wrong... and I absolutely hate Trump.

You might be among the minority among dems and even some Republicans with the first part of your last sentence which is so so sad if I’m right

 

[Hallsome]

If we come out of this too soon, we will be forced to do this all over again. That will cause more death and more economic hurt than necessary.

I get the cynicism, but could just as easily argue that Trump and some conservative politicians will want to come out of this too quickly to help Trump in the short term disregarding of the additional death and economic toll in the future. I'd even argue coming out too soon will hurt Trump if we see this start to come back before the election.

Lets just focus on getting this correct now and err on the side of caution. I would happily take another 4 years of Trump over getting this wrong... and I absolutely hate Trump.

agree it seems like if we come back too early might get worse

But I haven’t seen anything close to confirmation that there’s a solution to prevent second wave

It’s going to keep occurring absent a medical solution and it’s only a “second” wave because of this interim stay at home policy

 

[shu09]

I found this interesting. Murphy didn't even think of the Constitution when instituting his order. I'm not surprised. These politicians fire first and think later. Then he throws out fugazi numbers of a third of the population getting the virus.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...s-lockdown-on-fox-news-heres-how-it-went.html

(don't ask me why I was on NJ.com LOL)

 

[Merge]

I found this interesting. Murphy didn't even think of the Constitution when instituting his order. I'm not surprised. These politicians fire first and think later.

Good.

He is trying to protect the people in NJ from dying. I would do the same given the opportunity. Let the courts tell me if I messed up after I save all the lives.

I don't have strong feelings on Murphy, but he gains points there from me.

 

[Piratz]

I found this interesting. Murphy didn't even think of the Constitution when instituting his order. I'm not surprised. These politicians fire first and think later. Then he throws out fugazi numbers of a third of the population getting the virus.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...s-lockdown-on-fox-news-heres-how-it-went.html

(don't ask me why I was on NJ.com LOL)

It's not a surprise why NJ was hit harder since it's the most densely populated state in the Union and it hit here first. Like wildfire. Heck, half the reason people are always pissed off and short tempered is everyone is on top of everyone, LOL!!!

It's a compelling debate for sure. The balance between civil liberties and what constitutes public safety in a society like ours has been one of the central debates since the founding of this country. It's always been a pendulum and always will be. That's the design.

This country has a long history of success and failure on both sides. We all know the examples, from putting the Japanese in holding camps during WWII to the Patriot Act after 9/11, and so on and so forth. Where will COVID-19 end up?

 

[SPK145]

I found this interesting. Murphy didn't even think of the Constitution when instituting his order. I'm not surprised. These politicians fire first and think later. Then he throws out fugazi numbers of a third of the population getting the virus.

Remember, state health commissioner Persichilli said we all going to get it:

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...-as-she-leads-the-states-coronavirus-war.html

So far there are 71,030 confirmed cases in NJ, so only 8,865,544 to go. 0.79% of the population. Just ridiculous.

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

I found this interesting. Murphy didn't even think of the Constitution when instituting his order. I'm not surprised. These politicians fire first and think later. Then he throws out fugazi numbers of a third of the population getting the virus.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...s-lockdown-on-fox-news-heres-how-it-went.html

(don't ask me why I was on NJ.com LOL)

Tucker grilled him good. I like Tucker but for the most part you have to take what he says with a grain of salt as I’ve said in an earlier post the only journalist I trust to be down the middle is Chris Wallace.

 

[shu09]

Remember, state health commissioner Persichilli said we all going to get it:

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...-as-she-leads-the-states-coronavirus-war.html

So far there are 71,030 confirmed cases in NJ, so only 8,865,544 to go. 0.79% of the population. Just ridiculous.

The "leadership" in Trenton is absolutely laughable.

 

[shu09]

Tucker grilled him good. I like Tucker but for the most part you have to take what he says with a grain of salt as I’ve said in an earlier post the only journalist I trust to be down the middle is Chris Wallace.

Carlson has an agenda. Not as bad as Sean Hannity, but I've never liked Carlson. That said, he did a decent job here. Just as he did back when Trump was threatening to go to war with Iran.

 

[shu09]

Good.

He is trying to protect the people in NJ from dying. I would do the same given the opportunity. Let the courts tell me if I messed up after I save all the lives.

I don't have strong feelings on Murphy, but he gains points there from me.

Well, I sure hope he and his administration (and his AG) get sued into oblivion. Murphy is your typical far left new age liberal who thinks everything can be managed, controlled and legislated by government, there always must be someone to blame for your own problems and we all should live in a fantastical utopia where there is never anything bad that can happen because they have it all under control.

 

[Piratz]

NJ is running a dashboard on this, maybe was linked here previously, idk.

https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/topics/covid2019_dashboard.shtml

 

[shu09]

NJ is running a dashboard on this, maybe was linked here previously, idk.

https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/topics/covid2019_dashboard.shtml

It's really not a problem in southern NJ. Mostly the tightly packed urban areas of Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Passaic, etc.

In the end it may be best for local governments to decide what restrictions to deploy if necessary. Just as nationally what's good for New York probably isn't good for Nebraska, what works in Teaneck probably isn't necessary in Egg Harbor.

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

Carlson has an agenda. Not as bad as Sean Hannity, but I've never liked Carlson. That said, he did a decent job here. Just as he did back when Trump was threatening to go to war with Iran.

If by agenda you mean desire to prove he’s smarter than you, then yes. I don’t think he’s out to say Trumps right, Republicans are right. I think it’s an ego thing. To his credit I will say he is very smart.

 

[knowknow456]

NJ is running a dashboard on this, maybe was linked here previously, idk.

https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/topics/covid2019_dashboard.shtml

Thanks for posting. I have been referencing this site on the Dr. Fauci thread to provide summary data but for some reason, I never actually posted the link. Hall85 has been posting data from the hospitals he is most closely affiliated with as well. There are a couple of other sites linked also that try to provide facts and forecasts so we can look at the trend line. Thanks again.

 

[Merge]

Well, I sure hope he and his administration (and his AG) get sued into oblivion.

Would be an interesting case. One in which I think the state would win.

 

[knowknow456]

Would be an interesting case. One in which I think the state would win.

Jacobson vs Massachusetts was a 1905 Supreme Court case on this topic. A lot has changed in 115 years but any current challenge would reference this case.

 

[Merge]

Remember, state health commissioner Persichilli said we all going to get it:

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...-as-she-leads-the-states-coronavirus-war.html

So far there are 71,030 confirmed cases in NJ, so only 8,865,544 to go. 0.79% of the population. Just ridiculous.

Adding in some perspective since that was published...

The number of cases in NJ has increased by 5,700%
The number of deaths in NJ related to Covid has increased by 22,000%

All while the state has been pretty much shut down.

Some of you really don't understand the data here.

 

[Merge]

Jacobson vs Massachusetts was a 1905 Supreme Court case on this topic. A lot has changed in 115 years but any current challenge would reference this case.

Yep, the opinion recognizes that is public safety is something that we could have reasonable regulations which would impair our liberty.

We would basically be arguing what is reasonable, and I think that is an easy defense at the moment.

 

[knowknow456]

Yep, the opinion recognizes that is public safety is something that we could have reasonable regulations which would impair our liberty.

We would basically be arguing what is reasonable, and I think that is an easy defense at the moment.

Here is the other case that gets mentioned from 1902

Compagnie Francaise de Navigation a Vapeur v. Louisiana Board of Health

 

[Hallsome]

It's not a surprise why NJ was hit harder since it's the most densely populated state in the Union and it hit here first. Like wildfire. Heck, half the reason people are always pissed off and short tempered is everyone is on top of everyone, LOL!!!

It's a compelling debate for sure. The balance between civil liberties and what constitutes public safety in a society like ours has been one of the central debates since the founding of this country. It's always been a pendulum and always will be. That's the design.

This country has a long history of success and failure on both sides. We all know the examples, from putting the Japanese in holding camps during WWII to the Patriot Act after 9/11, and so on and so forth. Where will COVID-19 end up?

Well said

 

[shu09]

Adding in some perspective since that was published...

The number of cases in NJ has increased by 5,700%
The number of deaths in NJ related to Covid has increased by 22,000%

All while the state has been pretty much shut down.

Some of you really don't understand the data here.

Maybe the virus simply runs its course regardless of what we are doing?

 

[Merge]

Maybe the virus simply runs its course regardless of what we are doing?

In my opinion the biggest reason why we are doing what we are doing now is so we do not overload the healthcare systems.
Without these stay at home orders, the number of infected and needing care would likely have been drastically higher. We would not have near the capacity we need.

Quite different if 2 million people in New Jersey get the virus in the next year vs 2 million in the next two months.

We can't predict the future, we can only act to mitigate potential disaster. I don't think there was a good option.

 

[Piratz]

Maybe the virus simply runs its course regardless of what we are doing?

But how do we treat it? Do you just let people get sick and wing it, hoping it runs its course without major catastrophe? I feel like the genie is out of the bottle on that now.

Right now NJ is running at what, a 44% positive rate out of a very small sample of ~2% of the population tested, I think? A very small % of positives - less than 1% of population, but not a representative sampling pool to reflect the total.

Since we've been distancing and judging on the trend of hospital cases since the distancing began a month ago, that 44% is probably much lower across the entire population of the State, but not burnt out. People are not encountering the viral loads that would hospitalize because they're not mingling. But if we let this rip without knowing how to treat it, then what? We keep stop-go-stop? Do we let travel across the country resume freely?

 

[shu09]

44% positive is because the only people being tested are the ones having symptoms, those who think they do have the virus. That number will drop considerably if testing is expanded.

 

[The Crows Nest]

In my opinion the biggest reason why we are doing what we are doing now is so we do not overload the healthcare systems.
Without these stay at home orders, the number of infected and needing care would likely have been drastically higher. We would not have near the capacity we need.

Quite different if 2 million people in New Jersey get the virus in the next year vs 2 million in the next two months.

We can't predict the future, we can only act to mitigate potential disaster. I don't think there was a good option.

That is exactly one of the major differentiators between this virus and the flu (among many)...the flu occurs over 89 or 9 months...hospitals might have a handful of patients at any one time inhouse for the flu (also because flu is not a deadly as COVID...another major difference), whereas today, hospitals virtually have ONLY COVID patients in house, save moms and babies, and the literal handful of truly urgent life or death cases. And when so many of them require ICU like care (again, as different than the flu) this simply overwhelms the system.

 

[Stevie_H]

Seriously dude, the numbers on heart disease grow every year, people ignore it. The numbers on diabetes grows every year, people ignore it. The numbers on childhood obesity grow every year, people ignore it. People are dying from those things more often than covid-19. There's definitely some hypoocrosy in all of this. I'm all for the war on covid-19, but there better be equal the war on all those other diseases. Yet people freaked out on their civil liberties when Bloomberg said no 32oz sodas.

How many people die of false equivalences every year?

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

How many people die of false equivalences every year?

1 for every worthwhile post you make.

650,000+ people dying every year from heart disease, but because it's not contageous we can ignore it.

 

[donnie_baseball]

Not every criticism of Trump is/was fair. There is a lot that is unknown when something fairly unprecedented happens.
Trump is not to blame for all of it, and I think any president would have had missteps dealing with this.

Where Trump is unique is that he is not capable of saying he was wrong about something. A lot of people had this wrong early on, but as the data suggested they need to change their opinions, they did. Trump couldn't which is why as experts were stating to pivot, Trump kept doubling down and now he thinks he can campaign on the fact that other people being wrong too to make himself look better? Keep rating his performance as a 10. Keep saying he knows better than anyone else etc...

Very fair and excellent post. I am no fan of Trump, but no lefty either. It seems like some lefties (present company included) are enjoying this situation a little too much, given the harm it is doing to Trump's hopes for re-election. No small part of that is the unemployment figures and possible stock market nosedive.

 

[Stevie_H]

1 for every worthwhile post you make.

650,000+ people dying every year from heart disease, but because it's not contageous we can ignore it.

False equivalence + straw man argument. Good work. Can you hit for a logical fallacy cycle?

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

Very fair and excellent post. I am no fan of Trump, but no lefty either. It seems like some lefties (present company included) are enjoying this situation a little too much, given the harm it is doing to Trump's hopes for re-election. No small part of that is the unemployment figures and possible stock market nosedive.

Lefties are still running Joe Biden. Not sure he's much more inspiring than Hillary. Years of hearing get the rich old white guys out of power and they couldn't win in their own party to get the kind of nominee they wanted.

 

[donnie_baseball]

Lefties are still running Joe Biden. Not sure he's much more inspiring than Hillary. Years of hearing get the old white guys out of power and they couldn't win in their own party to get the kind of nominee they wanted.

The Democrats might be the only party that is as much of a hot mess as the Republicans.

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

False equivalence + straw man argument. Good work. Can you hit for a logical fallacy cycle?

For the cycle. Bernie Sanders would make a great president.

 

[Piratz]

Very fair and excellent post. I am no fan of Trump, but no lefty either. It seems like some lefties (present company included) are enjoying this situation a little too much, given the harm it is doing to Trump's hopes for re-election. No small part of that is the unemployment figures and possible stock market nosedive.

Definitely. COVID-19 is a political volleyball, sadly. Battle lines drawn. The President already tweeting to "liberate" states. Oh boy. It's on. That didn't take long. What, 4 weeks? I don't know, we'll see what happens. The virus itself will dictate terms.

We'd all love to get back to real life, my God. This sucks.

I don't know what'll ever shake the tribal nature and true "Fake News" of this country (both sides). It seems worse than ever to me because of the unprecedented media reach of the panderers, lack of reliable factual information, and forget working together pragmatically in that absurd DC Bubble. People go straight to mocking and name calling = scorched Earth.

In the meantime regardless of their nonsense, let us hope a treatment will be made available soon and the data from testing gives us a better indication of what's going on here with those symptomatic and those not in terms of continued or re-igniting spread.

 

[Stevie_H]

For the cycle. Bernie Sanders would make a great president.

Insinuating Bernie would be a terrible president is the first sign of a cogent thought you've displayed in this entire thread! Kudos.

Side note...I never have, nor will I, understand the Bernie appeal for Dems that support him. What has he accomplished besides a lot of pointing and dragging the party left? He makes Trump-like promises that he's got no shot of achieving and the math behind some of his ideas...woof. I got a kick out of the (left-leaning) Tax Policy Center's 2016 analysis of Bernie's tax and spending proposals, which can be summarized with "LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!"

 

[Merge]

1 for every worthwhile post you make.

650,000+ people dying every year from heart disease, but because it's not contageous we can ignore it.

We don't ignore heart disease. We have banned foods, mandated warnings and information that needs to be disclosed. Funded studies etc... at the end of the day though, if you want to eat / drink poorly nothing the government says will stop you.

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

We don't ignore heart disease. We have banned foods, mandated warnings and information that needs to be disclosed. Funded studies etc... at the end of the day though, if you want to ear / drink poorly nothing the government says will stop you.

Funded studies are the biggest joke in the country. None of those studies are independent.
https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/study-uncovers-how-coca-cola-influences-science-research

Here's an interesting article on heart disease. You think we will ever use it as basis. It's been around for 50 years. To not acknowledge it is ignorance.
https://www.drcarney.com/blog/entry/diet-linked-to-heart-disease-reduction-during-war

 

[HALL85]

Very fair and excellent post. I am no fan of Trump, but no lefty either. It seems like some lefties (present company included) are enjoying this situation a little too much, given the harm it is doing to Trump's hopes for re-election. No small part of that is the unemployment figures and possible stock market nosedive.

Barring something unforeseen, it's looking more and more like Trump will prevail now that he's got the perfect new enemy lined up....and it's not Biden. Pretty obvious China is going to be the target, especially if more and more comes out that they weren't transparent or covered up what happened. The electorate will be pissed that their mistakes or worse have killed tens of thousands, cratered our economies and altered our lifestyles for years to come. Trump already has taken a strong trade stance with China and now he can pile on. What is Biden's position going to be..."we need to work with them? I wouldn't do what he did?"

The healthcare industry is already discussing changing sourcing strategies and either bringing the manufacturing back here or opening up in other countries. When the widget costs 30% more to buy, American balks; now that it's cost lives and disrupted everything we do, the landscape has changed.

Unfortunately with a second Trump term the divisiveness in this country will only get worse...no turning back on that. But at least cable news will love it.

 

[Piratz]

The healthcare industry is already discussing changing sourcing strategies and either bringing the manufacturing back here or opening up in other countries. When the widget costs 30% more to buy, American balks; now that it's cost lives and disrupted everything we do, the landscape has changed.

A lot of this was already underway and/or exploratory because of the tariffs, albeit very difficult to move manufacturing bases so quickly especially considering how under-developed some of the other areas are (Burma, Bangladesh, etc.), and then how many components would need to still come from China. China isn't dumb, they had been doing a lot to artificially lower costs and share burden with American companies who were the ones actually paying the tariffs until the Election, but you are 100% right that this entire situation is going to really drive the change forward to new levels.

The amount of Clinical Advisory Boards, Supply Chain Boards, and so on and so forth throughout the country who are in, potentially, harms way because of this is incredible.

The narrowing of the supply chains in healthcare to China exclusively in many areas has been a sleeping giant for 15 years. It's come home to roost.

And then the pharma industry... Wild times.

 

[Pirata]

Bill Mahr en Fuego.

Note: He drops an F-bomb. Not sure if that violates policy. If so, I will delete the post.