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Ron DeSanctimonious

Cool…just keep debating the importance with yourself then.

And you can keep pretending to be above talking about it even though you had no problem discussing this kind of thing at the same time during previous election cycles...

I bet of Haley had emerged as a front runner by now, you'd find the polling very interesting...

A front runner without a presumptive nominee at this point doesn't mean much.
Giuliani in in 2008 and Bush 2016 for example.
A front runner who is a "presumptive" nominee leading at this point kind of does though.
Romney in 2012, Hillary 2016, Biden 2020.

Trump being the ex POTUS would tend to be in that latter bucket.
 
Really not uncommon for people on this board to talk about a topic like that. We did early in 2015 and 2019.

Hilary was leading every poll at this time in 2015, Biden was leading every poll at this time in 2019.

Trump leading in pretty much every poll in 2023 is not insignificant. Doesn't guarantee him the spot since he carries more baggage that anyone probably in history, though it is still a bit shocking that anyone with this much baggage can still hit 40% support.

That said, Desantis has been more likeable in his recent interviews. Laughing off the Trump criticisms etc.
He'll do well if he can keep that up and an indictment takes Trump out. I don't think he will do as well if he has to go head to head with Trump though.
I’ve always found Desantis likeable and his background is admirable. Trump will bring him into the gutter to an extent because that’s what Trump does and he is better than anyone at doing it. How Desantis responds doesn’t matter to me, but I get it does for some. I care about makeup and policy above all. If he isn’t as magnetic in some speech I don’t care much about that as much and think most open/minded folks probably don’t, especially considering our last two Presidents.
 
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And you can keep pretending to be above talking about it even though you had no problem discussing this kind of thing at the same time during previous election cycles...

I bet of Haley had emerged as a front runner by now, you'd find the polling very interesting...

A front runner without a presumptive nominee at this point doesn't mean much.
Giuliani in in 2008 and Bush 2016 for example.
A front runner who is a "presumptive" nominee leading at this point kind of does though.
Romney in 2012, Hillary 2016, Biden 2020.

Trump being the ex POTUS would tend to be in that latter bucket.
“Pretending”…lol.
 
And if the nominee is Trump, you will vote for Trump in the general?

I resisted in both 2016 and 2020, but if it's Trump versus Biden, I have to go with Trump. For all his bluster and idiocy, we are actually in a worse place now with Biden, and I don't say that lightly. And I agree that he is only out for himself, and a pathological liar. I, like Merge, hope he is indicted, found guilty, and disqualified.
 
It must be that he's getting old, but I'm agreeing with @Merge more and more of late. It's amazing that the Republican establishment can't see that Trump, while he may run away with the nomination, will not beat Biden in a rematch, in all likelihood.
DeSantis, on the other hand, has a chance, depending on the "Trump or Die!" crowd, which I think is small. After Trump, you'll get very few Dems crossing over to vote for DeSantis, and he will get beat up with the "Don't Say Gay" lies, so plenty of votes from the usual places for Biden, who has been absolutely terrible, to date.
 
I resisted in both 2016 and 2020, but if it's Trump versus Biden, I have to go with Trump. For all his bluster and idiocy, we are actually in a worse place now with Biden, and I don't say that lightly. And I agree that he is only out for himself, and a pathological liar. I, like Merge, hope he is indicted, found guilty, and disqualified.
Might be tough to find him guilty, what with Michael Cohen being the star witness. Habitual liar.

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It must be that he's getting old, but I'm agreeing with @Merge more and more of late. It's amazing that the Republican establishment can't see that Trump, while he may run away with the nomination, will not beat Biden in a rematch, in all likelihood.
DeSantis, on the other hand, has a chance, depending on the "Trump or Die!" crowd, which I think is small. After Trump, you'll get very few Dems crossing over to vote for DeSantis, and he will get beat up with the "Don't Say Gay" lies, so plenty of votes from the usual places for Biden, who has been absolutely terrible, to date.
I think Jerome Powell and Janet Yellin have more say in who wins the election than Trump or Biden. The economy is a real unknown. As much as morals want to kick in for Biden over Trump, Biden really has 15 months to solve 2 major issues. We're fighting both inflation and financial stability at the same time. What was once transitory inflation is now being combatted by raising interest rates, which may go up more, which could lead to layoffs. Trump can win a general more than I thought he would if Bidens team doesn't figure this economy out.
 
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I think Jerome Powell and Janet Yellin have more say in who wins the election than Trump or Biden. The economy is a real unknown. As much as morals want to kick in for Biden over Trump, Biden really has 15 months to solve 2 major issues. We're fighting both inflation and financial stability at the same time. What was once transitory inflation is now being combatted by raising interest rates, which may go up more, which could lead to layoffs. Trump can win a general more than I thought he would if Bidens team doesn't figure this economy out.

Layoffs are the goal unfortunately. Only way to really stop inflation without price controls is to get people to stop spending money somehow, and Powell is trying to inflict some pain in the labor market to sort that out. I think the rate increases have been too aggressive personally.

That said, Inflation numbers are likely to drop quite a bit over the next 4 months. I don't see that as the winning political issue going forward for republicans.
The annualized rate over the last 4 months is 3.6%. It's a trailing 12 month average so as long as the monthly CPI numbers are less than 1%, .4%, .9% and 1.2% (and they should be a fair amount lower) the inflation rate should be well below 4% by the July print.

Biden will get to campaign on having "fixed" inflation with his inflation reduction act, though obviously that's just political rhetoric and not really why it will be declining, the messaging will be effective.
 
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I think Jerome Powell and Janet Yellin have more say in who wins the election than Trump or Biden. The economy is a real unknown. As much as morals want to kick in for Biden over Trump, Biden really has 15 months to solve 2 major issues. We're fighting both inflation and financial stability at the same time. What was once transitory inflation is now being combatted by raising interest rates, which may go up more, which could lead to layoffs. Trump can win a general more than I thought he would if Bidens team doesn't figure this economy out.
"It's the economy, stupid"
-- Cicero
 
Layoffs are the goal unfortunately. Only way to really stop inflation without price controls is to get people to stop spending money somehow, and Powell is trying to inflict some pain in the labor market to sort that out. I think the rate increases have been too aggressive personally.

That said, Inflation numbers are likely to drop quite a bit over the next 4 months. I don't see that as the winning political issue going forward for republicans.
The annualized rate over the last 4 months is 3.6%. It's a trailing 12 month average so as long as the monthly CPI numbers are less than 1%, .4%, .9% and 1.2% (and they should be a fair amount lower) the inflation rate should be well below 4% by the July print.

Biden will get to campaign on having "fixed" inflation with his inflation reduction act, though obviously that's just political rhetoric and not really why it will be declining, the messaging will be effective.
If he can convince people by our great work we solved inflation by putting you or your loved ones out work, he will win with ease and at the same time prove once and for all people are getting dumber.

I'm not confident in Powell or Yellin to battle inflation and economic stability at the same time. This is extremely complex. Honestly we need people from the private sector who understand this at a much higher level to step in. Not that my 2 cents matters but I think people who choose to make billions in the private sector are probably a little smarter.
 
Layoffs are the goal unfortunately. Only way to really stop inflation without price controls is to get people to stop spending money somehow, and Powell is trying to inflict some pain in the labor market to sort that out. I think the rate increases have been too aggressive personally.

That said, Inflation numbers are likely to drop quite a bit over the next 4 months. I don't see that as the winning political issue going forward for republicans.
The annualized rate over the last 4 months is 3.6%. It's a trailing 12 month average so as long as the monthly CPI numbers are less than 1%, .4%, .9% and 1.2% (and they should be a fair amount lower) the inflation rate should be well below 4% by the July print.

Biden will get to campaign on having "fixed" inflation with his inflation reduction act, though obviously that's just political rhetoric and not really why it will be declining, the messaging will be effective.

This country badly needs a recession to cool things off. Hate to say it, but it's true. Spending and price increases are out of control.

The dirty little secret about inflation is the way they measure it. Next year you will see (hopefully) low annualized increases. But that's comparing future 2024 prices to baseline 2023 prices, which are already extremely elevated. The increases we've seen over the last 18 months won't be rolled back. They will become the new floor, and that hurts the middle and lower class.

While economists are appalled by deflation, that's what we really need. For example, a gallon of milk or a dozen eggs shouldn't cost $4-5. That price needs to be deflated.
 
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If he can convince people by our great work we solved inflation by putting you or your loved ones out work, he will win with ease and at the same time prove once and for all people are getting dumber.

Right if you believe inflation is a problem to be addressed, then there is going to be some kind of pain to go along with that.

We are well above what we consider to be normal "full employment" levels, so looking at it strictly from an economic view, it's not unreasonable to want to see a pullback there.

I don't think most people care about the nuances of the arguments. At the end of the day what matters to most people is that we keep the unemployment rate reasonably low and the prices people are paying for goods stops increasing so much. Politically speaking, I think inflation will be a favorable topic for dems this cycle.
 
I think inflation will be a favorable topic for dems this cycle.
I think it's a toss up. From the reading I've done a few people who were predicting economic problems in 2006 before they happened in 2008 are extremely concerned. It doesn't mean they'll be right again but I'm concerned and think its a good time to keep money on the side to invest in about 6 months.
 
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Inflation. Was about 1.5% when Biden took office.So to say Biden did a good job by decreasing it to 4% compared to the 9% it went to late last year is ludicrous,but since most people don’t follow this issue closely they will think it is a great accomplishment.Kinda like saying illegal immigration is down from 2 million but still much greater than it was when Biden took office,so Biden doing a great job.Figures don’t lie ,but liars can figure.
 
Inflation. Was about 1.5% when Biden took office.So to say Biden did a good job by decreasing it to 4% compared to the 9% it went to late last year is ludicrous,but since most people don’t follow this issue closely they will think it is a great accomplishment.Kinda like saying illegal immigration is down from 2 million but still much greater than it was when Biden took office,so Biden doing a great job.Figures don’t lie ,but liars can figure.
Inflation rose all around the globe. Is Biden to blame for the entire globe?

I also take issue with the idea that people don't follow the inflation issue closely. It's something that everyone has to deal with in their daily lives, I'd say that it's a very important issue for almost everyone.

I don't really subscribe to the idea that you can blame Biden (or any single politician) for "the economy" at a given time anyway, but particularly about Biden, who has hardly done anything while in office. What do you think it is about Biden that caused this inflation? His wokeness?
 
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DeSantis is only 44. If I were him, I'd wait until 2028. Maybe Trump dies or gives up running for office by then. In the meantime he can run Florida, do his little stunts that stick it to the libs, figure out how to cultivate a personality, and then if the Dems win in 2024 it's a completely open field in 2028.

 
I don't really subscribe to the idea that you can blame Biden (or any single politician) for "the economy" at a given time anyway, but particularly about Biden, who has hardly done anything while in office. What do you think it is about Biden that caused this inflation? His wokeness?
Putting people in positions based on how they check a box as opposed to who is most qualified is an issue. Wokeness hasn't helped. It's not the cause but better people, including the ones who happen to be dare I say it straight white males, could've handled it better.
 
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DeSantis is only 44. If I were him, I'd wait until 2028. Maybe Trump dies or gives up running for office by then. In the meantime he can run Florida, do his little stunts that stick it to the libs, figure out how to cultivate a personality, and then if the Dems win in 2024 it's a completely open field in 2028.

He’s ready. The danger in waiting is his popularity may never be higher. This is a guy who staunch Democrats came out for last election and supported, at least ones who live in Florida. The only reason to wait politically is to avoid having to face Trump. I get that logic but selfishly I’m hoping Trump goes away and I think DeSantis is the only one who can potentially stop him.
 
I think it's a toss up. From the reading I've done a few people who were predicting economic problems in 2006 before they happened in 2008 are extremely concerned. It doesn't mean they'll be right again but I'm concerned and think its a good time to keep money on the side to invest in about 6 months.

There is some trouble lurking for sure. I don't disagree there.

2008 was a different animal though where our we built up markets on bad assets. I don't think there's a similar potential this time around. Even with the SVB collapse, those assets were still good in the long term. A short term correction there could be healthy for the economy.

On inflation specifically it looks back at the last 12 months. June 2022, March 2022 and May 2022 were the highest monthly inflation rates during this cycle of inflation. By July, those will have rolled off and we should be well below 4% by July, probably closer to 3% and he will be taking victory laps on that. (Doesn't deserve to, but didn't deserve the blame he was getting either)
 
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There is some trouble lurking for sure. I don't disagree there.

2008 was a different animal though where our we built up markets on bad assets. I don't think there's a similar potential this time around. Even with the SVB collapse, those assets were still good in the long term. A short term correction there could be healthy for the economy.

On inflation specifically it looks back at the last 12 months. June 2022, March 2022 and May 2022 were the highest monthly inflation rates during this cycle of inflation. By July, those will have rolled off and we should be well below 4% by July, probably closer to 3% and he will be taking victory laps on that. (Doesn't deserve to, but didn't deserve the blame he was getting either)
I agree 2008 was different. I just think balancing financial stability and dealing with inflation at the same time is above the pay grade of what the people in charge are qualified for. We need to get real financial savants in there because this is a real balancing act to combat both.
 
Rocket. Man I think inflation was primarily caused by tremendous increases in money supply. most economists even dems like Larry summers agree with that.I don’t know if you are familiar with Milton Friedman the first economist who convinced the Fed that money supply increases are a primary inflation cause.I was not implying woke as a cause rather money supply sorry you got confused by my comments.
 
I hate 99% of pols but Ron is a guy that gets positive results that benefit the people
You aren't going to hear anywhere near as much as you should about that from most of the mainstream media. The message was delivered a while ago about his potential attractiveness as a candidate -- remember the ill-fated 60 minutes hack-job that blew up? He will be painted as just short of Hitler, despite the fact that he just nailed 60% in a purple state winning voters and counties that are historically Democrat. Anyone being fair will look at his performance in Florida and, on balance, acknowledge he's done a good job. But those who don't want to be fair will pick the things he has said or done (or allegedly said and done) and based their entire opinion on those examples. Which, by the way, you can do with every single politician. I'm happy we have Biden instead of Trump, but if you want to apply that same standard for Biden pre-Presidency, my god you can fill the New York Public Library.
 
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Inflation rose all around the globe. Is Biden to blame for the entire globe?

I also take issue with the idea that people don't follow the inflation issue closely. It's something that everyone has to deal with in their daily lives, I'd say that it's a very important issue for almost everyone.

I don't really subscribe to the idea that you can blame Biden (or any single politician) for "the economy" at a given time anyway, but particularly about Biden, who has hardly done anything while in office. What do you think it is about Biden that caused this inflation? His wokeness?

The US economy is kind of the driver for the global economy.

I think his biggest financial mistakes were in the energy sector, putting a hard stop on gas-powered vehicles, trying to expedite alternative energy sources (which have failed badly, in practice, when relied upon to drive the grid), and shutting down/discouraging domestic energy production, which drove gas prices through the roof. To me, that's what has kicked off inflation here -- milk, bread, eggs weren't far behind the cost of diesel.
 
The US economy is kind of the driver for the global economy.

I think his biggest financial mistakes were in the energy sector, putting a hard stop on gas-powered vehicles, trying to expedite alternative energy sources (which have failed badly, in practice, when relied upon to drive the grid), and shutting down/discouraging domestic energy production, which drove gas prices through the roof. To me, that's what has kicked off inflation here -- milk, bread, eggs weren't far behind the cost of diesel.
I have disagree with you. There were multi-levels of the causes of prices to rise in various sectors.
What wasn't a cause was promoting electric driving vehicles. I am not sure what you mean he shut down domestic energy production. That is just not true.

And believe me, I am no one to really speak of this with any expertise. But I do realize there are so many causes to rising prices. this subject his so complicated that expert economists can't tell you an answer with 100% accuracy. But here are some big factors that I see.

1. The money that was pumped around not only the US (Trump and Biden) but the world due to CoVid was a big inflationary factor as cited by Robot and Ed.

2. CoVid also had a huge effect on oil prices. Trump made a deal with OPEC + to dramatically reduce production of oil because oil prices were collapsing due to drastically reduced demand and could collapse the US oil market. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45236

3. Due to Number 2 once the demand rose back to normal levels, OPEC + did not raise productions. Thus, rising demand and lower production caused rising gas prices. This is perhaps the biggest factor of gas price increase.

4. Oil production has taken a longer time to ramp back up in the US as well. Complicated issues but Forbes does a good job here trying to point out issues. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapie...lding-back-us-oil-production/?sh=5523f2416b6f

5. Oil Production in the US in 2022 was the second highest in history besides 2019. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapie...lding-back-us-oil-production/?sh=5523f2416b6f

6. Oil Production in 2023 outlook may be a record. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ar-as-inflation-bites?leadSource=uverify wall

6. Ukraine War effected gas prices due to the cutoff of Russain oil globally. But this war probably had a far more impact on food prices, especially globally.

7. Drought was a huge problem raising food prices in this country and globally.

This is just some factors and there are others.
 
I have disagree with you. There were multi-levels of the causes of prices to rise in various sectors.
What wasn't a cause was promoting electric driving vehicles. I am not sure what you mean he shut down domestic energy production. That is just not true.

And believe me, I am no one to really speak of this with any expertise. But I do realize there are so many causes to rising prices. this subject his so complicated that expert economists can't tell you an answer with 100% accuracy. But here are some big factors that I see.

1. The money that was pumped around not only the US (Trump and Biden) but the world due to CoVid was a big inflationary factor as cited by Robot and Ed.

2. CoVid also had a huge effect on oil prices. Trump made a deal with OPEC + to dramatically reduce production of oil because oil prices were collapsing due to drastically reduced demand and could collapse the US oil market. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45236

3. Due to Number 2 once the demand rose back to normal levels, OPEC + did not raise productions. Thus, rising demand and lower production caused rising gas prices. This is perhaps the biggest factor of gas price increase.

4. Oil production has taken a longer time to ramp back up in the US as well. Complicated issues but Forbes does a good job here trying to point out issues. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapie...lding-back-us-oil-production/?sh=5523f2416b6f

5. Oil Production in the US in 2022 was the second highest in history besides 2019. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapie...lding-back-us-oil-production/?sh=5523f2416b6f

6. Oil Production in 2023 outlook may be a record. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/oil-production-growth-to-slow-in-us-next-year-as-inflation-bites?leadSource=uverify wall

6. Ukraine War effected gas prices due to the cutoff of Russain oil globally. But this war probably had a far more impact on food prices, especially globally.

7. Drought was a huge problem raising food prices in this country and globally.

This is just some factors and there are others.
Good summary....perhaps Biden and Yellin should have read all this before calling out inflation as transitory....
 
I have disagree with you. There were multi-levels of the causes of prices to rise in various sectors.
What wasn't a cause was promoting electric driving vehicles. I am not sure what you mean he shut down domestic energy production. That is just not true.

And believe me, I am no one to really speak of this with any expertise. But I do realize there are so many causes to rising prices. this subject his so complicated that expert economists can't tell you an answer with 100% accuracy. But here are some big factors that I see.

1. The money that was pumped around not only the US (Trump and Biden) but the world due to CoVid was a big inflationary factor as cited by Robot and Ed.

2. CoVid also had a huge effect on oil prices. Trump made a deal with OPEC + to dramatically reduce production of oil because oil prices were collapsing due to drastically reduced demand and could collapse the US oil market. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45236

3. Due to Number 2 once the demand rose back to normal levels, OPEC + did not raise productions. Thus, rising demand and lower production caused rising gas prices. This is perhaps the biggest factor of gas price increase.

4. Oil production has taken a longer time to ramp back up in the US as well. Complicated issues but Forbes does a good job here trying to point out issues. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapie...lding-back-us-oil-production/?sh=5523f2416b6f

5. Oil Production in the US in 2022 was the second highest in history besides 2019. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapie...lding-back-us-oil-production/?sh=5523f2416b6f

6. Oil Production in 2023 outlook may be a record. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/oil-production-growth-to-slow-in-us-next-year-as-inflation-bites?leadSource=uverify wall

6. Ukraine War effected gas prices due to the cutoff of Russain oil globally. But this war probably had a far more impact on food prices, especially globally.

7. Drought was a huge problem raising food prices in this country and globally.

This is just some factors and there are others.
This is a great response to what amounts to a vibes-based argument (Biden put a hard stop on gas-powered vehicles? Are you kidding me, man?). I would only add that the Biden administration just approved a massive oil drilling project in Alaska, much to the anger of the Left and climate activists.

It's just another fruitless attempt at political triangulation by democrats over the past few decades. I don't know when they're going to realize that it falls on deaf ears.
 
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Putting people in positions based on how they check a box as opposed to who is most qualified is an issue. Wokeness hasn't helped. It's not the cause but better people, including the ones who happen to be dare I say it straight white males, could've handled it better.
If only Jay Powell were a straight white male!
 
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If only Jay Powell were a straight white male!
Well there goes my theory. Because you found one person and even a few more, this administration doesn't have people in roles because they check a box.

Imagine a thread on black head NFL coaches. If I did what you did, and pointed out Todd Bowles, would you say that's enough to get rid of the Rooney Rule? My guess is no.

Bottom line is there's plenty of people in good positions because they check a box.
 
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Well there goes my theory. Because you found one person and even a few more, this administration doesn't have people in roles because they check a box.

It's like saying there's an NFL coach who is black, so they don't need to diversify more. They can get rid of the Rooney rule because Todd Bowles is a head coach.

Bottom line is there's plenty of people in good positions because they check a box.
Why don't you tell me some people who are in their positions because they check a box?
 
Kamala Harris
Rachel Levine
Pete Buttigieg
Lloyd Austin

Just a few examples...
Okay, so to be clear you're saying that these people aren't actually qualified for the jobs they're currently serving in the administration?

I do agree that Pete Buttigieg was and is not qualified to be Secretary of Transportation. However, I would say he was appointed to that position to return the favor for Buttigieg endorsing Biden during the primary. He's not there because he checks a box.
 
Okay, so to be clear you're saying that these people aren't actually qualified for the jobs they're currently serving in the administration?

I do agree that Pete Buttigieg was and is not qualified to be Secretary of Transportation. However, I would say he was appointed to that position to return the favor for Buttigieg endorsing Biden during the primary. He's not there because he checks a box.
Rachel Levine was a check the box position in Pennsylvania even before Biden did the same.
 
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