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25% of Americans will not take COVID Vaccine

I thankfully got a ticket for Wednesday night but I have decided not to go. The variant news is getting worse by the day and I unfortunately think their will be some spread of the virus at the game.
I’m not entirely sure whether your aim is to sarcastically call out the year long fear porn published by MSM and pols or you are truly worried.
 
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That may be true.
Since, you know the play book, can you define what that looks like?

Assume hospitalizations and deaths are very low, the vaccine is effective and everyone who wants to get vaccinated will be vaccinated at some point by the end of June.

What would be the ideal action from a governor as of July 1st?
What do you think Murphy will do that is self serving?
He didn’t wait to reopen until July last year-why would he this year? Guy opened amusement and water parks last summer!!! Then said kids can’t go to school. Stop your nonsense questions
 
I’m not entirely sure whether your aim is to sarcastically call out the year long fear porn published by MSM and pols or you are truly worried.

The latter. I am not going because the recent trends the last few days. @Merge is not up to date with the latest data. RT rate is almost at 1 and cases)hospitalizations have been increasing the last few days. Ms Judy mentioned in today's article she expects hospitalizations and cases to "creep up" the next few days because of the variants. Please remember I did predict this.

 
He didn’t wait to reopen until July last year-why would he this year? Guy opened amusement and water parks last summer!!! Then said kids can’t go to school. Stop your nonsense questions

The risk outdoors is different than the risk indoors but we have a vaccine now so things are different.

I am just asking what your view is regarding how he should respond that would not be self serving?
 
The risk outdoors is different than the risk indoors but we have a vaccine now so things are different.

I am just asking what your view is regarding how he should respond that would not be self serving?
Layup question: stand up to the teachers union
 
The President keeps moving his goalpost. He said he could see a somewhat normal for Christmas 2021. Now he is seeing we will probably be back to normal in March 2022. A year from now!

 
Ok... So things are improving, hospitalizations and deaths are down and the action you want Murphy to take is to stand up to the teachers union?
Ok... So things are improving, hospitalizations and deaths are down and the action you want Murphy to take is to stand up to the teachers union?
He should’ve months ago but he doesn’t care
Well off kids are learning
The vast majority aren’t
And he doesn’t care

so you think he shouldn’t try to do something?
 
He should’ve months ago but he doesn’t care
Well off kids are learning
The vast majority aren’t
And he doesn’t care

so you think he shouldn’t try to do something?

Teachers union actually pushed to go 100% virtual this year. He rejected that.
 
@Merge Hello. RT rate is .99. Ms Judy expects the RT to go above 1 tomorrow. Ms Judy has been warning about the outbreak to go above 1 for awhile now. She warned us if we couldn't get down to .7 we would not be able to avoid a march spike.

 
Watch the video. Toward the end of the video. Did the Governor just admit he's never removing his indoor mask EO? It looks like I will be right! We will be wearing masks for a very long time.

 
Hello. Nj cases up 14% from the previous week. RT now stands at 1.01. Its ok if you do not want to listen but there will be a variant surge.
 
Also interesting read below. I remember reading from this doctor just a couple weeks ago how he was optimistic about the effectiveness of the vaccine. That optimism has now faded completely. He is now "losing sleep at night" because he thinks variants are going to evade immunity.


 
@Merge Hello. Positivity rates increasing week over week for a few counties and NJ went up from "Moderate" to "High". Rt is above 1. Is the outbreak increasing or decreasing? It appears I am going to be right. We are heading toward a variant spike this month.

 
Positivity rate and hospitalizations still trending downwards.
Data isn't always smooth. It will bounce a bit, but draw a trendline from the peak in January.

Still headed in the right direction. Still on track with vaccinations.
 
Positivity rate and hospitalizations still trending downwards.
Data isn't always smooth. It will bounce a bit, but draw a trendline from the peak in January.

Still headed in the right direction. Still on track with vaccinations.

This is not correct. Positivity rate went up week over week in NJ.
 
btw, that number is 5.84% for the last 7 days. Lowest positivity rate in a week in 4 months.

Currently hospitalized in the state with Covid is the lowest it has been since November 12th.
 
7 day US average positivity rate is currently at the lowest point of this entire ordeal.
 
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7 day US average positivity rate is currently at the lowest point of this entire ordeal.

Yep, and lowest number of patients hospitalized with Covid since October 26th.

Those metrics combined with the rate of vaccination is why I am optimistic on returning to normal
 
Same thing it did back when I posted this..


Rt is useful but has seems a better as an estimate for what has occurred and not what will occur.

The most reliable metrics for the current environment is the change in the positivity rate and the change in new hospitalization. It’s been fairly consistent that once you see the positivity rate go up, hospitalizations are about to increase and happens on the down swing as well.


That's the thing about finding the right metrics to use. Once you believe you have the right metrics to understand the trend, you get to let the data tell the story instead of hunting for the data that will tell the story you want to it to tell. Funny that you never post about rt on a down trend...

Positivity rate and change in hospitalizations.
Those are the metrics I let tell me what is happening.
 
Same thing it did back when I posted this..





That's the thing about finding the right metrics to use. Once you believe you have the right metrics to understand the trend, you get to let the data tell the story instead of hunting for the data that will tell the story you want to it to tell. Funny that you never post about rt on a down trend...

Positivity rate and change in hospitalizations.
Those are the metrics I let tell me what is happening.

Please answer my question. What does a RT above 1 mean?
 
It's a lagging indicator as it measures what has happened in the previous week, not what's happening now.
 
That each person who was infected with Covid about 7-14 days ago infected 1.06 other people on average.

As 09 pointed out, it a measure of what happened. Not where we are going.
 
Dr Osterholm has been a voice of reason during this pandemic. He will be right again. Osterholm said that we are walking into a "monster" because of the variant risk increasing and states opening up. Because of these circumstances he sees another high surge in March and April.

@Merge Should we listen to experts such as Osterholm and Fauci? Or no?

 
Dr. Osterholm has been a panic inducing wannabe tyrant. Wrong too many times to count.
 
That is probably the highest compliment someone could receive in PirateCrew!
I agree, and I meant it that way. He seldom goes into the weeds, is rational and intelligent, just maybe a bit too responsive to the troll. I don’t always agree with him, and he is a bit of a generalist, but his debates are always the best.
 
Dr. Osterholm has been a panic inducing wannabe tyrant. Wrong too many times to count.

You agree states opening up with no mask mandates? You don't think the virus will spread faster again in those states? This will not push back our recovery?
 
You agree states opening up with no mask mandates? You don't think the virus will spread faster again in those states? This will not push back our recovery?

Yes. Governments should not force their citizens to wear masks. If businesses want to, that is their right. If people want to wear it, fine, go ahead. Just don't force people who don't want to.
 
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