From ESPN : Major point highlighted in bold at bottom
“In the past three NCAA tournament selections, we've seen a team ranked as high on the NET as No. 38 (North Texas 2023) left out of the field entirely. Conversely, a team ranked No. 77 (Rutgers 2022) did earn an at-large bid.
Clearly the NET isn't the only factor driving projections by mock brackets or, for that matter, actual decisions by the committee. Nevertheless, there are tendencies that have surfaced over the past three Selection Sundays.
Start with the extremes already noted. No team ranked higher than No. 38 in the NET has missed the cut in the past three years. At the same time, no team lower than No. 77 has earned an at-large bid over that span. Call this range from Nos. 38 to 77 the NET's temperate zone.
These boundaries aren't etched in granite. If the committee loves a team's profile next month, the members won't be stopped in their tracks just because the NET ranking happens to be No. 78.
Still, history suggests the odds of an at-large bid do grow significantly longer as NET rankings become lower. In the past three years, a ranking in the mid-50s in the NET, for example, has provided one rough rule of thumb.
At-large candidates in the range from Nos. 38 to 55 have made it into the field about half the time. On the other hand, at-large hopefuls from Nos. 56 to 77 have received good news in just 12% of the cases.“
We have a lot of work to do still. If you think simply beating St Johns and Butler will be enough, you’re mistaken. Winning those games will simply keep us from dropping further.
We either have to beat UConn or Creighton like I said earlier or we have to handily beat all the other teams and play extremely tight against the big 2 and that still might not be enough.
When your two biggest wins are months in the past and metrics like ours the committee will love to keep us out. Not fight to put us in.
“In the past three NCAA tournament selections, we've seen a team ranked as high on the NET as No. 38 (North Texas 2023) left out of the field entirely. Conversely, a team ranked No. 77 (Rutgers 2022) did earn an at-large bid.
Clearly the NET isn't the only factor driving projections by mock brackets or, for that matter, actual decisions by the committee. Nevertheless, there are tendencies that have surfaced over the past three Selection Sundays.
Start with the extremes already noted. No team ranked higher than No. 38 in the NET has missed the cut in the past three years. At the same time, no team lower than No. 77 has earned an at-large bid over that span. Call this range from Nos. 38 to 77 the NET's temperate zone.
These boundaries aren't etched in granite. If the committee loves a team's profile next month, the members won't be stopped in their tracks just because the NET ranking happens to be No. 78.
Still, history suggests the odds of an at-large bid do grow significantly longer as NET rankings become lower. In the past three years, a ranking in the mid-50s in the NET, for example, has provided one rough rule of thumb.
At-large candidates in the range from Nos. 38 to 55 have made it into the field about half the time. On the other hand, at-large hopefuls from Nos. 56 to 77 have received good news in just 12% of the cases.“
We have a lot of work to do still. If you think simply beating St Johns and Butler will be enough, you’re mistaken. Winning those games will simply keep us from dropping further.
We either have to beat UConn or Creighton like I said earlier or we have to handily beat all the other teams and play extremely tight against the big 2 and that still might not be enough.
When your two biggest wins are months in the past and metrics like ours the committee will love to keep us out. Not fight to put us in.
