Bubble watch
- Thread starter NittanyPirate
- Start date
We were winning by 15 against UCONN when Clingan went out in the 2nd half.
Correct, just looked up the play by play. Clingan went out at 16:31 of the second half with Seton Hall up 4 and Bediako at the line. He made both and SH led by 6.
you have the SOS of all the other bubble teams? take a look. so many years our SOS was stellar and did nothing for us. Quad 1 wins mean more. it means you won not your opponents
11 non conference games. 5 high major opponents of which 2 were ranked at the time we played them. Of which 1 was in the top 10. Our 6 cupcakes were no different than any other high major cupcakes.
You really can’t knock out non conference schedule all that much as 3/5 underperformed Preseason expectations. IF RU, Iowa and USC were still in the NCAA discussion our non conference strength would show much better. Are we supposed to schedule 7 out of 11 non conference games vs high majors prior to the gauntlet big east? Come on. Maybe you replace FDU or Albany with an A10 team, but that won’t help metrics or strength all that much
And if we actually WON one of RU, Iowa and USC, wouldn’t be a discussion.
Turned out they were subpar. But more importantly, we LOST.
2/27 results (bubble) *nearing lock
(Iowa) 90 PSU 81
Kentucky 91 *Miss St 89
(Villanova) 75 Georgetown 47
Clemson 69 (Pitt) 62
Notre Dame 70 (Wake) 65 ouch
*Texas 81 TTU 69
*Boise St 79 Air Force 48
(Nevada) 77 *Colorado St 74
2/28 bubble games
(Seton Hall) @ Creighton
(Providence) @ Marquette
*Northwestern @ Maryland
(JMU) @ Georgia St
* Oklahoma @ Iowa State
California @ (Colorado)
(Indiana State) @ Evansville
So Carolina @ (A&M)
(St John’s) @ (Butler)
Alabama @ (Ole Miss)
(Virginia) @ BC
Oregon State @ Oregon
(Iowa) 90 PSU 81
Kentucky 91 *Miss St 89
(Villanova) 75 Georgetown 47
Clemson 69 (Pitt) 62
Notre Dame 70 (Wake) 65 ouch
*Texas 81 TTU 69
*Boise St 79 Air Force 48
(Nevada) 77 *Colorado St 74
2/28 bubble games
(Seton Hall) @ Creighton
(Providence) @ Marquette
*Northwestern @ Maryland
(JMU) @ Georgia St
* Oklahoma @ Iowa State
California @ (Colorado)
(Indiana State) @ Evansville
So Carolina @ (A&M)
(St John’s) @ (Butler)
Alabama @ (Ole Miss)
(Virginia) @ BC
Oregon State @ Oregon
FINAL
Wake Forest
65
Notre Dame
70
Box
Notre Dame 70-65 Wake Forest (Feb 27, 2024) Box Score - ESPN
Box score for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons NCAAM game from February 27, 2024 on ESPN. Includes all points, rebounds and steals stats.
Yup Tae helping out big bro with a big bucket at the end.
Most know what you are saying. The issue is how the NET is playing out now.
We beat an in the bubble Butler team that while struggling is still in the conversation. We dominated the game and our NET moved up 1.
Last night, Nova beat a horrendous Georgetown team in an admittedly dominating and efficient performance and moved up 4 slots.
I know we struggled with Georgetown. I know we are not as efficient as Nova when Nova is sharp.
However, last night is an easy example of the problems with the NET system.
Jayden started out rough but hit his last 4 straight all net. Looked like he was relieved once he saw one go through.
I’ll say it every time the NET is brought up. It is pure TRASH and should be thrown out as such. Any system that ranks a sub .500 team in conference ahead of a team that is 11-5 who beat them 2x head to head has ZERO value. SJU until beating Creighton their best win was a home win against Utah. They are 2-9 in Quad 1. What am I missing?
exactly. Then what's the point in these ranking systems if sub .500 teams with less quad 1 wins are ahead of us and other teams
I got no time for watching people blow bubbles, that's a kids game. Just keep winning!
FWIW
Kenpom
Kenpom
| 52 | Xavier | BE | 13-14 | +13.97 | ||||||||||||||||
| 53 | Providence | BE | 18-9 | +13.95 | ||||||||||||||||
| 54 | Pittsburgh | ACC | 18-10 | +13.89 | ||||||||||||||||
| 55 | Seton Hall | BE | 18-9 | +13.51 | ||||||||||||||||
| 56 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 15-13 | +13.16 |
Maybe you are missing their great game against the Michigan juggernaut in MSG. They lost by 15. But they were very efficient n that loss. And they gave BC a very tough game too in that loss.
I am so confused still.
We are projected to be IN the field of 68 and would even avoid Dayton in most projections. 107 out of 115 in the field.
St John’s is not even projected to be a last 4 out type of team. Not even a next four out type of team. So the lazy Bracketologist (and they are) have SJU out of the field in 113 out of 115 published brackets.
Which means that the NET which is a sorting tool, NOT a ranking tool is being considered to evaluate quality of opponent played, but is NOT the be all end all for those projecting the field.
The computer likes SJU over SHU because SOS for them is 14th compared to our 52.
We are projected to be IN the field of 68 and would even avoid Dayton in most projections. 107 out of 115 in the field.
St John’s is not even projected to be a last 4 out type of team. Not even a next four out type of team. So the lazy Bracketologist (and they are) have SJU out of the field in 113 out of 115 published brackets.
Which means that the NET which is a sorting tool, NOT a ranking tool is being considered to evaluate quality of opponent played, but is NOT the be all end all for those projecting the field.
The computer likes SJU over SHU because SOS for them is 14th compared to our 52.
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The computer likes SJU over SHU because they are a better team. I know that is not what people want to hear, but if Seton Hall and St. John's played tomorrow on a neutral court St. John's would be favored. If anyone thinks that is incorrect, go ahead and bet against the sportsbooks. See how that works out for you.
Now, that does not mean (nor should it mean) that St. John's had a better season than Seton Hall. Nor does it mean that St. John's deserves to be in the NCAA tournament over Seton Hall. We have a better resume, and have had a better season, than St. Johns.
It amazes me that people are still confused by this.
It's laughable to argue that St. Johns is the better team when they got swept head-to-head and are 3.5 games back in a conference that plays a home and home schedule. They're also 2-9 in Q1 games, while SHU is 5-5. On what planet is St. Johns a better team?
Do they have better talent? Perhaps. Are they a better team? No.
They sportsbooks -- who have millions of dollars invested in this -- believe St. John's is 3-4 points better than Seton Hall.
I think he misspoke, he is saying "better team" in terms of the metrics that these statical evaluators put out.
SOS, quad wins, margin of victory etc.
Seton Halls metrics got skewed due to early losses in the non con
Sportsbook use the same systems to set lines as the KenPoms of the world. Take a look at KenPom projected spread vs the book, they're almost always right on. Theyr'e not infallible and SHU sweeping St. Johns makes this a bad claim.
SHU sweeping St. John's just means Seton Hall played better on two occasions. USC and Rutgers are not better than Seton Hall simply because they beat us.
By my math the entire season shows we have been better.
St. Johns 2-9 in Q1 games
Seton Hall 5-5 in Q1 games
St. Johns 8-9 Big East
Seton Hall 11-5 Big East
St. Johns 16 wins
Seton Hall 18 wins
Should I go on?
I’ve already agreed that Seton Hall has a better resume, and has had a better season, than St. John’s. I’ve also agreed we deserve to be in the tournament over St. John’s.
That doesn’t mean Seton Hall is a better team. Those are two different things. Which is where many people seem to get hung up when it comes to metrics.
St. John's is not the better team. Seton Hall is the better team and has proved it on the court, twice, where it actually matters. Not in some made-up theoretical statistic, but in reality.
If they have a better resume and have had a better season and beat them twice then SHU is the better TEAM. Geez!
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Well this is the inherent issue with the deep statistical metric and how to take it in context versus results. Seton Hall has also been better in close games.
KenPom is all data driven.
St. John’s is 35th in offensive efficiency. Seton Hall is 82nd.
St, John’s is 50th in defensive efficiency. Seton Hall is 41st.
St. John’s is 41st overall, Seton Hall 55th.
Not disagreeing. But what do the actual results tell us?
Thats all that concerns me right now. That’s why we’re likely an NCAA Tournament team and they’re not.
But these stats are a great glimpse into how a team plays and how they need to win. We don’t have a lot of firepower and it kills us.
St. John’s is likely to finish 19-12, 11-9 and a threat a MSG. They are better then a 6-9 BE team which is where we left them IMO.
