Dr. Fauci gives grim projection
- Thread starter NYShoreGuy
- Start date
Since they really had very few cases in the first place, it can be seen as good. Is it a bad thing?
Depends on your definition of bad I suppose. Again, you can't really look at this data like a faucet.
It's not like you turn it back on and you get a flood a day later, it is more of looking at the situation on the ground currently and what that means for the state weeks down the road.
Number of cases is part of the story, but with so many undiagnosed cases it is hard to know if there is an actual trend of the spread of the virus being worse or not.
In Georgia, positive test rates are on the rise, hospitalizations are on the rise and the 7 day death rate is on the rise.
None of that is good news but it is somewhat concerning.I wouldn't go as far as saying it's bad news relative to their ability to manage the hospital utilization. Are they taking enough precautions to keep the r0 around 1? They will be fine if so. Does the situation on the ground today mean they aren't taking enough precautions and the r0 will trend up towards 3? They may have some issues if so.
As of today, I'd think they are managing their risks well enough and won't stress their healthcare system.
Not a good thing at all hospitalizations are going up. People on this board who were pro opening up kept on saying that hospitalizations will keep going down in Georgia. However the numbers say the opposite. Just saying many people on this board have been wrong about Georgia.
Look what happened in Jacksonville Beach, not good and one person worked at the Mayo Clinic
Yep dozens of people contracted the virus from a handful of bars. Now those bars are closed. Reopening is really beginning to backfire. More to come.
NJ will be closed again but in late September, early October. You heard it here first! Boy this second wave is going to very very brutal.
Politicians lost control letting thousands protest and riot without masks and social distancing. Who didn’t see that coming?
Surge was happening way before the protests if you were reviewing the county by county numbers on a daily basis . Also if you have been following the projections this is nothing surprising. I'm assuming you read about the new projections about the from October 2020 outlook?
Yep. And I have been predicting a spike for months now. Even not considering the protest. Opening up state economies will make the outbreak a lot worse. And opening up will just even devastate the economy more. Most states will close again.
7-day averages for new hospitalizations in GA over the last 2 weeks:
6/3/2020 - 108
6/4/2020 - 113
6/5/2020 - 113
6/6/2020 - 106
6/7/2020 - 106
6/8/2020 - 88
6/9/2020 - 77
6/10/2020 - 79
6/11/2020 - 74
6/12/2020 - 76
6/13/2020 - 80
6/14/2020 - 80
6/15/2020 - 82
6/16/2020 - 85
9,248 hospitalizations. 72 increase from the day before.
https://www.wjcl.com/article/corona...spitalizations-40-deaths-in-past-day/32870990
Well I can't wait for tomorrow too. Tomorrow is the 3 month anniversary of my self quarantine. I am getting interviewed by my town paper for my experience. They are labeling me as a brave citizen who is staying home and saving lives. There will be a video interview too. As I will be saying in the interview I don't see my self as anyone special. This is just the smart and common sense thing for me to do. I will continue to stay at home until at least the end of 2020.
72 people were hospitalized yesterday. That is not alarming. Also, each day of the week has different reporting structures. That’s why you take 7-day averages.
From where I got my data, I see 74 new hospitalizations on Monday compared with 61 the prior Monday. That is not alarming at all.
Not sure how politicians could take control over spontaneous protests. Nor do I think you can attribute a large number of cases indicating a surge to protests since the largest protests were mostly in states with declining cases ( # and hospitalization). See Washington state. Furthermore, if you break it down by county, the more rural counties are experiencing surge across the country.
I shouldn’t have said surge. I should have said not in decline particularly in the south.
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
Guest
Where’s Waldo? Isn’t that governor in those picture?
Amazing just takes walking in a protest to keep getting the black vote despite keeping them in poverty all these years.
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
Guest
The Greystone Gazette? Makes sense why you haven't been outside in 3 months now...
Interview is today. As I have been practicing the past month I will be wearing a mask while streaming from my home. Can't wait to be interviewed. The paper will also take a picture of me later in the year when I come out of the house for the first time with my hazmat suit on.
To continue, let's look at the Tuesday vs a week ago Tuesday numbers:
132 new hospitalizations on Tuesday compared with 126 the prior Tuesday.
I can't even post a snarky comment on this ridiculousness.
Tuesday was the 3rd highest daily increase in hospitalizations in the last month.
7 day average of new hospitalizations peaked on April 13th and was on a steady decline until May 11th which was the low for the 7 day average and it has been higher each day since then.
There was a pretty clear decline and a plateau with a small uptick after that. Still quite manageable though.
Tony Fauci, MD has advised the NFL not to have a season this year:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/18/us/football-happen-fauci-spt-trnd/index.html
Also it appears Florida will become the next epicenter of the Coronavirus. Bad news for the people that wanted the state to reopen. Florida will be closing again soon.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/18/us/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/18/us/football-happen-fauci-spt-trnd/index.html
Also it appears Florida will become the next epicenter of the Coronavirus. Bad news for the people that wanted the state to reopen. Florida will be closing again soon.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/18/us/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html
That's not what he said, or advised, if you read your own link. Speaking of, please share the link with us for your "local paper." I want to read the interview with the village idiot that they did yesterday.
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
Guest
It's online! You can search it. I won't share a link with someone that calls me the "village idiot". The mayor of my town is calling me a hero for doing the right thing and staying home.
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Are the positive test rates rising because they are doing more tests?
Are the deaths of people who contracted the virus before the re-opening?
% of tests with a positive result has been increasing.
In Georgia
First 17 days in May - 202,131 tests report - 11,546 positive - 486 deaths reported during that time period
First 17 days in June - 184,942 tests report - 13,044 positive - 533 deaths reported during that time period.
5.7% positive rate up to 7.1%
Add in the context of NJ for comparison.
First 17 days in May - 211,965 tests report - 27,682 positive - 3,586 deaths reported during that time period
First 17 days in June - 394,438 tests report - 7,258 positive - 1,135 deaths reported during that time period.
13% positive rate down to 1.8%
If we are controlling the spread and getting better at testing, the % positive rate should be on the decline.
Can't really answer the 2nd question since we don't know when people contract the virus.
I participated in a Webinar today that featured Dr. Mike Olsterholm as the speaker. He has done a lot on multiple pandemics all you need to to is put his name in the search field of your browser and it's pretty easy to validate his credentials. Made a few notes of his observations:
In order to get herd immunity, approximately 60-70% of the population needs to have appropriate immunizing antibodies. We are at about 3% of the population now.
Models predicting the course of this pandemic are all wrong. They have not verified anything thus far. However, based on prior experience we might see (covering all his base):
a) a slow burn of the virus through the population until we reach the 60-70% mark above.
b) a house-on-fire disaster like happened in NY and is now happening in new Deli India
c) could be like influenza like the H1N1 event that happened in the 2000s and the epidemic burned it’s self out. This influenza was not seasonal.
We don’t know why influenza behaves the way it does and we do not know what the behavior of COVID-19 will be. He said “The more I study this virus the less I know”.
Treatment does NOT change the infectivity of the virus, it does change the morbidity and mortality. This is because it is often transmitted prior to requiring treatment
There are many ‘experts’ on the media pontificating about what will happen, but the fact is there is still a great deal that is not known about this virus.
To be successful controlling the virus one must live on an island. New Zealand and Iceland have been relatively successful. New Zealand has just reported a few new cases however.
The Chinese are still dealing with the first episode of the viral disease. They have been able to suppress it because of the draconian edicts the government has been able to place on the population. But they are in Whack-a-mole mode now.
In order for there to be a second wave there must be a world wide lull in viral activity and then a resurgence.
It is not known why some areas, after opening up, have a great resurgence in infections while others have none.
No one knows if contact tracing will be effective. This is because the virus can be transmitted before the patient is symptomatic.
In order to get herd immunity, approximately 60-70% of the population needs to have appropriate immunizing antibodies. We are at about 3% of the population now.
Models predicting the course of this pandemic are all wrong. They have not verified anything thus far. However, based on prior experience we might see (covering all his base):
a) a slow burn of the virus through the population until we reach the 60-70% mark above.
b) a house-on-fire disaster like happened in NY and is now happening in new Deli India
c) could be like influenza like the H1N1 event that happened in the 2000s and the epidemic burned it’s self out. This influenza was not seasonal.
We don’t know why influenza behaves the way it does and we do not know what the behavior of COVID-19 will be. He said “The more I study this virus the less I know”.
Treatment does NOT change the infectivity of the virus, it does change the morbidity and mortality. This is because it is often transmitted prior to requiring treatment
There are many ‘experts’ on the media pontificating about what will happen, but the fact is there is still a great deal that is not known about this virus.
To be successful controlling the virus one must live on an island. New Zealand and Iceland have been relatively successful. New Zealand has just reported a few new cases however.
The Chinese are still dealing with the first episode of the viral disease. They have been able to suppress it because of the draconian edicts the government has been able to place on the population. But they are in Whack-a-mole mode now.
In order for there to be a second wave there must be a world wide lull in viral activity and then a resurgence.
It is not known why some areas, after opening up, have a great resurgence in infections while others have none.
No one knows if contact tracing will be effective. This is because the virus can be transmitted before the patient is symptomatic.
Dr. Mike brought up good points. Only 5%-7% of the population has been infected. So that does mean this virus will probably last a few years. Crazy to think we can be wearing masks and social distancing for the next 3 to 4 years with no vaccine. Dr. Mike also said its also not a good thing that cases go down in a specific area. That could just mean a second big wave in the fall.
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
Guest
Wait so this whole time we shouldn't it been trying to flatten the curve? Now it was bad to try and make cases go down ? We should of just let it ravage the community? Damn that stinks I should of been in Albany watching greatness from MP. You flip flop daily along with the other Coronabros.
Huh? You realize 12,800 people have died in 3 MONTHS in NJ because of this virus. So yes I do believe we needed to flatten the curve. It takes a long time to reach herd immunity. We just have to all realize it will be like this for the next few years if you like it or not. We are in a pandemic. It just doesn't disappear after a few months. This will last a few years. Get used to it. There will be no college basketball next year.
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anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0
Guest
You said it's not a good thing if cases go down in an area. So what was the point of flattening the curve?
